Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2013

Mesoscale Discussion 1663

August 7, 201310 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 7, 2013, 9:02 PM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 7, 2013, 9:02 PM CDT (02:02 UTC)
Expired
Aug 7, 2013, 10:30 PM CDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 22 counties

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Harper County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Major County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2013-08-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1037 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2013-08-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -2 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1037 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-27 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1270 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

355 
ACUS11 KWNS 080203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080202 
OKZ000-KSZ000-080330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...SWRN/S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 080202Z - 080330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SMALL LINE SEGMENT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE EWD...AND MAY EXIT WW 483 DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IF
THIS OCCURS...THEN THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NWRN
OK INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL KS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
LIKELY WW.

DISCUSSION...AS DISCUSSED IN MCD 1662...THE COMBINATION OF ELY WINDS
IN THE 1-2 KM AGL LAYER AND A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY/STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS TONIGHT. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS
OF THIS TAKING PLACE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE...WHERE A SMALL LINE
SEGMENT HAS INCREASED ITS EWD MOTION TO 30 KT. GIVEN THIS
TREND...ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN OK AND
SWRN/S-CNTRL KS DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..GARNER/GOSS.. 08/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36520001 37839982 38259862 37699753 36139762 35609837
            35579922 35839980 36520001

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 7, 8:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Greeley and 9 more89 min
Aug 7, 10:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Butler, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Harper and 8 more7 hr
Aug 7, 11:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Finney, Ford, Gray, Greeley, Haskell and 4 more60 min
Aug 8, 3:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Coffey, Cowley and 15 more87 min
Aug 8, 3:57 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Chase, Chautauqua, Cherokee and 12 more3 hr
Aug 8, 3:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Cimarron, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 2 more60 min
Aug 8, 3:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaver, Beckham, Cimarron, Custer, Dewey, Greer and 7 more9 hr
Aug 8, 5:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 30 more88 min
Aug 8, 5:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 1 more66 min
Aug 8, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Cherokee, Creek, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer and 11 more6 hr
Aug 8, 6:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 22 more8 hr
Aug 8, 6:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Cimarron, Custer, Dewey, Greer and 7 more88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2013Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2013Every mesoscale discussion in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.