Small Craft Advisory 37, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

699 
WHUS71 KPHI 030820
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013

ANZ430-431-452>455-032100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0037.130403T1800Z-130404T0400Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
420 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
  KNOTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

* SEAS...3 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 3 FEET ON DELAWARE
  BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-032100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-130404T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
420 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR
  30 KNOTS.

* SEAS...3 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

IOVINO

910 
WHUS71 KPHI 031939
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

ANZ450-451-040400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-130404T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
339 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

* SEAS...3 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL... SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-452>455-040400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-130404T0400Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
339 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
  KNOTS.

* SEAS...3 TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 3 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL... SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD.

&&

$$

206 
WHUS71 KPHI 040352
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1152 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

ANZ430-431-040500-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-130404T0400Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1152 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT.
  
$$

ANZ452>455-040800-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-130404T0800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1152 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. HIGHEST GUSTS
  EARLY.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL... SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-040800-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-130404T0800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
1152 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. HIGHEST
  GUSTS EARLY.

* SEAS...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL... SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

117 
WHUS71 KPHI 040757
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013

 
ANZ452>455-042200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-130404T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0038.130405T1000Z-130406T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
357 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS...ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD START CLOSE TO
  SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL... SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD.
 
&&

$$

ANZ450-451-042200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-130404T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0038.130405T1000Z-130406T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
357 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS...ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...3 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD START DURING
  FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A
SMALL VESSEL... SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-042200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0038.130405T1000Z-130406T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
357 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY.

* WINDS...ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* TIMING...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE
  NOON ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 PM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION
LATE THURSDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD DURING FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION
SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY
OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO GRADUALLY
SETTLE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COOL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
MID LEVEL LOW REMAINING OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD. OVERALL, AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING, THE
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE, AS WILL
THE WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN OVERALL DRY AIR MASS, AND WE
EXPECT A MAINLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ALONG
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL
BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS. WE USED A BLEND OF STAT GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY AND EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OUR WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MID
LEVEL LOW WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR EASTERN CANADA. EARLY IN
THE DAY, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THIS FEATURE WILL
PASS OVER OUR REGION. AS THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT WE WILL SEE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AS THE OVERALL GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, WE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER 50S FROM SOUTHERN NJ AND INTO THE
DELMARVA. OVERALL, A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH CONTINUITY
WAS USED FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A LINGERING TROUGH FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED BRIEFLY AS A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THIS TROUGH OVERALL IS STILL PRESENT THROUGH FRIDAY, WE
LOOK TO THE SOUTH AS ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE THEN SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH
IT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PATTERN MAY CHANGE FROM A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW TOWARD AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING OUT WEST ALLOWS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN
THE EAST TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FARTHER OUT
IN TIME, THE DETAILS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED FEATURES ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER
SCALE SHORT WAVES. WE USED A MODEL BLEND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN SWITCHED TO HPC GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD. SOME
TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST AS WE
START WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH SHOULD START TO RELAX SOME AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. THIS SURFACE HIGH
THOUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE COURSE OF
THURSDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THURSDAY, AND
THEREFORE AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY
WELL. WE THEN LOOK TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS A CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD LATE THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IMPINGING ON OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
INCREASING CHC OF SOME RAIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAIN SYSTEM OCCURS DURING A PORTION OF
THIS TIME FRAME. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO EXIT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST DURING FRIDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLIDING TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FARTHER EAST
COMPARED TO OTHERS, HOWEVER THE GENERAL THEME IS PLACING THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS IS A
RESULT OF THE MAIN FORCING FOCUSED ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES ON
EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE A DECENT MOISTURE FEED INTO IT,
HOWEVER WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS BEING TRANSIENT ENOUGH WHICH WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE AMOUNTS MOSTLY IN CHECK. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE WINDS AS THE FLOW SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AS THE STORM
SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN WEAKER COMPARED TO
OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE THE GFS, HOWEVER EVEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS
925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO EVEN
WINDY CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG OUR COAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ON BY.

WE LEANED TOWARD A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOLUTION AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY. THERE IS HOWEVER THE CHC THAT THE SURFACE LOW
DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE AS MUCH UNTIL IT TRACKS AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
THIS WOULD LEAVE A SECONDARY LOW LAGGING BEHIND, WHICH WOULD TEND TO
FAVOR A LONGER NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS OF NOW, WE FAVORED A
MORE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW THAT ENDS UP TRACKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT THE POPS
CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WITH THE HIGHEST /CATEGORICAL/ ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. WE DID HOWEVER TIGHTEN UP THE POP
GRADIENT WITH A WESTERN EXTENT AND ALSO SLOWED THE INLAND INCREASE
AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT LOOKS TO TAPER OFF A GOOD AMOUNT THE FARTHER
NORTHWEST ONE GOES ACROSS OUR CWA.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING FAR ENOUGH AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT TO END ANY
REMAINING RAIN IN THE EVENING. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY, WITH ANY ONSHORE
WIND COMPONENT TRENDING TO LESSEN THROUGH THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. A
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT AS MENTIONED EARLIER IS THAT IF A
SECONDARY LOW OCCURS WHICH WOULD REINFORCE THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS OF NOW WE ARE NOT GOING WITH A
SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. NEVERTHELESS, THE FLOW BASED ON THE
HPC FORECAST SURFACE MAPS INDICATE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXED
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT /SEABREEZES PERHAPS/ WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE CARRIED COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTAL LOCALES.

FOR SUNDAY...SOME ENERGY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SEND A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A RETURN FLOW TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF THIS TO ALLOW
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ON BY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A RESULT ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST ZONES, HOWEVER THE MAIN FORCING
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
THEN ARRIVE LATE AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY HPC GUIDANCE,
WHICH FEATURES A WARMING TREND FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A TRICKY FORECAST AS THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT FLOW REGIME TO A LARGE TROUGH IN THE WEST.
THIS TENDS TO BRING A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER, MUCH
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA THAT ENDS UP SENDING A COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THIS IS TIED TO
THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SUNDAY SECTION. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT THIS BOUNDARY STALLS IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS
OUR AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THIS SETUP TYPICALLY RESULTS IN AN INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND OUR PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE
OUR SENSITIVE WEATHER. AS OF NOW, WE GENERALLY HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHC
POPS IN THE DATABASE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY. ANY
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REAL STRONG THIS FAR
OUT, HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE. AS A RESULT, WE LEANED CLOSER TO HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS 60S FOR DAYTIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE DID
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE COASTAL LOCALES COOLER GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER
OCEAN WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH
THE GUSTS DIMINISHING BETWEEN THE 0Z TO 2Z TIME FRAME FOR OUR
SITES. IN ADDITION, THE SCATTERED LATE-DAY CUMULUS WILL ALSO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LEAVING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AVERAGE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE 14Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME, WITH GUST
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR LATE WITH
SOME RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...SUB-VFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS REACHING SCA CRITERIA HAVE BEEN MEASURED TODAY AT BUOY
44065, AND GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, AND IN ADDITION, THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT SCA FOR OUR TWO
NORTHERN MARINE ZONES AND EXTEND IT UNTIL 4Z THURSDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BETTER MIXING FOR WEDNESDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
OUR MARINE ZONES AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, AND WE THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED
A SCA FOR THESE ZONES STARTING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR ENDS, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, WE CARRIED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH 04Z THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OR
NORTH FOR A TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY. BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL WIND FIELD FORECASTS AT
925 MB, A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN TAKES OVER ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER ATTM
IT APPEARS TO BE UNDER 25 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER MUCH COLLABORATION WITH OUR STATE FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND
SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FROM 12Z TO 23Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY'S SYNOPTIC SETUP AND FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE EXPERIENCED ON TUESDAY. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE BEING WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY TO DRY OUT OUR FINE FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THAT DAY BEING TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUSTAINED
20 MPH WINDS ACROSS A BETTER PORTION OF OUR REGION. COLD AIR
FUNNELING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW US TO MIX UPWARDS OF
1500 FT AND BRING THAT DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE AND ALLOW
STRONGER WIND GUSTS YET AGAIN. THIS WILL KEEP RH VALUES BELOW 30
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE
MARINE...GORSE/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...HEAVENER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-032000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
356 PM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS, GUSTY WINDS AND DRYING FINE FUELS
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-032000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
356 PM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-030000-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1000 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

...ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS, GUSTY WINDS AND DRYING FINE FUELS
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER IN THE VALLEYS
THAN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WILDFIRE DANGER, BURN RESTRICTIONS
AND WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND EDUCATION, PLEASE VISIT YOUR STATE
FORESTRY OR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WEBSITE.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-
070-071-101>106-030000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...
OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
1000 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2013

...ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS, GUSTY WINDS AND DRYING FINE FUELS
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WILDFIRE DANGER, BURN RESTRICTIONS AND
WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND EDUCATION, PLEASE VISIT YOUR STATE FORESTRY
OR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WEBSITE.

IOVINO/GORSE