Alert archive / New Jersey / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

July 7, 2013Morris County, New Jersey

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 7, 2013, 8:05 PM EDT for Morris County, New Jersey. It was in force for 40 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 7, 2013, 8:05 PM EDT (00:05 UTC)
Expired
Jul 7, 2013, 8:45 PM EDT
In force
40 min
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area
Storm-based polygon

County Morris County, NJ

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 7, 8:08 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGRoxbury Twp, NJROOF BLOWN OFF A STRUCTURE. POWER KNOCKED OUT FOR HALF OF ROXBURY.
Jul 7, 8:10 PM EDTHAIL 0.88Ledgewood, NJNICKEL SIZE HAIL.
Jul 7, 8:15 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGWharton, NJTREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES IN MORRIS COUNTY CONCENTRATED IN DOVER AND MINE HILL TOWNSHIPS
Jul 7, 8:20 PM EDTHAIL 0.38Roxbury Twp, NJ
Jul 7, 8:20 PM EDTHAIL 0.5Roxbury Twp, NJHAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER REPORTED.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 3 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 7, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2013-07-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1758 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2013-07-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 127 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1758 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-81 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1168 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

355 
WUUS51 KPHI 080005
SVRPHI
NJC027-080045-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0066.130708T0005Z-130708T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 802 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
  NETCONG TO SUCCASUNNA TO CHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE
  STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DOVER AND WHARTON AROUND 815 PM EDT...
  ROCKAWAY AROUND 820 PM EDT...
  MORRIS PLAINS AND MORRISTOWN AROUND 825 PM EDT...
  MOUNTAIN LAKES AND BOONTON AROUND 830 PM EDT...
  EAST HANOVER AND FLORHAM PARK AROUND 835 PM EDT...
  LINCOLN PARK AROUND 840 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER
ROADS WITH WATER. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7433 4084 7432 4079 7436 4077 7436
      4081 7475 4086 7473 4091 7474 4090 7470
      4091 7468 4094 7428 4093 7429 4091 7427
      4089 7427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 271DEG 27KT 4088 7468 4086 7466
          4082 7468

$$

FORECASTER:  DRAG
2 follow-up statements
879 
WWUS51 KPHI 080020
SVSPHI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

NJC027-080045-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-130708T0045Z/
MORRIS NJ-
820 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY...

AT 816 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS NEAR 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM WHARTON TO DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THERE WAS A REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT LEDGEWOOD AT ABOUT 810 PM. 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PARSIPPANY AND MOUNTAIN LAKES AROUND 825 PM EDT...
BOONTON AROUND 830 PM EDT...
LINCOLN PARK AROUND 840 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU'RE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE FOR A STRONG AND 
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST. 

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7433 4086 7433 4085 7435 4085 7446
      4086 7455 4088 7462 4091 7464 4092 7462
      4094 7429 4089 7427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 257DEG 32KT 4091 7452 4089 7451
          4087 7452

$$

FORECASTER:  DRAG
287 
WWUS51 KPHI 080034
SVSPHI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
834 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

NJC027-080044-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-130708T0045Z/
MORRIS NJ-
834 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4090 7433 4086 7433 4085 7435 4085 7446
      4086 7455 4088 7462 4091 7464 4092 7462
      4094 7429 4089 7427
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 257DEG 32KT 4094 7435 4092 7434
          4090 7435

$$

FORECASTER:  DRAG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 7:05 PM EDT, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 7:05 PM EDT, 1 hour before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
705 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE, THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
WILL WEAKEN SOME AND GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR
AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ARRIVE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN IT SHOULD STALL NEAR OUR REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT MAY THEN DISSIPATE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS SOME TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO EXPAND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
INTO ALL OF NEW JERSEY EXCEPT CUMBERLAND AND CAPE MAY. CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

KIND OF AMAZING THAT DEWPOINTS WERE ACTUALLY RISING DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY ATTRIBUTABLE
FACTOR WOULD BE AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN CLOSED LOW IN THE UPPER MID-WEST AND WEAK SURFACE
TOUGH ACTING TO SQUEEZE MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE ADDED MOISTURE, NOT LIKE WE
NEEDED MORE, AS ALLOWING NUMEROUS TOWERS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
AND NORTH. A WEAK BAY BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS HARFORD AND CECIL
COUNTIES MARYLAND TO HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP...THOUGH THIS
SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL BE PULLING THROUGH BY
21-22Z ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
SOUTHWESTERLY SO IT WILL BE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION BUT LOOKS TO
REACH THE METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THE ENTIRE LINE IS MOVING
QUITE FAST WITHIN 40-50 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
DOWNED TREES AND SOME FLOODING TAKING PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO OUR
REGION. GIVEN THAT OUR AIRMASS IS PRETTY UNSTABLE, THOUGH WE DO HAVE
WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ANY OUTFLOW THAT KICKS OFF THIS SYSTEM
COULD EASILY REFORM IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WE
SHOULD START TO SEE A WANING TREND AFTER 2-3Z TONIGHT.

OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THIS MORNING'S LOW OR SLIGHTLY
COOLER. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE TONIGHT BY A DEGREE IN
MOST SPOTS GIVEN THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AROUND PLUS THE VERY WARM EVENING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT HAVE BEEN DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TOMORROW BUT BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE WHILE THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST
CARVES INTO THE TOP OF RIDGING. AS THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST IT STARTS TO OPEN UP A BIT AND BECOMES LESS COMPACT BUT WE
SHOULD MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERY ACTIVITY FROM THE MORNING ONWARD.

THERE IS A NOTED COLD POOL IN THE MID-LEVELS, ACCOMPANYING THE
OPENING WAVE, THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
WAS HESITANT TO ADD THIS ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST GIVEN
OUR LIMITING FACTOR TOMORROW WOULD BE THE IMMENSE CLOUD COVER
AROUND. THAT BEING SAID, THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT FORMED THIS
AFTERNOON OCCURRED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COLD POOL AND WERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. SO WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ENHANCEMENT OF UPDRAFTS JUST BASED ON CLOUD COVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WOULD YIELD GREATER
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES COMBINED WITH -5 TO -6C LIFTED INDICES SO
THE VARIABLES ARE THERE.

THE ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND THE INCREASED
CHANCES IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS THAT IT WILL EAT UP A MAJORITY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE STAT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID-60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BE
CAUSED BY THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT OR OF THE ADDED
CONVECTION. EITHER WAY WE WILL FEEL A LOT BETTER TOMORROW DURING THE
PEAK HEATING WITH HIGHS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE METRO AREA AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER ELSEWHERE.

THE HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE TOMORROW AS ANOTHER DAY OF
HEAT INDICES PUSHING 100F IS EXPECTED ACROSS A BETTER PORTION OF THE
REGION. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE HIGHER-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING A
BETTER DEFINED THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO OUR
WEST AND PUSHING INTO THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE OR
BREAK THE BETTER MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COULD
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER DURING
THE PEAK HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE IS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN STATES WITH ANOTHER ONE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THESE FEATURES WILL GENERALLY MOVE A LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK,
HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST
STARTING THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY TEND TO CLOSE OFF AND MEANDER
FOR AWHILE DUE TO RIDGING ON BOTH SIDES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
EVENTUALLY THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD SOME
OVER THE WEEKEND TO PUSH THE TROUGH WESTWARD AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY, THEN THIS
SHOULD STALL IN OUR VICINITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MEANDERS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY THEN GET SHOVED WESTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND OR DISSIPATE DUE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
WESTWARD SOME. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THEN GENERALLY 12Z WPC GUIDANCE /ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/ THEREAFTER.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING.
THEREAFTER, THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THE WANE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THERE AS SOME INCREASING WAA OCCURS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA IS WESTERLY, AND
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH BEING
PRESENT. THIS MAY BE THE MAIN TRIGGER TO FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THEREFORE, WE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS /CHC/ ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. THE AIRMASS SHOULD WARM SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN THE
URBAN AREAS OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THE AIRMASS MAY BE A BIT
DRIER THOUGH FOLLOWING THE MONDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE TROUGH, THEREFORE
AS OF NOW NO HEAT RELATED HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME AS
THIS OCCURS, HOWEVER ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT WEDNESDAY
MAY RESULT IN A LEE SIDE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED
SOME BY A BIT MORE WARMTH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS FEATURE MAY BE
THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS /HIGH CHC/ ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO TURN THE FLOW MORE CYCLONIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT LINGER LONGER. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR
WEST, HOWEVER IF HIGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH ENOUGH OF A
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS, THEN SOME STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY COULD BECOME
LOCALLY STRONG. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO SOME WARMING OF THE AIRMASS, AND DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER SOME FROM TUESDAY. THEREFORE, HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH
100 DEGREES FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE HIGHLY
URBANIZED CENTERS. THIS COULD BE TEMPERED SOME THOUGH FROM
CONVECTION OR MORE CLOUD COVER.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES MORE DURING THURSDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING OUR AREA. SOME OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE TRIGGER MAY BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT TEAMS UP
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MORE NOTED HEIGHT FALLS. GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LOW
ATTM HOWEVER SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IF ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR NEAR OR ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. THE POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WITH THEM
TOPPING OUT AT LOW LIKELY, THEN TAPERING DOWN AT NIGHT. WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUALLY SOME
CONVECTION, THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE COOLER THEREFORE NO HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST
SOUTH OR ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON TIMING. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A MECHANISM FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PW VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES
SO ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN. WENT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS AND LIMITED ADVECTION FROM A COOLER AIRMASS MAY
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE DAY.

THIS FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND PUMPED NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A RETROGRADING BERMUDA HIGH. THIS AIRMASS MAY STILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR
CONCERNS REGARDING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER EXTEND INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL AND THAT HAS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES WITH WARMER LOWS
AND COOLER HIGHS.

THE 12Z GFS IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO THE
RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN BY SUNDAY.THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND EC DO
AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION. HIGHER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL STORMS ARE
REFLECTED ON SATURDAY WHEN COMPARED TO SUNDAY TO REFLECT THIS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ATTM LOOK A TOUCH WARMER WITH LESS CHANCE FOR PRECIP
AND LOWER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VFR WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF
OUR TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE CHANGED THE PROB30 TO A
TEMPO BUT MOVED THE TIMING UP BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND AND PENNSYLVANIA, IF IT WERE TO
HOLD TOGETHER, WOULD BE NEAR RDG AND ABE BY 22-23Z AND THEN AN
HOUR OR SO LATER ACROSS THE PHL METRO TERMINALS. NOT CONFIDENT ON
THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO MIV/ACY SINCE THE SURFACE
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW IS STILL MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TERMINAL IMPACTS LATE TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS.

MONDAY...MUCH IN THE SAME AS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THERE SHOULD BE MORE ALTOCUMULUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS A
MID-LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER DUE TO CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STILL IN PLACE. THERE COULD BE THE OCCASIONAL
GUST UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE MASSIVE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL NEARBY THOUGH IT IS SLIDING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH. WE INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT THE CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY INCREASE
SOME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH MAY ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH GIVEN THAT THE
WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER 25 KNOTS BECAUSE OF THE WARMTH OF THE
AIR MASS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY LOOKING LIKE THE GREATER CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY AND WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060>062-101-
     103-105.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-020-027.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES/GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 7, 7:29 PM EDT, 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ054-055-082330-
CARBON-MONROE-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-082330-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ012-013-020-027-082330-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ001-082330-
NEW CASTLE-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-082330-
MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ021-023-082330-
CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ016-022-082330-
SALEM-ATLANTIC-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ002-003-MDZ012-015-019-020-082330-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 INTO THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ008-082330-
CECIL-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ014-025-026-082330-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-NJZ024-082330-
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING AND STALLING FRONT COULD POSE THE THREAT OF
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME FLOODING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-450>455-082330-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
729 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD TRIGGER GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 7, 6:51 PM EDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ060-061-103-105-072330-
BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-UPPER BUCKS PA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
651 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN BERKS...SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH AND WEST
CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTIES...

AT 647 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM AMITY
GARDENS TO BIRDSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR STOWE AROUND 700 PM...BECHTELSVILLE AROUND
705 PM...BALLY AROUND 710 PM...EAST GREENVILLE AROUND 720
PM...ZIONSVILLE AROUND 725 PM AND TRUMBAUERSVILLE AROUND 730 PM.

LAT...LON 4033 7582 4053 7541 4032 7533 4024 7569
      4024 7570 4023 7573 4020 7584

FORECASTER:  DRAG
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 7:08 PM EDT, 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
708 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

PAZ101>104-072345-
EASTERN CHESTER PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-WESTERN CHESTER PA-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
708 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY
AND NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 704 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM CEDARVILLE TO PUGHTOWN TO GLENMOORE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN
CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SANATOGA AROUND 720 PM...SPRING
CITY AROUND 725 PM...PHOENIXVILLE AROUND 730 PM...SCHWENKSVILLE
AROUND 735 PM...SKIPPACK AROUND 740 PM AND KING OF PRUSSIA AROUND 745
PM.

LAT...LON 4016 7580 4019 7579 4023 7573 4032 7533
      4015 7517 4006 7531 4006 7592

FORECASTER:  DRAG
Local storm report, Jul 7, 7:22 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
722 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SADSBURY TWP            39.98N  75.90W
07/07/2013                   CHESTER            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0700 PM     LIGHTNING        VALLEY TWP              39.98N  75.85W
07/07/2013                   CHESTER            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A HOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300253 PHI1300254

GAINES
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 7:22 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
722 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016-PAZ070-102-080000-
CECIL MD-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN CHESTER PA-NEW CASTLE DE-SALEM NJ-
722 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CECIL...
NORTHERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN SALEM...SOUTH CENTRAL CHESTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES...

AT 718 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
TOUGHKENAMON TO GLEN WESTOVER TO CHERRY HILL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR NEWARK...PIKE CREEK...PIKE CREEK...AND
HOCKESSIN AROUND 730 PM...BROOKSIDE...ASHLAND...AND ASHLAND AROUND
735 PM...STANTON AROUND 740 PM...NEWPORT AND ELSMERE AROUND 745 PM.

LAT...LON 3973 7580 3989 7575 3992 7539 3971 7544
      3959 7550 3960 7557 3962 7558 3967 7552
      3969 7552 3964 7558 3960 7561 3962 7588

FORECASTER:  DRAG
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 7:34 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
734 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

NJZ007>010-PAZ105-106-080015-
HUNTERDON NJ-LOWER BUCKS PA-MORRIS NJ-SOMERSET NJ-UPPER BUCKS PA-
WARREN NJ-
734 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
HUNTERDON...NORTHERN BUCKS...NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET...SOUTHERN WARREN
AND WEST CENTRAL MORRIS COUNTIES...

AT 732 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTON TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF EASTON TO 20
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALLENTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH A COUPLE OF
THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES
WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

BRIEF BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN
CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR DUBLIN...PIPERSVILLE...PIPERSVILLE...AND
HAMPTON AROUND 740 PM...ERWINNA...ERWINNA...GLEN GARDNER...AND GLEN
GARDNER AROUND 745 PM...BEATTYESTOWN AND HACKETTSTOWN AROUND 750 PM.

LAT...LON 4056 7471 4038 7484 4037 7487 4034 7487
      4032 7532 4033 7534 4050 7528 4060 7522
      4062 7519 4064 7519 4087 7505 4085 7453

FORECASTER:  DRAG
Special weather statement, Jul 7, 7:53 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
753 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

NJZ015-018-019-PAZ070-071-103-104-106-080045-
CAMDEN NJ-DELAWARE PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-LOWER BUCKS PA-MERCER NJ-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
753 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A LINE OF SCATTERED BRIEF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
EASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...PHILADELPHIA...SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS
AND WESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 751 PM EDT...A LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED
FROM CHALFONT TO CHESTNUT HILL TO PENN WYNNE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN CAN CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR DOYLESTOWN...WYNDMOOR...WYNCOTE...AND
ORELAND AROUND 800 PM...KENSINGTON...KENSINGTON...WILLOW GROVE...AND
WYNCOTE AROUND 805 PM...WARMINSTER HEIGHTS AND ROCKLEDGE AROUND 810
PM.

LAT...LON 3996 7483 3988 7544 4006 7537 4007 7536
      4008 7537 4031 7533 4031 7530 4026 7521
      4028 7519 4030 7520 4032 7517 4035 7472

FORECASTER:  DRAG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 7, 8:27 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHISomerset48 min
Jul 7, 8:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMorris52 min
Jul 8, 3:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIBurlington57 min
Jul 8, 5:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIAtlantic55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New Jersey, 2013Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.