Gale Warning 16, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

196 
WHUS71 KPHI 112000
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

ANZ450-451-121100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130413T1000Z/
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0016.130412T0600Z-130412T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
400 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WINDS...EAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 35
  KNOTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BECOMING
  NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY
  NIGHT.

* SEAS...4 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-121100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130413T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
400 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS...EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
  TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
  25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS...4 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-120600-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-130412T0600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
400 PM EDT THU APR 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
  TONIGHT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD SOME AS A
WARM FRONT INTO FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN LATER
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY, THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO OUR
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COMPLEX DAY DAY AHEAD:  PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH 8
AM AS SKIES TEND TO CLEAR AT HIGH LEVELS.  OTRW A FEW SCT SHOWERS NE
PA AND NNJ EARLY THIS MORNING.

THEN THE ELONGATED LOW PRES SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL PA TO THE
S OF LI SHOULD SLIDE EAST AND PERMIT HIGH PRES WITH DENSE COLD AIR
FROM NYS TO NEW ENGLAND TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD WITH A BURST OF NNE WIND
MIDDAY TURNING MORE ELY LATE THIS AFTN AS THE GRADIENT FLOW ASSTD
WITH OHIO VALLEY LOW PRES BECOMES DOMINANT.

ANY MORNING SUNSHINE IS SHORT LIVED AS A DECK OF ST OR SC MOVES SSW
THROUGH NJ AND PA MIDDAY AND COVERS ALL OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTN.

THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR S DE AND A PTN OF E MD SHORE TO
REACH 80F IN THE LEFTOVER WARM SECTOR FROM YDYS RECORD HEAT.  TODAYS
RECORD AT KGED NEEDS TO BE EQUALED BY 17Z OR IT WONT OCCUR AS OCEAN
STRATUS AND CHILLED AIR OVER ATLC SSTS IN THE 40S PUSHES WESTWARD.
COULD BE A VERY DIFF IN TEMPS...20F OR SO AT NOON TODAY BETWEEN KGED
AND THE ATLC DELAWARE COAST.

I HAD A HARD TIME TRYING TO GENERATE THUNDER ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA
TODAY BUT I SUPPOSE THERE IS SMALL CHC OF THUNDER OVER MD E SHORE
AND S DE BUT ATTM ITS NOT GRIDDED.

AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SUBTLE LOW
LVL OVERRUNNING PATTERN LATE THIS AFTN...AT LEAST FOR NJ AND PTNS OF
E PA.

WINDS AND TEMPS WERE EQUALLY BLENDED 00Z/11 NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE 2M TEMPS/WINDS OF THE RGEM/NAM.

POPS WERE APPROXIMATELY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
STILL DRY AT MID LVLS SO A WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND
POTENTIALLY AREAS OF DENSE FOG SITUATION SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING
FOR OUR AREA AS SLY OVERRUN THE BL ENE FLOW.

HPC QPF IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME GUIDED THE WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN PA.

ITS AFTER 06Z WHEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING WARM FRONT DEEPEN
THE MOISTURE AND A STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS LATE AT NIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT HIGH POINT NJ AND MOUNT
POCONO TONIGHT SO NO ICE THERE...BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.

WINDS AND TEMPS WERE EQUALLY BLENDED 00Z/11 NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WITH THE 2M TEMPS/WINDS OF THE RGEM/NAM.

POPS WERE APPROXIMATELY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/11 NAM/GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL SWEEP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE GO
THROUGH LATER FRIDAY. A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS TO BE REPLACED BY SOME RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DEPENDING
ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM SECTOR. WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF
MODEL GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
SOME OF THE NEW WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...A SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
THEN AN OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES INTO OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AT THE TRIPLE POINT AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR
FROM THE WEST, AND THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS
DRAPED THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD SOME. IT APPEARS AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA REMAINS UNDER AN EAST OR NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WITH THE WARM SECTOR PROBABLY REMAINING ACROSS THE
DELMARVA TO PERHAPS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, WITH WARM CONDITIONS FOUND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. NORTH OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS KEEPING MOISTURE LOCKED IN, THEREFORE IF WE
CAN VEER THE WINDS TO MORE SOUTHERLY FAST ENOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL
WARMING PERHAPS OCCURS. FOR HIGHS, WE GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO CONTINUITY. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST
ZONES MAY ACTUALLY START THE DAY CLOSE TO FREEZING, AS THE NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS DOWN COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIR. WE HOWEVER DID NOT CARRY ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION ATTM AS IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE A COLD
RAIN THERE.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING FLOW BELOW
10,000 FEET FOR A TIME FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ASSUMING MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW, THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE STABLE BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS HINTED AT
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY VIA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE DELMARVA
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHC OF SEEING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS
IN COMBINATION WITH THE LINEAR FORCING WITH THE FRONT COULD RESULT
IN SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF NARROW
LINE SEGMENTS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING IN
ALONG WITH HIGHER SHEAR, THEREFORE SOME STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY SOUTH ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN ERODE ANY
STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE BEST CHC OF THIS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE DELMARVA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH 925/850
MB FLOW OF 40-50 KNOTS. IF ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN BE
SUSTAINED FARTHER SOUTH, MAY HAVE TO WATCH NEAR THE WARM
FRONT/TRIPLE POINT FOR PERHAPS SOME ROTATION AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS TIED TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
AND THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE, PLUS THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. THEREFORE, WE HELD OFF ON ANY
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST ATTM. THE SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT
RISK TO OUR SOUTH ATTM. WE DID REMOVE THE THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS AS IT LOOKS STABLE ENOUGH. THE PW VALUES HOWEVER ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. A MENTION CONTINUES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY COOL FRONT OR SURFACE
TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY, HOWEVER
MOISTURE AND FORCING LOOKS WEAK. OTHERWISE, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS CAA OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
AREA, THEREFORE A WESTERLY BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. SOME STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE MAY PRODUCE A
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY. A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE MAY THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A
SHOWER AROUND, ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY BE TO DRY. JUST SOME SLIGHT
CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY,
THEN DRY AT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BE TRANSITIONING TO OUR EAST DURING
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS WIND WITH TIME AND ALSO HELP WITH
THE WAA DEVELOPING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE A
WARM FRONT THAT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER
WAA AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REMAINS TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE WE OPTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY THE INTO CANADA TUESDAY.
THIS PLACES A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY ARRIVES AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AS SOME GUIDANCE IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. WE THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT, AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST INTO WEDNESDAY. NO MAJOR
CHANGED WERE MADE TO THE POPS, WHICH FEATURES SLIGHT CHC OR LOW CHC
POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY IFR CONDS POSSIBLE BEFORE 13Z IN ST/FOG WITH LIGHT
WIND.  THEN A WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG SPREADS SWWD ACROSS NE PA...MUCH
OF NJ AND DE MIDDAY COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA BY 22Z.  THE CIGS LOWER
TO IFR LATE THIS AFTN AS ENE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT AND DRIZZLE
DEVELOPS LOWERING VSBY TO NEAR 3SM.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG/DRIZZLE WITH STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ENE WIND G15 TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. THE SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS MAY TURN SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME, MAINLY
TOWARD KMIV AND KACY, THEN BECOME WESTERLY LATE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
10-20 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SCA ENE FLOW CONDITION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MIDDAY OR AFTN AS
A COOL FRONT SAGS SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SCA WIDESPREAD WITH A PERIOD GALE FORCE ENE GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE NNJ WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. PRIOR TO THIS THOUGH, A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF IT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLY AN INCOMING TRIPLE POINT. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO A COOLER
AIRMASS AND EAST WIND. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY FRIDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH, ASSUMING THE AIRMASS IS WARMER THERE WOULD BE LESS MIXING.
GIVEN THE GRADIENT THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, WE WILL GO WITH
A GALE WARNING THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY FOR THE TWO NORTHERN ZONES AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. THE ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 22Z FRIDAY
FOR NOW. WE DID NOT KEEP THE ADVISORY FOR THE BAY BEYOND 10Z FRIDAY
AS THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE WINDS THERE.

AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY, HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. THE BEST CHC OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FROM ABOUT CAPE MAY ON SOUTHWARD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH SHOULD STAY UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO
DROP BELOW 5 FEET. A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEN OCCURS MONDAY ON
THE WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-120430-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
1228 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, AND ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-120430-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1228 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
958 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CANADENSIS              41.19N  75.25W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             PA   NWS OFFICE

0600 PM     HAIL             EAST STROUDSBURG        41.00N  75.18W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             PA   PUBLIC

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTAGUE                41.30N  74.78W
04/10/2013                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0600 PM     HAIL             MONTAGUE                41.30N  74.78W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASHINGTON TWP          40.73N  75.64W
04/10/2013                   LEHIGH             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0647 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  M0.50 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH HAIL COVERED HALF OF THE GROUND.

0650 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW HANOVER TWP        40.64N  75.44W
04/10/2013                   LEHIGH             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0700 PM     HAIL             BETHLEHEM               40.63N  75.37W
04/10/2013  E0.88 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   PUBLIC

0705 PM     HAIL             RIEGELSVILLE            40.59N  75.19W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             NJ   PUBLIC

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE POTTSGROVE         40.30N  75.57W
04/10/2013                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY GREEN            40.11N  75.22W
04/10/2013                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300044 PHI1300033 PHI1300034 PHI1300035 PHI1300039
PHI1300045 PHI1300036 PHI1300037 PHI1300040 PHI1300038 PHI1300041
PHI1300042 PHI1300043

MPD/GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1010 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-
110415-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
CECIL MD-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
DELAWARE PA-EASTERN CHESTER PA-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-KENT DE-KENT MD-
LOWER BUCKS PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-UPPER BUCKS PA-
WESTERN CHESTER PA-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
1010 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BUCKS...BURLINGTON...
CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...CECIL...CHESTER...CUMBERLAND...DELAWARE...
GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...KENT...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...
MONTGOMERY...MORRIS...NEW CASTLE...OCEAN...PHILADELPHIA...QUEEN
ANNE'S...SALEM AND SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 1000 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS LINE WAS MOVING AT
45 MPH AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS LINE...IT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

LAT...LON 3977 7408 3943 7432 3892 7494 3917 7490
      3918 7515 3959 7555 3897 7530 3884 7573
      3914 7576 3892 7595 3890 7625 3918 7628
      3952 7599 3971 7622 4082 7441 4060 7444
      4061 7421 4047 7425 4045 7396

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1051 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CANADENSIS              41.19N  75.25W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             PA   NWS OFFICE

0600 PM     HAIL             EAST STROUDSBURG        41.00N  75.18W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             PA   PUBLIC

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTAGUE                41.30N  74.78W
04/10/2013                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0600 PM     HAIL             MONTAGUE                41.30N  74.78W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASHINGTON TWP          40.73N  75.64W
04/10/2013                   LEHIGH             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0647 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  M0.50 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH HAIL COVERED HALF OF THE GROUND.

0650 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW HANOVER TWP        40.64N  75.44W
04/10/2013                   LEHIGH             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0700 PM     HAIL             BETHLEHEM               40.63N  75.37W
04/10/2013  E0.88 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   PUBLIC

0705 PM     HAIL             RIEGELSVILLE            40.59N  75.19W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             NJ   PUBLIC

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE POTTSGROVE         40.30N  75.57W
04/10/2013                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY GREEN            40.11N  75.22W
04/10/2013                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

1021 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA  40.09N  75.02W
04/10/2013  M51 MPH          PHILADELPHIA       PA   ASOS

1035 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SANDY HOOK              40.44N  73.99W
04/10/2013  M45 MPH          MONMOUTH           NJ   WEATHER FLOW

            39 KNOT GUST WITH A LINE OF STORMS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300044 PHI1300033 PHI1300034 PHI1300035 PHI1300039
PHI1300045 PHI1300036 PHI1300037 PHI1300040 PHI1300038 PHI1300041
PHI1300042 PHI1300043 PHI1300046 PHI1300047

MPD/GORSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1133 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             CANADENSIS              41.19N  75.25W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             PA   NWS OFFICE

0600 PM     HAIL             EAST STROUDSBURG        41.00N  75.18W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             PA   PUBLIC

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTAGUE                41.30N  74.78W
04/10/2013                   SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0600 PM     HAIL             MONTAGUE                41.30N  74.78W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   911 CALL CENTER

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WASHINGTON TWP          40.73N  75.64W
04/10/2013                   LEHIGH             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0647 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  M0.50 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH HAIL COVERED HALF OF THE GROUND.

0650 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     HAIL             ALLENTOWN               40.59N  75.48W
04/10/2013  E0.75 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW HANOVER TWP        40.64N  75.44W
04/10/2013                   LEHIGH             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

0700 PM     HAIL             BETHLEHEM               40.63N  75.37W
04/10/2013  E0.88 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   PUBLIC

0700 PM     HAIL             FREEMANSBURG            40.63N  75.34W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       NORTHAMPTON        PA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0705 PM     HAIL             RIEGELSVILLE            40.59N  75.19W
04/10/2013  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             NJ   PUBLIC

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE POTTSGROVE         40.30N  75.57W
04/10/2013                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY GREEN            40.11N  75.22W
04/10/2013                   MONTGOMERY         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

1021 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA  40.09N  75.02W
04/10/2013  M51 MPH          PHILADELPHIA       PA   ASOS

1035 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SANDY HOOK              40.44N  73.99W
04/10/2013  M45 MPH          MONMOUTH           NJ   WEATHER FLOW

            39 KNOT GUST WITH A LINE OF STORMS.

1035 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND MONMOUTH BEACH          40.34N  73.99W
04/10/2013  M45 MPH          MONMOUTH           NJ   WEATHER FLOW

            39 KNOT GUST WITH A LINE OF STORMS.

1050 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND SEASIDE HEIGHTS         39.94N  74.08W
04/10/2013  M49 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   WEATHER FLOW

            43 KNOT GUST WITH A LINE OF STORMS.

1050 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND BRICK TWP               40.07N  74.12W
04/10/2013  M49 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   WEATHER FLOW

            43 KNOT GUST WITH A LINE OF STORMS.

1055 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND TRIXIES-BAYVILLE        39.87N  74.13W
04/10/2013  M56 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   WEATHER FLOW

            49 KNOT GUST WITH A LINE OF STORMS.

1110 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND TUCKERTON               39.60N  74.33W
04/10/2013  M44 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   WEATHER FLOW

            38 KNOT GUST WITH A LINE OF STORMS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1300044 PHI1300033 PHI1300034 PHI1300035 PHI1300039
PHI1300045 PHI1300036 PHI1300037 PHI1300040 PHI1300038 PHI1300048
PHI1300041 PHI1300042 PHI1300043 PHI1300046 PHI1300047 PHI1300049
PHI1300051 PHI1300052 PHI1300050 PHI1300053

MPD/GORSE