Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
501 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE TN/MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO THE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER BY 12Z FRI AS MAIN UPPER
TROF AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
NEARING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z FRI. THIS PATTERN GIVES WAY TO
ANOTHER CHILLY START FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WHICH HELPED MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE
COOL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S FURTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NEAR THE COAST. 32/EE

A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS PATTERN. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
AID IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER
ACROSS THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS DEEP LAYER RH
REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE CWFA UNDERNEATH THIS REGIME. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF WEST TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...EXCEPT TEMPERATURES
MAY BE EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER...PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST
INLAND AREAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY MONDAY AS
MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS STATES SUNDAY...TO THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWESTERN STATES EARLY
MONDAY...TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE REGION. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN PLACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRI. VERY
FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN 1 TO 2 FEET FRI THROUGH SUN. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH EARLY TODAY BECOMING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
CHOP IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN A LIGHT CHOP TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF
WATERS OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY AND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND DUE TO GOOD COLD AIR DRAINAGE THIS
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE GULF COAST.
ANOTHER LONG DURATION PERIOD OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20-24
PERCENT RANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 6
PM CDT. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO IMPACT SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT OTHER CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE MET FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDING UPWARD ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  42  73  51  75 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   61  43  71  53  73 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  47  68  54  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   61  37  74  46  74 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  64  40  76  45  76 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      61  37  76  46  74 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   63  33  74  45  75 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

32/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
506 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-151200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
506 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.