Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A STRONG SFC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SAT. ANOTHER SFC COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTH
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
TODAY FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPS OVERNIGHT SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON. WITH SFC DEWPTS RUNNING IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT COMBINED
WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S SOME PATCHY FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWFA. AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO
20 MPH EARLY TODAY OCCURRING MOSTLY AFTER SUNRISE WILL ALSO MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT
WINDS DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER MOST INLAND
AREAS RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM LEAKESVILLE MS TO
CRESTVIEW FL. FOR HIGHS TODAY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV
AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS COLD ADVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  A DOME OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGH
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER THIRTIES TO
AROUND FORTY INLAND AND RANGING TO MID FORTIES CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
WESTERN PLAINS WHILE AN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE LONGWAVE
TROF WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF AN EXPECTED TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS AT THE
MOMENT.  A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS BY THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SAT.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY
TODAY DIMINISHING TO AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE NEAR THE SFC OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG OFFSHORE
MOSTLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY THEN SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH SAT
MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MIDDAY SUN SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS LATE WED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE INLAND WATERS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR A LONG DURATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND KBDI VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND AROUND
550.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT 20 FT WINDS WILL BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN 10 MPH OR BETTER FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS CONCURRENT WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30 PERCENT OR LESS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT HAVE OPTED TO BE CAUTIOUS AND ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THIS PORTION.  FOR THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR A LONG DURATION AND ERC VALUES WILL BE 28-31.  HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR 15 MPH 20 FT WINDS IS TOO LOW FOR A RED FLAG WARNING
IN THIS PORTION.  WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
ON SATURDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON SUNDAY AND SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  40  71  46  77 /  00  00  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   70  44  71  48  76 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      69  48  70  51  75 /  00  00  00  05  05
EVERGREEN   64  34  68  37  77 /  00  00  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  63  34  70  40  77 /  00  00  00  05  10
CAMDEN      63  34  67  39  76 /  00  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   68  34  71  36  77 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-261200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
415 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-261200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
415 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.