Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND WARM WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE ERN FL
BIG BEND TOWARD THE NRN PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL REACH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SRN
SECTIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH MID LYR FLOW AT 700 MBS INCREASING TO 50-55 KNOTS.
COLD MID LVL TEMPERATURES 13C/500MBS AT KTBW THIS MORNING WILL ALSO
PORTEND AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION EXPECTED AT 45 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARD THE ENE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH BY
LATE MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS WILL BECOME SCATTERED WITH LATE MORNING LOW LVL
MIXING AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLOSER TO NAM MOS VALUES IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS SRN SECTIONS AND THE MID 80S ACROSS NRN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS BLO 030 SHOULD LIFT BTWN 14Z-16Z...WITH TEMPO TSRA
ACROSS NRN TERMINALS 18-21Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 20Z-23Z. SW WINDS
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WITH GUSTS TO
30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSRA MAINLY NORTH OF A
KISM-KTIX LINE 18Z-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...STRENGTHENING SW FLOW TO 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING WITH SCA IN EFFECT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE QUICK MOVING
STORMS THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE MAINLAND TOWARD THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. MARINERS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS...STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS
AND HIGH DISPERSION WILL MAKE FIRE SPREAD AN ISSUE FOR ANY NEW OF
EXISTING FIRES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

VOLKMER/SPRATT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
558 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-242300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
558 AM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
AND HAIL QUARTER SIZED OR GREATER AS IT INITIALLY MOVES INTO AREAS
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 4. STORM MOTION WILL BE QUICKLY TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 50 MPH.

AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO AREA IT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER STRONG STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY UP TO 20 TO
25 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW LOOSE OBJECTS AROUND AND CAN MAKE
HIGH SPEED TRAVEL ON HIGHWAYS DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO MAKE BOATING ON INLAND LAKES AND
WATERWAYS VERY DANGEROUS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE ROUGHER SURF ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY. ALSO A SMALL SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER
SWIM ALONE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. STORMS ALONG THIS LINE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 50 KNOTS AND WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AS
THEY VEER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK AS ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE.

DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

WEITLICH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
115 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SANFORD                 28.79N 81.28W
03/24/2013  M46 MPH          SEMINOLE           FL   ASOS

            KSFB ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 40KT/46 MPH FROM 240
            DEGREES

&&

JRC