Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
916 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR OUT OF ORLANDO THIS
EVENING IS SHOWING A SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS ORANGE AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES. A WEST TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT OF WIND HAS RESULTED WEST OF
ORLANDO AND A NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT HAS RESULTED EAST OF ORLANDO.
THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH LATER ON. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN FLORIDA
COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL AID TO REINFORCE MUCH COOLER AIR WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
OVER NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. A FEW LOWER 50
DEGREE READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SAINT LUCIE
COUNTY AND MARTIN COUNTY COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER A LULL THIS EVENING WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP TOWARDS 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS RESULTED IN CHAOTIC WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT FORECAST REMAINS FOR WIND DIRECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT ON THU WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STOUT NEAR 15 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-THU...A REINFORCING BACK-DOOR COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST FLORIDA COAST OVERNIGHT INCREASING
CURRENT NW/N WINDS BACK TO 20-25 KTS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH LATE DAY THU
FALLING TO 10-15 KTS BY EARLY EVENING. THE PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
NORTHEAST SWELL AROUND 13-15 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE LEGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE SLOW TO RECOVER ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. A QUICKER RECOVERY HAS BEEN VIEWED ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS A SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS EVENING
BUT FORECAST WINDS STILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH WITH
SPEEDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH. 20 FOOT WINDS AGAIN AROUND 15
MPH ON THU WITH THESE VALUES FALLING OFF TOWARDS SUNSET. VERY LOW RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THU WITH VALUES BOTTOMING
OUT A BIT HIGHER IN THE 30S ALONG THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE IF LOWEST RH'S/HIGHEST
WINDS COINCIDE FOR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE DAY. WHETHER OR
NOT ANY OF OUR COUNTIES MAKE IT INTO A RED FLAG WARNING...IT WILL
STILL REMAIN A FAIRLY HEIGHTENED FIRE SENSITIVE DAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
436 AM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-131930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
436 AM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AND ROUGH POUNDING SURF AT THE BEACHES. THE ROUGH SURF ALONG WITH
PRESENCE OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING CURRENT IN THE SURF ZONE CAN KNOCK
YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE SEAWARD PULL OF RIP
CURRENTS.

VENTURING INTO THE CHILLY SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. EVEN
EXPERIENCED SURFERS MUST BE VERY CAUTIOUS AND NO ONE SHOULD EVER
SWIM ALONE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC
WATERS. NORTHEAST SWELLS COMBINED WITH WIND WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SEAS UP TO 9 FEET OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. NAVIGATING INLETS WILL
REMAIN PARTICULARLY TREACHEROUS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND FORECASTED WINDS. BRUSH FIRES WILL
START EASILY FROM ALL CAUSES AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAPID SPREAD.
ANY NEW FIRES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY DEPENDING ON WIND
AND DRY VEGETATION. OPEN FIRES AND WASTE BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED AND FIRE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BOATING AND SURF CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER INLAND COUNTIES AND
SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PENDERGRAST