Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR

341 
WWUS86 KMFR 180214
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
714 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY CANCELLED...

.HUMIDITY HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...AND WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH...THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. 

CAZ285-180315-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130618T0400Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
714 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE WEATHER ZONE 285 

* WIND...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

* HUMIDITY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT
  HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=MFR 

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
402 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE AROUND 44N 135W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE
EASTWARD TO AROUND 130W BY THIS EVENING AND USHER IN A PERIOD OF
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF OUR AREA HAS NOT HAD MEASUREABLE RAINFALL YET THIS MONTH.
THAT WILL CHANGE FOR PARTS OF, BUT LIKLEY NOT ALL OF THE AREA WITH
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE
PROBABILITY STILL LOOKS HIGHEST WEST AND NORTH OF THE ROGUE VALLEY.

THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE TODAY WILL RESEMBLE THAT OF SUNDAY
WITH A REGION OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOCUSED
ON NORTHEAST OREGON BUT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW MPH STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS HAS LED TO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE FIRST SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TICK
UPWARD LATE TONIGHT.

COOLING WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE ON TUESDAY AND THE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INSIDE OF 130W. THE 03Z SREF MODEL HAS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO LAKE COUNTY ON TUESDAY. BUT I
HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR A MUCH LARGER PORTION OF OUR AREA...EAST OF THE COASTAL RANGE.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS AND WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
STILL FOCUS MOST OF THE QPF ON THE COAST AND DOUGLAS COUNTY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER
POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLY SHOWERS AT THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FURTHER INLAND...CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE.

RIDGING WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
...POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. I HAVE
GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS FASTER AND
STRONGER THAN THE GFS...DEPICTING RAIN AT OUR COAST BEFORE THE
END OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 17/06Z TAF CYCLE.

A MARINE LAYER PUSH HAS RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AND LOCALLY INTO COASTAL VALLEYS. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS
HAS BEGUN TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN BUT KRBG SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST RANGE IN CURRY COUNTY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY 17 UTC. AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY...AND SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST
AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE BY THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE COULD
RESULT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN OVERNIGHT. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ083>085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

DW/CMC