Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...22/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A BIG DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AS ADVERTISED. THERE HAVE BEEN
THOUSANDS OF STRIKES ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA.

THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE
CWA AND THE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT. THE
PATH OF THE LOW WILL MAKE FOR STEERING WINDS SOUTH 10-20 KNOTS
EAST OF THE CASCADES...BUT LIGHT WEST OF THE CASCADES. SO...WILL
HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING WEST OF THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT AS THE CUTOFF DEPARTS THE AREA
AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH AS THE LONG WAVE "KICKER" TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...AND
SHORT WAVES EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AND
IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO CREATE MUCH ACTIVITY HERE...BUT
SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE MEDFORD CWA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT THE LEAST BRING IN SOME ONSHORE MARINE
PUSHES...BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

MORE WAVES WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT WAVES DIVING
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG IN PLACE AND
SO IT WON'T BE MOVING ONSHORE UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIME FRAME...BOTH
BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN IN THE SAME MODEL...SO WILL GO
WITH AN OFFSHORE LONG WAVE TROUGH SCENARIO THROUGH THE EXTENDED
UNTIL THE PICTURE GETS A CLEARER. THIS MEANS THAT THE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME MENTION OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY FROM THE
CASCADES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THAT
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/18Z TAF CYCLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR FOR
        ORZ030-031.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000 FEET
        FOR FOR ORZ023-024-026-028.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY ABOVE 500 FEET FOR FOR
        ORZ025.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR FOR
        ORZ027.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000 FEET
        FOR FOR CAZ080.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ082>085.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

15/15/01

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
210 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

CAZ080-081-ORZ024-026-028-222200-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY CA-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY
OR-JACKSON COUNTY OR-SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES
OR-WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY CA-
210 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CURRY...SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM PDT...

AT 205 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MT. ASHLAND
TO OBRIEN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CAVE JUNCTION...SQUAW
LAKES...APPLEGATE LAKE...TAKILMA...MOUNT ASHLAND...OBRIEN...GRAYBACK
MOUNTAIN TRAIL...OREGON CAVES...MCKEE BRIDGE...KERBY...WILLIAMS...
CANTRALL BUCKLEY COUNTY PARK...WOODRAT MOUNTAIN...RUCH AND APPLEGATE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4235 12268 4194 12264 4164 12366 4183 12371
      4186 12366 4189 12364 4189 12361 4191 12360
      4191 12356 4199 12355 4199 12384 4233 12402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 175DEG 15KT 4203 12277 4202 12369

STAVISH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
525 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N CAVE JUNCTION       42.19N 123.65W
08/22/2013  M0.75 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT FROM 1000-1500 PDT

&&

BUNNAG