Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Warnings in 2013

Tornado Warning 38, NWS St. Louis, MO

November 17, 2013Macoupin County, Montgomery County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this tornado warning at Nov 17, 2013, 11:21 AM CST for Macoupin County, Montgomery County, Illinois. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 17, 2013, 11:21 AM CST (17:21 UTC)
Expired: Nov 17, 2013, 11:45 AM CST
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 1.0 in

Counties Macoupin County, IL, Montgomery County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Nov 17, 8:40 AM CST	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1021 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 506 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 398 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 396 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.7
Supercell composite: 11.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

651 
WFUS53 KLSX 171721
TORLSX
ILC117-135-171745-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0038.131117T1721Z-131117T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1121 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
  NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CST

* AT 1119 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CARLINVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
  MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
           WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
           LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RAYMOND...ATWATER...WAGGONER AND HARVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3923 8981 3931 8986 3949 8953 3944 8952
      3936 8952 3935 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 246DEG 48KT 3930 8975

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

CVKING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Nov 17, 11:10 AM CST, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 17, 11:10 AM CST, 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1110 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

Latest round of storms have moved off to the east and southeast
early this morning. Could still see some scattered activity in warm
sector, but better chances later this morning and through the
afternoon hours as strong cold front slides through region. Strong
to severe storms still possible for portions of the forecast area,
mainly along and east of Mississippi River with best chance further
east over eastern IL and most of Indiana where there is a high risk
of severe weather. SPC has placed eastern portions of our forecast
area in a moderate risk for severe storms, so added severe mention
in the weather grids for this area. All of this is due to a surface
low currently over northeastern KS that will continue to deepen as
negatively tilted upper level trof helps to lift it northeast into
Great Lakes region. This combined with broad low level jet which
will continue to advect plenty of moisture into the area resulting
in moderate instability. As cap erodes by late morning, discrete
cells to develop over east central/southeastern MO as well as
southwestern IL which will eventually merge into a line and race
east. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds, as
well as a few tornadoes. With the rapid movement of the front the
storms should move out of the forecast area by 00z Monday.

Another issue to deal with today will be the winds, as gradient
tightens ahead of system will see winds pickup by mid morning
sustained between 20 and 30 mph, gusting to near 40 mph at times.
Winds to persist behind the strong cold front as well before
diminishing early this evening. So have kept wind advisory for today
from 10 am to 6 pm.

One last above normal day as temperatures rise into the mid 60s to
mid 70s, then temperatures to remain steady or slowly fall during
the afternoon hours as the front slides through.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

As system exits the area this evening, surface ridge to build in and
winds diminish. Colder air to filter in with lows dipping down into
the mid 30s to low 40s, about 20 to 30 degrees colder then
temperatures are this morning.

Surface ridge to remain over region through Monday night before
moving off to the east. In the meantime, highs on Monday will only
be in the 50s with lows Monday night in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Beyond that, extended models show southerly flow returning to the
area by mid week. Several weak shortwaves to slide through the area
for the rest of the forecast period with chances of rain Wednesday
through early Saturday. Extended models are indicating colder air
to filter in by Friday night with rain becoming mixed with snow
before ending.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2013

Thunderstorms should clear all terminals within the first few
hours of the TAF period. Winds will shift to the west behind a
cold front. Gusty winds will persist for the rest of the afternoon
with gusts up to 40 kts possible. Gustiness will decrease after
sunset however sustained winds will remain above 10 kts overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms should clear the terminal by
19z. Winds will shift to the west behind a cold front. Gusty
winds will persist for the rest of the afternoon with gusts up to
40 kts possible. Gustiness will decrease after sunset however
sustained winds will remain above 10 kts overnight.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby MO-St. Charles MO-St.
     Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve
     MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Adams IL-Bond IL-
     Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
     IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 17, 4:24 AM CST, 6 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
424 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-181200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
424 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS TODAY. A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS
THREAT...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS TODAY.

BYRD

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 17, 11:04 AM CST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1104 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HAIL             3 N ALTON               38.95N  90.15W
11/17/2013  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WITH SOME SLIGHTLY LARGER

&&

MILLER

Local storm report, Nov 17, 11:12 AM CST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1112 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HAIL             2 N NEW MELLE           38.74N  90.88W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO 50MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

GOSSELIN

Local storm report, Nov 17, 11:13 AM CST, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1113 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE ASHLAND           38.83N  92.22W
11/17/2013  M54 MPH          BOONE              MO   ASOS

            GRADIENT WIND

&&

MILLER

Local storm report, Nov 17, 11:15 AM CST, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     HAIL             6 S CARLINVILLE         39.19N  89.88W
11/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

Local storm report, Nov 17, 11:18 AM CST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1118 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 AM     HAIL             CARLINVILLE             39.28N  89.88W
11/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

Local storm report, Nov 17, 11:20 AM CST, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE BURTON             39.94N  91.20W
11/17/2013  M58 MPH          ADAMS              IL   ASOS

            GRADIENT WIND

&&

MILLER

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 17, 11:04 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jersey, Macoupin, Montgomery	41 min
Nov 17, 11:11 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Macoupin, Montgomery	19 min
Nov 17, 11:38 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Madison, Monroe, Saint Clair	37 min
Nov 17, 11:41 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Montgomery	19 min
Nov 17, 11:49 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Randolph	26 min
Nov 17, 11:53 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Clinton, Washington	37 min
Nov 17, 11:56 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Bond, Clinton, Fayette	34 min
Nov 17, 12:09 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Randolph	21 min
Nov 17, 12:14 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	LSX	Marion	46 min
Nov 17, 12:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Bond, Fayette, Madison, Montgomery	51 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Illinois, 2013 Every tornado warning in 2013 Tornadoes in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.