Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS St. Louis, MO

844 
WGUS73 KLSX 270159
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
859 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

MOC113-270500-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130427T0500Z/
/00000.2.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LINCOLN MO-
859 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN
COUNTY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 844 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT THERE HAS BEEN 
LITTLE CHANGE THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH WATER LEVELS ALONG STATE 
HIGHWAY N TO THE EAST OF WINFIELD.  HOWEVER...WATER IS STILL 
SPILLING THROUGH THE LEVEE BREAK ALONG BOB'S CREEK INTO AREAS EAST 
OF HIGHWAY 79 BETWEEN WINFIELD AND FOLEY.  WATER LEVELS STILL MAY 
RISE IN HOMES EAST OF FOLEY AND IN WINFIELD ACRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9069 3899 9068 3897 9068 3897 9074
      3905 9074 3905 9071

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND FINALLY INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A PERSISTENT
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF THE LOW FORCED BY
THE LOW LEVEL JET.  BELIEVE THIS WILL BE A HIGH POP...BUT RELATIVELY
LOW QPF EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.  HOWEVER...PRECIP TOTALS WILL
INCREASE SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT UP TO
1/4 INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INCREASING TO AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH AROUND 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY MORE ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS LATE SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN COOLISH IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS.  SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST.  LOOKS LIKE
THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI.
THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

STILL TRACKING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS TROF WILL SHARPEN UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROF WILL PROCEED INTO
THE MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.  MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TROF/COLD FRONT AND HAS THE ENTIRE CWFA IN THE COLD SECTOR BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT BACK OVER NORTHWEST
MISSOURI.  AM STICKING WITH THE CENTRAL REGION ALL MODEL BLEND WHICH
IS ACTUALLY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE COOLER THAN A
PURE AVERAGE.  THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST WILL THEREFORE HAVE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS OPPOSED TO WARM AND
DRY WEATHER AS SUGGESTED BY THE EUROPEAN.  TEMPS FALL BELOW NORMAL
AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS...AND COOL
WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CUTS OFF AND SITS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OR MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER RAIN WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN THRUST
OF RAIN SHOULD COME THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSH INTO THE REGION. HAVE BROUGHT CEILING DOWN
TO MVFR CATEGORY BUT AM NOT SOLD ON IFR CONDITIONS YET...WOULD
RATHER TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. OTHERWISE...WITH UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME EAST.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A RAMPING UP OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. COULD BE A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN...BUT WILL HAVE TO NOWCAST THIS BASED
ON RADAR AS WE GET CLOSER. OTHERWISE...CEILING TO LOWER TO MVFR
AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LOW TRACKING
OVERHEAD.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SAINT LOUIS     50  59  52  68 /  80  80  40  10
QUINCY          48  58  48  68 /  60  60  30  10
COLUMBIA        49  57  49  70 /  80  80  30   5
JEFFERSON CITY  50  58  49  70 /  80  80  30   5
SALEM           48  59  52  67 /  80  80  50  20
FARMINGTON      47  58  50  67 /  90  80  40  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
351 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF SAINT LOUIS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

POINTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE SAINT LOUIS...THE
ILLINOIS RIVER... AND THE KASKASKIA RIVER ARE IN MAJOR FLOOD.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER AND THE KASKASKIA RIVER WILL
REMAIN IN MAJOR FLOOD. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENT
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARNEY