Red Flag Warning 3, NWS North Platte, NE

Arthur County, NE, Blaine County, NE, Brown County, NE, Chase County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Custer County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Garden County, NE, Garfield County, NE, Grant County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Holt County, NE, Hooker County, NE, Keith County, NE, Lincoln County, NE, Logan County, NE, Loup County, NE, McPherson County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Rock County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Thomas County, NE, Wheeler County, NE

622 
WWUS83 KLBF 262356
RFWLBF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
656 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013


NEZ204-206-209-210-219-270100-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130427T0000Z/
EASTERN PANHANDLE/CRESCENT LAKE NWR-
SANDHILLS/VALENTINE NWR/NEBRASKA NATIONAL FOREST/
SAMUEL R MCKELVIE NATIONAL FOREST-LOUP RIVERS BASIN-
FRENCHMAN BASIN-LOESS PLAINS-
656 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013 /556 PM MDT FRI APR 26 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN AND 
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

WIND IS LESS THAN 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS 15 PERCENT OR
GREATER. 

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE H850 MB THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND NEARLY FULL SUN SUPPORT MIXING
TO 700 MB AND HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS SFC TO 700 MB REMAIN MOSTLY
NORTH AND WEAK AT 25 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NEARLY NEUTRAL
THERMAL ADVECTION. GIVEN THE DRY AIR...LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40
ARE FCST TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON
TEMPERATURES...AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE
FORECASTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

BY TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH FROM CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 26/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF LOOKS THE
BEST FOR US IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION. IT STALLS A FRONT/SFC
BOUNDARY TUESDAY ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER...WITH EASTERLY SFC WINDS
ADVECTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. TUESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS KS...WHILE A NORTHERN PLAINS JET STREAK
CROSSES THE DAKOTAS PLACING OUR AREA IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME RISK OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA. THE 26/00Z GFS INDICATES A SIMILAR SCENARIO...BUT STALLS
THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE MODEL TRENDS REGARDING THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL CAP POPS AT 40 PERCENT UNTIL
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE 26/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS FINALLY LET GO
OF IT/S SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. IT/S NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE 26/00Z GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND DIGS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS DUE TO A BLOCKY DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN THE FORECAST FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE TEMPERATURES WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY. 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL AND 50
PERCENT OF THE REST OF THE MODEL DATA PRODUCES RH AROUND 20 PERCENT
BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT GUSTING TO JUST 20 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
436 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-270945-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
436 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013 /336 AM MDT FRI APR 26 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
IF MOISTURE CAN RETURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH AND LARGE HAIL IS
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CDC