Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS JSJ

425 
WGCA72 TJSJ 062122
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 PM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

PRC127-139-062130-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-131006T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
522 PM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM AST FOR TRUJILLO
ALTO AND SAN JUAN MUNICIPALITIES...

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH AFFECTED THIS AREA 
HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED AWAY. U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS INDICATE THAT 
THE RIO PIEDRAS IS NOW BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND RECEDING. NO 
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS AT 
THIS TIME. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 1838 6608 1839 6602 1831 6597 1832 6608

$$

JJA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...NOT QUITE AS MUCH CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS ANTICIPATED. BUT CLOUDS ARE STILL LIMITED ENOUGH
SO SOME SURFACE WARMING AND RESULTING INSTABILITY STILL POSSIBLE.
LITTLE WIND FLOW BELOW 300 MB SO MOST SHOWERS WILL STAY INLAND.

TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER JUST
EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...
2.51 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON 12Z SOUNDING AT GUADELOUPE
(TFFR). STILL...LIMITED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES. GFS SHOWS HIGH 1000-700 MB THETA-E (OVER 340K) ARRIVING
INTO ST. CROIX TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT...ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER...THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
OVER PR LATER ON MON FOR NUMEROUS CATEGORY ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH OF AN INCH...PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT WEEK. BUT WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER
JET LEVEL WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC RATHER QUIET. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TO SEE IF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH THIS WEEK
TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. SO FAR...THAT APPEARS TO
BE A NO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES UNTIL 06/19Z.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BRING VCSH THEN TSRA TO TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM
06/19Z UNTIL AROUND 06/21Z REDUCING VIS AND VRB WINDS. VCSH/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS AFTER 06/18Z UNTIL AROUND 06/22Z. THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AND
SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO SE.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND CORRESPONDING LOW SEAS. BUT
WIND/SEAS WILL BOTH BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  78  88 /  20  50  10  30
STT  78  89  79  89 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

02/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
652 AM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-071100-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
652 AM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING TO THE REGION TODAY TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON
MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-071100-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
652 AM AST SUN OCT 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING TO THE REGION TODAY TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON
MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS.