Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013

.UPDATE...UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION INTO
THE LOCAL REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH STRONG
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAVE AFFECTED MOST OF THE AREA AND
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
THE SURROUNDING WATERS UNTIL IT PASSES BY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE SHRA/TSRA TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
AFTER 18/16Z FOR TNCM/TKPK AND TIST/TISX...GRADUALLY IMPROVING FOR
THE PR TERMINALS BY 18/22Z AS THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES.

MARINE...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. MAJOR HAZARD FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013/

SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...AS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO/USVI AS WELL AS THE SURROUNDING WATERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
BY MIDDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY
OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE...AND LOT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...DECIDED
TO EXPAND THE WATCH TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRIER AIR MASS TO PRODUCE A GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SPRINKLES EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO EACH
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ONE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY.

AVIATION...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE SHRA/TSRA TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE LIKELY AND
BRIEF IFR ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. WX CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY AFTER 18/16Z FOR TNCM/TKPK AND TIST/TIST...GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FOR THE PR TERMINALS BY 18/22Z AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18/22Z.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. MAJOR HAZARD CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  79  92  80 /  70  20  10  10
STT  89  80  91  82 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
     INTERIOR-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
     CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...
&&

05/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-191100-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
605 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL AREA. HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...URBAN AND AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. RIVER FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-191100-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
605 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...URBAN AND AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1156 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-182000-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1156 AM AST THU JUL 18 2013

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL AT LEAST 4
PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1208 PM AST THU JUL 18 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-182030-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1208 PM AST THU JUL 18 2013

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST UNTIL AT LEAST 4
PM AST.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

COMUNICADO ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1156 AM AST JUEVES 18 DE JULIO DE 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-182000-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-ESTE INTERIOR-NORTE CENTRAL-
INTERIOR CENTRAL-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y
VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/E ISLAS
ADYACENTES-ST CROIX-
1156 AM AST JUEVES 18 DE JULIO DE 2013

...FUERTES AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PRODUCIENDO FRECUENTES RELAMPAGOS...

EL RADAR DOPPLER DETECTO AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS...ALGUNOS CON LLUVIAS
MUY FUERTES...FUERTES VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS...Y FRECUENTES RELAMPAGOS A
TRAVES DE PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA Y VIEQUES. ESTOS AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS CONTINUARAN MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE NOROESTE HASTA AL MENOS LAS
4 PM AST.

SE REPORTAN RAYOS INTENSOS CON ESTAS TRONADAS. SI SE ENCUENTRA EN EL
EXTERIOR...ALEJESE DE LOS OBJETOS ALTOS TALES COMO ARBOLES. MUEVASE
A UN EDIFICIO SI ES POSIBLE. CUANDO SE ENCUENTRE EN EL
INTERIOR...MANTENGASE LEJOS DE LAS VENTASAS Y PUERTAS Y EVITE
UTILIZAR TELEFONOS A MENOS QUE SEA UNA EMERGENCIA. INTENTE
DESCONECTAR ENSERES ELECTRICOS ANTES DE QUE SE ACERQUE LA TORMENTA.

ACP/JAE