Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...THRU FRIDAY...CONVERGENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE COAST ARE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
INSTABILITY DRIVING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...THUS MUCH OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE ASHORE OFF THE OCEAN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN...AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY.
MODELS ARE NOT HINTING AT A MORE DOMINANT BAND DEVELOPING FRIDAY
MORNING AS WAS SEEN ACROSS THE FL/GA LINE THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
THIS PATTERN AN EAST WEST ORIENTED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FORECASTING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THRU WED...SIMILAR PATTERN SATURDAY
COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVNG T-STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND...MID 80S COAST.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER CTRL U.S....LEADING SHORTWAVE TROF TO DIVE
SE OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NGT/SAT...THEN OFF EAST COAST SUN.
THIS HELPS PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
THE FRONT WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD...
PUSHING GREATER RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA MON-WED. MADE SOME CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS TO
REFLECT A MORE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF FRONT PER THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND AWAY FROM MORE
COASTAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING
AROUND KGNV THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGNV/KVQQ
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THRU SAT...WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS. COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WATERS SAT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS.
THIS SETS UP SLIGHTLY STRONGER E TO NE FLOW AND A SMALL INCREASE IN
SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  72  90 /  20  30  30  50
SSI  75  88  77  86 /  20  40  20  40
JAX  72  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  40
SGJ  74  87  73  86 /  30  40  20  40
GNV  71  90  72  90 /  40  50  40  50
OCF  72  91  73  90 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/STRUBLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-230900-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
444 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MIGRATES INTO INLAND LOCATIONS. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BLINDING DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS.

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ALTAMAHA AND
SATILLA RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES
STATIONARY.

STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ALTAMAHA AND SATILLA RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

NELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FLZ040-221815-
MARION-
131 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

AT 131 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF FORT MCCOY TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOSS BLUFF...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
LAKE DELANCY...SALT SPRINGS...ORANGE SPRINGS...JUNIPER SPRINGS...HOG
VALLEY...FORT MCCOY...CITRA...LYNNE...MOSS BLUFF AND BURBANK THROUGH
215 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2942 8220 2945 8219 2947 8223 2946 8219
      2943 8219 2942 8214 2944 8206 2950 8200
      2952 8184 2949 8184 2948 8177 2938 8174
      2936 8166 2933 8168 2928 8164 2905 8163
      2904 8165 2897 8165 2895 8171 2895 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 044DEG 12KT 2933 8195 2901 8177

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
136 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FLZ021-022-221815-
COLUMBIA-SUWANNEE-
136 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
COLUMBIA AND SOUTHERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER OBRIEN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WELLBORN...
OBRIEN...MCALPIN AND BRANFORD THROUGH 215 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3031 8274 3002 8272 2989 8291 2989 8292
      2995 8293 2996 8296 2999 8297 3000 8300
      3002 8301 3007 8307 3008 8308 3010 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 048DEG 11KT 3004 8294

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
137 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FLZ035-221830-
GILCHRIST-
137 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
GILCHRIST COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

AT 138 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF
TRENTON TO 5 MILES WEST OF TRENTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THESE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TRENTON THROUGH
230 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2964 8296 2970 8296 2973 8295 2972 8266
      2956 8266 2955 8276 2958 8278 2958 8296
      2959 8297 2963 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 031DEG 5KT 2958 8270 2960 8291

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FLZ033-221845-
ST. JOHNS-
158 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ST. JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES NORTH OF VILANO BEACH...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH...VILANO BEACH...SAINT
AUGUSTINE...ANASTASIA...SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE
SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...BUTLER BEACH...ELKTON AND DUPONT
CENTER THROUGH 245 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2966 8124 2977 8154 2980 8157 3008 8136
      3006 8132 2994 8129 2988 8126 2979 8125
      2970 8121 2968 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 027DEG 11KT 2996 8131

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
208 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FLZ040-221900-
MARION-
208 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 208 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FLEMINGTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUNIPER SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND SPARR...REDDICK...MCINTOSH...JUNIPER SPRINGS...FORT
MCCOY...FLEMINGTON...CITRA...BURBANK...LOWELL AND LYNNE THROUGH 300
PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2918 8254 2922 8253 2922 8241 2948 8241
      2949 8222 2946 8219 2946 8221 2943 8221
      2942 8214 2944 8206 2949 8203 2948 8199
      2946 8183 2929 8168 2923 8163 2905 8163
      2904 8165 2895 8167 2895 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 035DEG 9KT 2943 8237 2909 8169

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FLZ021-221900-
SUWANNEE-
210 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUWANNEE COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
HOUSTON TO BRANFORD...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WELLBORN...HOUSTON...
BRANFORD...OBRIEN...OBRIEN...MCALPIN...NEWBURN...LURAVILLE...LIVE OAK
AND DOWLING PARK THROUGH 300 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3031 8322 3035 8322 3036 8319 3029 8281
      2993 8281 2991 8286 2988 8288 2989 8292
      2995 8293 3008 8308 3010 8315 3010 8321
      3011 8323 3026 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 102DEG 6KT 3021 8291 2997 8291

HESS