Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
857 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 857 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2013

Line of showers and thunderstorms moving into the area little
quicker than models seemed to indicate and what is in the grids.
So will be updating pops/wx in forecast for sooner onset of pcpn.
Skies will be cloudy overnight as well. Pcpn will linger overnight
across most of the area so may need to adjust pops/wx/qpf for
overnight as well. Remainder of forecast with temps and winds look
ok but may make minor tweaks in grids for remainder of the night.
Update will be coming out shortly.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 654 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2013

All sites should be VFR through the period, except for maybe a
brief period of MVFR as a line of showers and storms move through
the area tonight. Models bring this line of showers and storms
into the area toward midnight, but current speed and radar trends
seem to show that the line will be coming in sooner. So have
changed start time of line of storms to sooner and added a tempo
group to all sites, though think line will diminish some as it
moves across the area this evening. 4km SPC-WRF and HRRR indicated
this, but both were also slower on bringing the line in, so think
pcpn maybe stronger as it moves into the area and then diminish
some as it moves toward DEC and CMI. Line is moving east, but
storms are moving northeast, so have tempo group for 3 hours and
then will keep light rain and VCTS for several hours after. Then
mid and high clouds should prevail once pcpn moves away from the
sites. Could be some lower clouds, but not confident enough to put
in TAFs at this time. Winds will be southwest and then become west
to northwest behind the line.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2013

Mid summer-like heat and humidity continue across central and
southeast Illinois in the southerly flow ahead of a cold front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are firing across the Midwest
in the uncapped and unstable airmass to the east of the front,
which currently extends from northwest Ontario into the southern
Plains. Main forecast concerns today revolve around precipitation
chances until the front clears the area on Friday. Otherwise, much
of the next several days should see quiet weather. It will be
cooler as well, albeit still above normal for late September.

12Z models in good agreement overall over the next several days.
However, there are some notable differences with respect to how
much rainfall is generated with the frontal passage, as well as
with some weak disturbances that pass near the area next week.
Considering the developing drought conditions and the way many
recent systems have behaved, have tended to lean toward the drier
solutions. At least in the very near term, this thinking is agreed
upon by many of the very short range/mesoscale models.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday: The cold front is progged to
enter the forecast area overnight, and exit the region to the east
Friday afternoon or early evening. The pre frontal airmass is
quite juicy, but the front will be moving through most of the area
at an unfavorable time of day instability wise (ie. late tonight
and Friday morning). The frontal timing should tend to limit storm
coverage and intensity, a fact agreed upon by many of the meso
models.

Much cooler temperatures will return to the area behind the front,
with readings near or below normal for the weekend. Canadian high
pressure and the associated dry airmass will keep conditions quiet
for the rest of the period post fropa.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday: Upper ridging will begin to
build across the area to start next week, and low level flow will
turn southerly as the surface high drifts off to the east. This
pattern shift will signal a return to above normal temperatures
for most of the week. Dry conditions should linger for the most
part as well. However, will need to keep an eye on a wave progged
to top the ridge around Tuesday. This system has the potential to
be a rain producer locally, although the best chances should stay
to our west and north.

Bak

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-201100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
303 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>055-061-201100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
303 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-201100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
303 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1021 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

ILZ029-036-037-040-041-047-048-200415-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-MENARD-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-TAZEWELL-
1021 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SCHUYLER...FULTON...
MASON...NORTHWESTERN CASS...NORTHWESTERN MENARD...SOUTHERN PEORIA AND
WESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1018 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MOUNT STERLING...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CANTON...
  ST. DAVID...
  LEWISTOWN...
  ASTORIA...
  BROWNING...
  GLASFORD...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BERNADOTTE...RAY...FREDERICK...
BRYANT...NORRIS AND DUNFERMLINE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4029 9047 4029 9045 4030 9046 4063 9007
      4071 8935 4014 8995 4008 9014 3999 9054
      4001 9062 4003 9063 4005 9068 4007 9068
      4008 9071
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 249DEG 43KT 4048 9021 4007 9065

AUTEN