Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Lincoln, IL

775 
WGUS73 KILX 230308
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1008 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

ILC025-033-049-079-159-173-230323-
/O.CAN.KILX.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-130623T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JASPER IL-RICHLAND IL-SHELBY IL-CLAY IL-CRAWFORD IL-EFFINGHAM IL-
1008 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EFFINGHAM...
CRAWFORD...CLAY...SHELBY...RICHLAND AND JASPER COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3861 8870 3891 8869 3891 8881 3922 8881
      3922 8914 3935 8914 3935 8903 3965 8903
      3965 8902 3965 8881 3959 8881 3958 8872
      3952 8872 3945 8847 3917 8847 3917 8766
      3895 8751 3885 8754 3885 8791 3857 8792

$$

HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE WITH THE CLUSTERS OF STORMS DROPPING HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR E-SE COUNTIES. THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW AND MONDAY...WHERE SPC HAS
DEFINED A SLIGHT RISK EACH DAY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY NW OF
PEORIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING MESO-SCALE
STORM COMPLEXES IN THIS SUMMER-TIME PATTERN...SO WILL KEEP MAINLY
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. WE WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TUE-WED BASED ON A PERCEIVED LULL IN THE MODELS...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT RAMPING UP STORMS BOTH THOSE DAYS AS BOUNDARIES
AND SHORTWAVES BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING S AND W
FROM OUR NE COUNTIES. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND FLOODED ROADS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
VARIOUS FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. VERY FEW HAIL AND WIND REPORTS HAVE COME
IN...DESPITE STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THE STORM CORES. MARGINAL
DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND VERY WARM LOW LEVELS MAY BE ACCOUNTING FOR SOME
OF THE LACK OF HAIL/WIND. INSTABILITY PARAMS SHOW SUFFICIENT ML-
CAPE FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING IN THE SE
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA /FA/. WE WILL INDICATE THAT IN THE SHORT
TERM GRIDS...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OUR NW AREAS.

SPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2 INTO OUR NW COUNTIES WITH
THE 18Z UPDATE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW. SEVERE WEATHER CAN OCCUR IN AND AROUND ANY
SLIGHT RISK AREA...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE ANYWHERE IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC AND
MESO-SCALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS...SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS FOR THE STORM CLUSTERS THAT EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP OFF SLIGHTLY TO 1.5 INCHES
BOTH DAYS...BUT FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM COVERAGE
IN THE MODELS...MAINLY DUE TO AN EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND STORMS CONFINED FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THEREFORE...WE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE NE HALF FOR
NOW.

HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN A PROMINENT WEATHER FEATURE
OVER THE SHORT TERM...BUT NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AS
HEAT INDEX READINGS TOP OUT BETWEEN 95 AND 100. 105 TRIGGERS AN
ADVISORY. STILL, VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT THROUGH HERE...POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE
WEST OF OUR COUNTIES...WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH PER THE
12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THAT SURFACE
FEATURE...AND KEEPS STORMS AT BAY UNTIL WED NIGHT. WE KEPT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED AS A RESULT...WITH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THAT TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE PROGRESS ACROSS
THE AREA.

A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD COME WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH
SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF THAT FEATURE...BUT DIFFER ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND COVERAGE...WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS
DURING THAT TRANSITION PERIOD. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE FRONT DEPARTS.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID 80S...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 60S...AND
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
SLIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S BY SATURDAY AS WELL.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN TERMINAL WILL PRODUCE
HIGHEST COVERAGE TSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING CMI AND
POSSIBLY DEC. VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES BRINGING VSBYS DOWN BELOW 1SM
IN HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FARTHER WEST AND HAVE CARRIED VCTS THROUGH AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH NOT MUCH FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAINLY VFR SKIES EXPECTED. LATER FORECASTS WILL
ADDRESS POSSIBLE MVFR FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN
LIGHTER WIND REGIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER 10 KTS
AFTER 14Z/SUN.

25
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-232045-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF
PEORIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-048>057-061-232045-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-232045-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
335 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
204 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE WHITE HEATH       40.14N 88.47W
06/22/2013  M2.02 INCH       PIATT              IL   COCORAHS

            90 MINUTE TOTAL BUT MOST FELL IN 40 MINUTES

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PANA                    39.39N 89.08W
06/22/2013  M1.19 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   MESONET

            RAIN TOTAL SINCE 1230. SWOP REPORT.

0150 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW CHAMPAIGN         40.10N 88.27W
06/22/2013  M1.63 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   COCORAHS

            RAIN FELL IN TWO HOURS

&&

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

ILZ042-043-051-053-222045-
DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-SANGAMON-
302 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON...
NORTHWESTERN MACON...SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN DE WITT
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LATHAM...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF DECATUR.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WARRENSBURG...
  KENNEY...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4009 8885 3986 8900 3991 8933 4018 8921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 273DEG 2KT 3998 8916

CHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW LATHAM             39.95N 89.19W
06/22/2013  M1.16 INCH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES. SWOP REPORT.

0301 PM     HAIL             2 SW LATHAM             39.95N 89.19W
06/22/2013  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

0253 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E MATTOON             39.48N 88.29W
06/22/2013  M2.36 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

            RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
331 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
06/22/2013  M2.06 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LATHAM                  39.97N 89.16W
06/22/2013                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREETS FLOODED WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF FLOWING WATER

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
338 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW LATHAM             39.95N 89.19W
06/22/2013  M2.30 INCH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

            RAIN FELL IN 45 MINUTES

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
346 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW LATHAM             40.00N 89.20W
06/22/2013                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER IL ROUTE 121 NEAR NARITA. OFFICIALS
            BARRICADING SOUTH BOUND LANE.

&&

25