Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Lincoln, IL

519 
WGUS73 KILX 010139
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
839 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ILC113-179-203-010330-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130601T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCLEAN IL-TAZEWELL IL-WOODFORD IL-
839 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WOODFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND WESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT...

AT 837 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT FLOODING WAS
OCCURRING IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST MCLEAN COUNTY...NEAR CARLOCK.
ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WARNED
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS KEEPING
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CARLOCK...DANVERS...DEER CREEK...DELAVAN...EL PASO...GOODFIELD...
GRIDLEY...HOPEDALE...HUDSON...MACKINAW...MINIER...STANFORD...TOWANDA
AND TREMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES... AS WELL AS
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8892 4076 8887 4058 8885 4037 8934
      4032 8957 4032 8963 4051 8964 4081 8893

$$

SMITH

123 
WGUS73 KILX 010321
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ILC113-179-203-010336-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130601T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCLEAN IL-TAZEWELL IL-WOODFORD IL-
1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
WOODFORD...SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND WESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4076 8892 4076 8887 4058 8885 4037 8934
      4032 8957 4032 8963 4051 8964 4081 8893

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRACKING ENE ACROSS
CENTRAL THRU EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT BAY...AT LEAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
A FEW LOW 80S OVER EXTREME SE IL WHERE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN HAS STAYED AWAY FROM FOR NOW. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...INSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD DOWN SOME WITH
THE HIGHER CAPES ACRS FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT SETTING UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM
OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACRS OUR AREA SATURDAY. BUT BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...SEVERAL OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING THE THREAT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND SLOW
MOVING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO ENE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE IL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH 850 MB
THETA-E AIR AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS MORNINGS 850 MB CHART SHOWED DEW POINTS IN THE 15-18 DEGREE C
RANGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NAM-WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 12000 FEET OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL LATER
THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHERN IL. IT APPEARS THE RIVERS IN EAST
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY
FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVER LEVELS LATER TONIGHT AND
THRU THE WEEKEND...WHEREAS THE NORTHERN BASINS APPEAR TO BE TOO
FAR NORTH THIS TIME FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. HOWEVER...UNTIL
WE SEE THIS SCENARIO START TO EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING THRU SATURDAY (SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW). THE COMBINATION
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE
SOUTH...SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MCS
TRACKS FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS
TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JUST WHAT AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING CONVECTION HAS ON ANY REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IS A REAL CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT AS EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT
SCENARIO. IT STILL APPEARS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-55 STAND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SHOWER THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOMORROW
EVENING ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT SO WILL START TO SHAVE THE POPS BACK
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SETTLING IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD IN FOR A
DAY OR TWO BEFORE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER WAY TRACKS ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING IN THE FAR WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST LATE THU INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SMITH
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY FALLING AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
REACH KCMI BY 19Z. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHOWERS...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC...IT APPEARS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT BOTH KPIA AND KBMI UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. AFTER THAT...EMPHASIS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TRAINING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL SET UP...WITH THE I-72
TERMINALS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z
ACCORDINGLY AT KSPI...KDEC...AND KCMI. AFTER THAT...LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 18Z
PRIMARILY ALONG/EAST OF I-55.

BARNES
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED 245 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
TRENDS IN MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THE EMPHASIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH...WHICH IS ACTUALLY GOOD NEWS FOR THE DRENCHED SPOON AND
ILLINOIS BASINS. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE SANGAMON...WABASH AND
LITTLE WABASH...AND EMBARRAS BASINS HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEEING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT AS A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ENE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IL.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WE SHOULD NOT ONLY SEE AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL BUT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-011100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG MANY AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE
ILLINOIS...THE SPOON...AND THE MACKINAW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-051>053-011100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-PIATT-SANGAMON-
VERMILION-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL SET UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SANGAMON RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
321 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THUNDERSTORM CELLS TRAINING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IS EXPECTED.
THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN MANY LOW-LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS RIVERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AND
ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
131 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W BROOKLYN            40.23N 90.88W
05/30/2013                   SCHUYLER           IL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            SOME SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN AT THE WEINBERG KING STATE
            FISH AND WILDLIFE AREA. LARGER TREES BLOWN DOWN ALONG
            HIGHWAY 101 EAST OF AUGUSTA NEAR THE SCHUYLER AND HANCOCK
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
346 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S PETERSBURG          39.97N 89.85W
05/30/2013                   MENARD             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN AT NEW SALEM STATE PARK ALONG
            STATE HIGHWAY 97.

&&

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
412 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             39.45N 87.80W
05/30/2013                   CLARK              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME TREES BLOWN DOWN IN CLARKSVILLE

&&

JRP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
420 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

ILZ031-037-038-312215-
MCLEAN-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
420 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TAZEWELL...NORTHERN
MCLEAN AND SOUTHERN WOODFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DANVERS TO MINIER TO
HOPEDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STANFORD...
  DANVERS...
  EL PASO...
  GRIDLEY...
  HUDSON...
  NORMAL...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...CONGERVILLE...EVERGREEN LAKE...
KAPPA...LAKE BLOOMINGTON...WESTON AND PLEASANT HILL.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4060 8857 4036 8939 4046 8948 4075 8905
      4076 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 245DEG 45KT 4058 8916 4049 8928
          4043 8939

GOETSCH