Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Huntsville, AL

416 
WGUS74 KHUN 250049
FFSHUN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
749 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

ALC079-103-250056-
/O.CAN.KHUN.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130625T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORGAN AL-LAWRENCE AL-
749 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN MORGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3443 8725 3460 8726 3458 8709 3455 8694
      3442 8696

$$

CCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN, THUNDERSTORMS FORMED TO THE SOUTH, NORTH, AND EAST
BEFORE DEVELOPING HERE, BUT THEY ARE INDEED FIRING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS-
AL BORDER, AND THIS IS AIDING THE DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DESPITE THE LARGE AREA OF
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG A
CONVERGENCE AXIS FORMED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO THE SOUTH (DUE TO
STORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AL) AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RIVER-EFFECT
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH.

THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT, SO STORMS MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AND A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT EITHER. IT MAY EVEN LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS TOMORROW, CLOSER TO THE GA STATE LINE. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY PER THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS, SO CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED (30-40% POP) EACH OF
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE SUCCESSFULLY GOTTEN
INTO THE 90S DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S TOMORROW, AND POSSIBLY COULD REACH THE MID 90S WEDNESDAY.

A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WHICH
WILL START THE PROCESS OF CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS ALONE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LET ALONE ANY UPSTREAM MCS FORMATION
OR REMNANT OUTFLOWS. AS IS TYPICAL FOR SUMMER, WE WILL BE HIGHLY
UNSTABLE BUT NOT TERRIBLY SHEARED, WITH A HIGH MELTING LEVEL, SO
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

A SECONDARY TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH, BUT THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. A DEEP
REINFORCING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CARVE OUT
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE RESULTING LOW WILL
PARK ITSELF OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SIT FOR SEVERAL DAYS,
PINWHEELING OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REFLECTS ENHANCED POPS DURING THE PERIODS WHERE
MODELS SHOW THE GREATEST CONSENSUS, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
CHANGE AS THE FORECAST FOR THIS ANOMALOUS (-2 TO -3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS) PATTERN EVOLVES. TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 00Z
GFSX MOS AND ECMWF MOS ARE SURPRISINGLY HIGH GIVEN THIS PATTERN. WE
WILL TREND THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH
ARE STILL AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF JUNE/EARLY JULY.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
MOISTURE AND PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DID
NOT INCLUDE A VCTS OR CATEGORICAL MENTION IN THE TAF...DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS...LOCAL VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING MVFR CIGS/VIS
REDUCTIONS TO BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD
MIX OUT...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    69  92  71  92 /  30  30  10  40
SHOALS        70  93  70  94 /  20  30  10  40
VINEMONT      69  90  69  91 /  30  30  10  40
FAYETTEVILLE  69  90  70  92 /  30  30  10  40
ALBERTVILLE   69  90  70  89 /  30  30  10  40
FORT PAYNE    67  89  67  89 /  30  30  10  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1251 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1251 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...AND CAPABLE
OF SUDDEN LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK WITH A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...SUDDEN
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD MAY BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
310 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

ALZ009-010-242100-
DE KALB AL-JACKSON AL-
310 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DE KALB AND CENTRAL
JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SECTION...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SCOTTSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENAGAR...SYLVANIA...HOLLYWOOD...SECTION...POWELL...PISGAH...IDER AND
DUTTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE
PARENT THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8593 3457 8610 3485 8589 3468 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 219DEG 13KT 3458 8596

CCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
402 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

ALZ006>008-242145-
MARSHALL AL-MORGAN AL-MADISON AL-
402 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...
NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OWENS CROSSROADS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW HOPE AND OWENS CROSSROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE
PARENT THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8678 3470 8658 3455 8633 3439 8654
      3438 8654 3436 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 216DEG 5KT 3449 8662

CCC