High Wind Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

902 
WWUS72 KGSP 252036
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET.
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...AND THE MOIST SOIL
COULD LEAD TO MORE FALLING TREES IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE HIGH
WINDS.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-260500-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0003.130226T0500Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.130226T0500Z-130226T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
336 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
EST TUESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
  BORDER AS WELL AS NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE 3500 FEET. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
  BELOW 3500 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAXIMIZE
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST
  AND WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65
  MPH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
  GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH BELOW 3500 FEET.

* IMPACTS...THE HIGH WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER
  LINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES AND SOME BLOCKED ROADWAYS. DRIVING
  MAY BE DIFFICULT AND LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

235 
WWUS72 KGSP 260331
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1031 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...AND THE
MOIST SOIL COULD LEAD TO MORE FALLING TREES IN AREAS IMPACTED BY
THE HIGH WINDS.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-261200-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0003.130226T0500Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.130226T0500Z-130226T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
1031 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY BELOW
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE 
  BORDER AS WELL AS NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE 3500 FEET. VERY WINDY 
  CONDITIONS BELOW 3500 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAXIMIZE 
  TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST 
  AND WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE HIGH WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...
  CAUSING POWER OUTAGES AND SOME BLOCKED ROADWAYS. DRIVING MAY BE
  DIFFICULT AND LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT. ICE
  ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES MAY YIELD ADDITIONAL
  DOWNED LIMBS AND POWERLINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

&&

$$

NED

845 
WWUS72 KGSP 261005
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET. MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...AND THE MOIST SOIL COULD LEAD TO MORE
FALLING TREES IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE HIGH WINDS.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-261815-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
505 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
BELOW 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE 
  BORDER AS WELL AS NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE 3500 FEET. VERY WINDY 
  CONDITIONS BELOW 3500 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE WINDS
  WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
  ABOVE 3500 FEET. SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
  BELOW 3500 FEET.

* IMPACTS...THE HIGH WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES
  CAUSING POWER OUTAGES AND SOME BLOCKED ROADWAYS. DRIVING MAY BE
  DIFFICULT AND LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT. ICE
  ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES MAY YIELD ADDITIONAL
  DOWNED LIMBS AND POWERLINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

&&

$$

SBK

567 
WWUS72 KGSP 261755
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1255 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FALLING INTO
ALREADY MOIST SOIL COULD LEAD TO MORE FALLING TREES IN AREAS
IMPACTED BY THE HIGH WINDS.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-262300-
/O.CAN.KGSP.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-130226T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
1255 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING...BUT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE 
  BORDER AS WELL AS NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND
  WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...THE HIGH WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES 
  CAUSING POWER OUTAGES AND SOME BLOCKED ROADWAYS. DRIVING MAY 
  BE DIFFICULT AND LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT. ICE 
  ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE EAST FACING SLOPES MAY YIELD ADDITIONAL 
  DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
WIMBERLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS MOISTURE
SPREADS OVER OUR REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT.  STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TODAY TO
WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR WWA SECTION...

A WELL DEFINED ULVL CONFLUENT ZONE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WHICH IS ALLOWING A 1025 MB OH VALLEY SFC HIGH TO RIDGE EAST AND
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN H5 S/W IS CROSSING TO THE SOUTH
AND BRINGING IN A WIDE AREA OF CI. THIS SCENARIO IS CAPTURED WELL BY
THE OP MODELS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING H5 CUTOFF LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE WILL DEVELOP TODAY WHILE MOISTURE FLUX OFF BOTH
THE GOM AND THE ATL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. CROSS SECTIONS ARE PRETTY
CONSISTENT ON THE GFS/NAM/SREF WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ISENT
OMEGA REACHING THE SRN ZONES AROUND 00Z AND SPREADING PRECIP OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA QUICKLY THROUGH 03Z. POPS WERE ADJ DOWN EARLY FOR A
SOMEWHAT LATER ONSET TIME...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR NEAR 100
POP BY 06Z THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COOLING NOR LOW TD/S ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEDGE...SO PRECIP TYPES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN AT ALL
LOCALES...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK MTNS AND THE
NRN MTNS WHERE PERIODS -FZRA WILL DEVELOP IN DIURNAL COOLING. MOST
OF THESE LOCATIONS WONT SEE SIGFNT ICE ACCUMS...BUT ISOLATED PEAKS
AROUND BEECH MTN COULD SEE A COUPLE TENTHS OF ICE AS THEY WILL
EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF ICING BEFORE LLVL WAA CHANGES ALL
PRECIP TO RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE NC ZONES...AROUND AN INCH...AND UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF
ACROSS THE SRN ZONES AND NE GA. THIS WONT CREATE ANY FLOODING
CONCERN DUE TO THE 12 HR TIMEFRAME...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
TUE MAY BEGIN TO ELEVATE SMALL STREAM AND CREEK LEVELS.

ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC OCCLUDED
SFC LOW TO THE WEST AND THE STRENGTHENING SFC RIDGE EAST. THIS WILL
SET UP A RATHER STRONG P/GRAD...BUT THE SFC WINDS WONT BECOME OVERLY
GUSTY WITH THE STRONGER VELOCITIES REMAINING ABOVE THE WEDGE
INVERSION. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WRN NC MTNS WILL LIKELY SEE
A SE/LY MTN WAVE SET UP AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FORCED TO THE SFC.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY GOOD ISENT DECENT AND RELATIVELY DEEP
NEG OMEGA AFT 06Z ALIGNED WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 55 KTS ABOVE 3.5 K
FEET. BASED ON GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH THIS IMPENDING SCENARIO...A HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE WRN NC MTNS ABOVE 3.5 K.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH WEDGE AND CLOUD COVER.
BLENDED THE OFFICIAL FCST WITH LOWER END METMOS GUIDANCE...WHICH
GAVE MAXES IN THE L50S NON/MTNS...AND U40S MTN VALLEYS. CONTINUED
NE/LY FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT GUSTING TO THE SFC...YET HIGH CLOUD
COVER...LOWS SHOULD DROP TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A LARGE AND DYNAMIC UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY...UP THE OH VALLEY...TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE TUESDAY...WITH A CLASSIC COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE IN PLACE AT SUNRISE WITH PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. THERE ARE MANY CONCERNS. HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE TN BORDER SO THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL
BE RUN THROUGH NOON. ANY LINGERING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE OVER THE NRN MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS SHOULD GO AWAY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. HEAVY RAIN IS ONE
OF THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...AND THE OTHER IS SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH OF
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF SC AND
NC...OFF TO OUR EAST...DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO DECREASE
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER THE MTNS AND BLUE RIDGE ALONG THE SC/NC
BORDER. PW ANOMALIES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE DOWNWARD QPF TREND. AS FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER...IF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM...WE COULD GET THE SRN/ERN PARTS OF METRO CLT
INTO THE WARMER AIR ON THE COASTAL SIDE OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER IN THE FCST THERE.

THE PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY...AFTER WHICH ANY LINGERING POP IS
RELEGATED TO THE MTNS...MOSTLY NEAR THE TN BORDER. THE MAIN CULPRIT
WILL BE WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INITIALLY AND IS ONLY
SLOWLY EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO W AND THEN NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN TO CHANGE THE P-TYPE TO SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY. SOME ACCUM SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON THE TN BORDER...AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE
OVER WRN PA/NY EARLY THU. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
LOCATION AND DEPTH OF THIS MAJOR FEATURE EARLY ON...BUT THEN VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON ADDITIONAL ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW AND CROSSING
THE REGION FRI THROUGH SUN.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS PA AND NY AREA TO THE EAST THURS THROUGH
FRI...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EAST TN UP AGAINST
THE NC MTNS. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST IN THIS MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD ON THURS AND GRADUALLY DECREASE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL
REFERENCED INTO THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS OVER THE MTNS WILL RANGE
FROM -5 TO -7C AT 12Z THURS BEING SLIGHTLY COLDEST IN THE ECMWF.
THESE 850MB TEMPS WARM A DEGREE OR TWO INTO FRI AND THEN COLDER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DOWN TO -8 TO -11C 12Z SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE FROM THE
WNW. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG WITH MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE...THE
WIND BECOMES NW WHICH IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY
ENHANCING THE UPSLOPE SNSH. ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY CROSSES SAT PM
AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A CUT OFF LOW WHICH KICKS OFF LIGHT
PRECIP OVER ALL OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GA SAT PM. THE
GFS HAS SOME PRECIP OVER NRN GA AND UPSTATE AND THE CMC LAYS OUT A
BROADER TROUGH AND SMALLER AMOUNTS OF SPOTTY PRECIP. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IF FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT MINS 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE FIRST SIGN OF THE NE RIDGE BUILDING IN IS SHOWING UP
IN THE LAP ANALYSIS. WINDS HAVE ADJUSTED NE AND THIS DIRECTION WILL
CONTINUE TILL 00Z WHEN WINDS VEER E/LY AND BECOME LOW END GUSTY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING P/GRAD. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL AROUND 02Z AND CONTINUOUS LIGHT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD....BRINGING A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO
MVFR.

ELSEWHERE...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE NE WINDS OUTSIDE THE MTNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW END GUSTS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z WITH
PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AGEO ADJ DUE TO THE INCOMING LLVL
MOISTURE AND PRECIP. KAVL...WILL SEE WINDS MAINTAINED OUT OF THE SE
FUNNELING DOWN THE FRENCH BROAD. KAND WILL SEE CIGS DROP TO MVFR ARD
00Z...POSSIBLY IFR BEFORE 06Z. ALL SITES WILL THEN GO TO MVFR CIGS
AND -RA AS THE PRECIP SHIED WORKS OVER THE WEDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY...WITH MORE MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH SNOW SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   75%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  89%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   78%     HIGH  91%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ELEV ABOVE 3500 FEET FROM MIDNIGHT
     TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-053-056-057-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-252030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
330 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH
AND ONE HALF. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-252030-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
330 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN INCH
AND ONE HALF. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS
AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION...A FEW AREAS OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07