Wind Advisory 13, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

757 
WWUS75 KFGZ 300157
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
657 PM MST TUE OCT 29 2013

AZZ011-013-014-016-017-040-300300-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-131030T0200Z/
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...WINSLOW...
HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...SHOW LOW...
DILKON
657 PM MST TUE OCT 29 2013

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
WIND ADVISORY IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG I-40 NORTHWARD...GUSTY WINDS...AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 6000
AND 6500 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE UTAH BORDER. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THE 900 AM TEMPERATURES WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE FORM
WEST OF PAYSON TO THE FOUR CORNERS...THE READINGS WERE ABOUT THE
SAME AS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE 5H TEMPERATURE DROPS TO AROUND -29C
AT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND
THAT COULD HELP TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /358 AM MST/...SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING PRIMARILY
NORTHWEST OF A KGCN TO KCEZ LINE. THE COLD FRONT AS OF 10Z EXTENDS
FROM JUST EAST OF MOAB KCNY TO PAGE KPGA TO GRAND CANYON KGCN TO
BLYTHE KBLH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EAST OF WINSLOW
THROUGH SAINT JOHNS TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. WINDS MAY TOUCH THE 45
MPH RANGE FROM KSOW TO KSJN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THE SHORT
DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND BECAUSE THE WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY FOR
ZONE 13 AND 14.

SHOWERS HAVE DECREASE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN 2 AM MST TO 4 AM MST THAT
IS WHY WE DECIDED TO REDO THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY AND LOWER
CHC'S OF PRECIP TO WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40. SNOW LEVELS FROM I-40 NORTH ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO
THE 5500 TO 6500 FOOT RANGE AND 6500 TO 8000 FOOT RANGE SOUTH OF
I-40. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY AND COLDER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SWING
THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE THOUGH
THE WEST BRINGING SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL AND LIGHT WINDS.

LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN STATES PRODUCING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A
PAYSON-KAYENTA LINE AT 18Z WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT WINDS SW 20-35
KTS...BEHIND THE FRONT SW 10-20 KTS.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF A LINE FROM
VALLE TO WINDOW ROCK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED SOUTHWARD.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 6000-7000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY ANY
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 KFT AGL. WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........MAS/TC
AVIATION.......DM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
247 PM MST MON OCT 28 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-290700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
247 PM MST MON OCT 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST REGION WILL BRING
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 40 TO
55 MPH. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
ARIZONA.

EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST COCONINO COUNTY THIS EVENING...THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES ARIZONA. ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ANY LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA ABOVE 7500 FEET
ELEVATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

GO TO WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.