Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Kansas City, MO

671 
WGUS73 KEAX 290009
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOC005-087-147-290500-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130529T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-
709 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ATCHISON...
NODAWAY AND NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR 
ESTIMATES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A HALF TO TWO AND A HALF 
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN NODAWAY COUNTY. 
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MARYVILLE...BURLINGTON JUNCTION...HOPKINS...MAITLAND...RAVENWOOD AND
SKIDMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9503 4057 9464 4018 9467 4013 9516
      4058 9524 4058 9514 4058 9511

$$

MELL

253 
WGUS73 KEAX 290444
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOC005-087-147-290459-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130529T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOLT MO-NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-
1144 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ATCHISON...
NODAWAY AND NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF FLOODING WAS OBSERVED PLEASE RELAY YOUR REPORT TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9503 4057 9464 4018 9467 4013 9516
      4058 9524 4058 9514 4058 9511

$$

MELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

Tonight...A moderately unstable airmass in addition to moderate
effective bulk shear will provide an environment favorable for strong
to severe weather this afternoon through early tonight.
Thunderstorms have developed primarily in two areas. Area #1 is
within the warm sector driven by an approaching shortwave trough.
Area #2 is along the synoptic stationary front and remnant outflow
boundary. Currently, the environment is slightly more conducive to
severe weather north of Interstate 70. Anticipate additional storms
to develop across the CWA and over eastern Kansas during the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. A tornado watch remains in
effect until 10pm CDT. Additionally, any persistent moderate to heavy
rainfall may further aggravate ongoing flooding. Multiple rivers are
currently in or forecast in flood, and with saturated grounds, the
potential for flash flooding is also possible.

Wednesday...A negatively-tilted upper trough ejects into the Plains
on Wednesday, with much of the flow becoming meridional. At the
surface, a dryline will be located over western Kansas, acting as a
primary mechanism for convective initiation. Much of this activity
will remain west of the CWA throughout the day, resulting in many
areas remaining dry. Strong upper forcing will lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms over western and central Kansas. The overall
convective evolution remains uncertain, and likewise specific
details to timing and intensity are not well resolved at this time.
What activity that does develop out west will work its way eastward
overnight into portions of the CWA, maintained in part by a strong
50-60kt nocturnal LLJ. Assuming the environment remains sufficiently
unstable as operational models suggest, isolated strong/severe
weather will be possible over eastern Kansas and western Missouri
overnight, with strong straight-line winds the primary hazard.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

Thursday through Tuesday...Forecast uncertainty increases by
Thursday into Saturday as the overall evolution of the upper trough
is handled differently among operational guidance. The locations of
the dryline/cold front make gradual progression eastward during the
end of the work week. Therefore forecast on Thursday follows the
most probable scenario for convection to initially develop near or
just outside of the CWA in closer proximity to the surface foci and
gradually move towards the area during the evening/overnight.
Probabilities for convection will increase Friday as the cold front
nears the region. Moderate shear and sufficient instability,
assuming the boundary layer can recover from any nocturnal
convection, still look to be juxtaposed ahead of the cold front,
suggesting the possibility of organized storm modes and subsequent
strong/severe weather threat. The cold front pushes through the CWA
on late Saturday or early Sunday, with dry weather expected Sunday
into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the Missouri Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MVFR stratus with bases above 2,000 ft will continue to spread
northeast across the region this afternoon, before lifting above
3,000 ft later this afternoon. A thunderstorms is currently tracking
toward the MCI/MKC TAF sites and will likely impact these areas
between 18z-20z, then scattered convection will spread across the
region after 21z. Most precipitation should lift north of the region
between 02-05z, leaving behind low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR KSZ025-102.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-031>033-039-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...Laflin/Blair
LONG TERM...Blair
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
240 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
240 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STATIONARY FRONT...COUPLED WITH SEVERAL REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONG WIND SHEAR
WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...ALONG WITH STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE
AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY REPEATEDLY
TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH A
NEAR STATIONARY FRONT. SEVERAL PERIODS OF STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE A PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD WHICH MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM.

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOZ037-038-043-044-281945-
CASS MO-JACKSON MO-JOHNSON MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN CASS
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF PECULIAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PLEASANT HILL...ODESSA...LONE JACK...STRASBURG...PITTSVILLE...LAKE
  LAFAYETTE AND FAYETTEVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT

 I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 44.

HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3910 9390 3883 9369 3871 9438 3877 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 242DEG 40KT 3876 9433

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HAIL             PECULIAR                38.72N 94.46W
05/28/2013  E0.88 INCH       CASS               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
445 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             2 N ROCKPORT            40.45N 95.52W
05/28/2013  E1.75 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RELAYED TO DISPATCH

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
529 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 W ROCKPORT            40.42N 95.55W
05/28/2013  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RELAYED FROM NODAWAY COUNTY 911.

&&

BAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
545 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             WESTBORO                40.54N 95.32W
05/28/2013  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

MOZ002-282330-
NODAWAY MO-
602 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NODAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON JUNCTION...OR 14
MILES EAST OF TARKIO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HOPKINS...CLEARMONT AND PICKERING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4057 9472 4047 9469 4040 9518 4048 9518
      4048 9520 4058 9520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 257DEG 21KT 4051 9509

CDB