Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Dodge City, KS

731 
WWUS83 KDDC 300059
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
759 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

KSZ064-078-087-088-300200-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-130430T0100Z/
HODGEMAN-FORD-MEADE-CLARK-
759 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

$$

GERARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. MEANWHILE, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES,
LEE TROUGHING LOCATED ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WILL INTENSIFY ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TOMORROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES. ERGO, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A DRY LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. RH'S IN THE TEENS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING
FIRE DANGER. LUCKILY, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SLOWED DOWN THE SPEED OF
THIS FRONT AND HAVE PLACED THIS FRONT ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND
00Z. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
50S, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AROUND THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB AT THIS TIME SO
STORMS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING. I HAVE ONLY PLACED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO DIP INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. HIGHS TOMORROW
LOOK TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS HAVE IT BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW AND HAVE IT WOBBLING SLOWLY EAST FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THURSDAY THEN DIFFER ON THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AFTER THAT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED WITH SOME
HAIL POSSIBLE. SOME WET SNOW MAY STICK ON GRASSY AREAS WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
TRICKY WITH THE NAM MODEL MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOL DOWN
THAN OTHERS. WILL TREND WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 60S WHILE THE AREAS WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 40S. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND FROM 35 TO
45 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
SLOWLY WARMING FROM AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY, TO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO WARM TO AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 40 BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS A STALLED OUT FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS HYS AND GCK TERMINALS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE DDC TERMINAL. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AS LEE
TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  88  45  47 /  10  10  50  50
GCK  51  86  40  44 /   0  10  40  50
EHA  49  91  43  46 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  55  91  45  47 /  10  10  30  40
HYS  53  82  43  47 /  10  20  60  60
P28  58  89  57  65 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-302030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
324 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013 /224 PM MDT MON APR 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY EVENING ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN THE SIZE OF A HALF
DOLLAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF A WAKEENEY TO
LARNED LINE.

A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...ANY SLEET OR WET SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS ONLY AND LIGHT IN NATURE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

42