Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Dodge City, KS

183 
WWUS83 KDDC 250100
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
800 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...


KSZ061-062-074-250200-
/O.CAN.KDDC.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130625T0200Z/
HAMILTON-KEARNY-STANTON-
800 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 /700 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...


$$
BURGERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON JUN
24 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA JUST
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY THIS MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH JET AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT.
LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TODAY TO
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NAM MODEL HAS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS, SO WILL JUST CARRY A SMALL POP TO COVER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME GOOD INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WARM CAP,
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MAX HEATING, ALTHOUGH
THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE INHIBITIVE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT, ALTHOUGH A FEW PULSE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WILL
GO AHEAD WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OUR FORECAST AREA COUNTIES
EXPECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN 3 OF HAMILTON, STANTON, AND MORTON. THESE
COUNTIES MAY BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AXIS.

HIGHS TODAY MAY BE LIMITED A FEW DEGREES FROM EXTENSIVE CLOUDS BUT
WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD HIT THE UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE AGAIN MILD WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 24 MPH AND RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60 FAR WEST TOWARD THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 70 NEAR
SAINT JOHN TO MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EDGES EAST INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, KEEPING A WEAK FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AS A PREVAILING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 30C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(C) IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 100F TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS FOR WINDS, A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO TODAY. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE UP TO AROUND 25 TO 35KT
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 25KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  72 101  69 /  20  20   0   0
GCK  97  71 101  66 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  98  69 101  66 /  10  20   0   0
LBL  97  72 102  68 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  98  73 101  70 /  10  20   0   0
P28  97  74 100  75 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
324 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 /224 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06