Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

182 
WGUS71 KBOX 030941
FFSBOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
541 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

MAC005-030950-
/O.EXP.KBOX.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130603T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRISTOL MA-
541 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRISTOL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 AM EDT...

THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER 
EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT.

LAT...LON 4167 7118 4176 7111 4168 7088 4166 7090
      4164 7091 4165 7092 4164 7092 4160 7095

LAT...LON 4167 7118 4176 7111 4168 7088 4166 7090
      4164 7091 4165 7092 4164 7092 4160 7095

$$

MD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
339 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREATODAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE COLD FRONT
DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY BRING MORE HEAVY
SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

BROAD AREA OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED
IN SITU OVER THE SRN WATERS AND ARE STREAMING OVER S AND E
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF
A FAIRLY ROBUST 40 KT LLJ AND STRONG FRONTAL WAVE MOVING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE HAS BEEN LIGHTNING
BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN P WAT VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 2.O INCHES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR PARTICULARLY TROUBLING SPOTS THIS MORNING AS THIS
CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH.

OTHERWISE...ALSO GETTING SOME MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT ITSELF IN E NY AND WRN MA...IT HAS BEEN RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NE GIVEN ALL THE INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED BUT
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WELL. THROUGH THE
MORNING.

THIS JET WILL NOT MOVE TO MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY AND NEITHER
WILL THE UPPER LVL INSTABILITY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
STRONG WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER
KICKER WAVE FOR THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A VERY WET
DAY PARTICULARLY S AND E OF A LINE FROM HARTFORD-WORCESTER-
MANCHESTER AS THIS IS WHERE ALL THREE OF THESE FACTORS CONVERGE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN
DENSE URBAN AREAS WHERE POOR DRAINAGE IS AN ISSUE...IS THERE. SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS
TO BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM...BUT TRAINING ECHOS HAVE BEEN SEEN
ALREADY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME LOCALIZED ISSUES ARE
DEFINITELY A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE KICKER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE WITH TIME ALLOWING FOR BOTH AN
END TO PRECIP AND CLEARING SKIES. LOW-MID LVL COLD ADVECTION IS
ROBUST SO EXPECTING A VERY QUICK COOLING AND DRYING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING MINS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT.  WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.  NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES INTO A SHORTWAVE AND DIGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY-FRIDAY.  THIS SNAGS A LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PULLS IT NORTH UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY-SATURDAY.  GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

MODEL PREFERENCES... UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER IN MOVING
SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS DEEPER/MORE INTENSE THIS WEEKEND
WITH GULF LOW MOVING UP THE COAST.  PREFER A GFS/ECMWF BLEND MOST OF
THE PERIOD.  LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND HPC GRIDS THIS WEEKEND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD WITH HINTS OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RH CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LAYER OF 60-70 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MASS. THE ECMWF EXTENDS THIS RH FIELD
FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS...EXCEEDING
50 PCT COVER FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN
AREAS.  MODEL GRID FIELDS DO NOT PICK UP ON THIS...WILL ADD THIS
AREA BY HAND.  ANY CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE 6-8C...SO MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED IN THE 70S.  WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER.  INCREASING CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE AT MID AND HIGH
LEVELS...SO EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  FAIR SKIES.  SEA BREEZES DEVELOP WEDNESDAY UNDER LIGHT
FLOW.  AS THE SURFACE HIGHS MOVES OFFSHORE THE OVERALL FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.  DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LIGHT WIND
WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE DRAWS WARM
MOIST AIR NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE COOLER SURFACE AIR. THIS
WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
MORE CONFIDENTLY FOR FRIDAY. MAIN QUESTION CONCERNS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE COAST THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BY FRIDAY-SATURDAY TO
AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 2 INCHES. SO ANY SHOWERS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A POTENTIAL
FLOODING RISK FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SHOWERS ENDING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BAND OF RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NE FROM THE NY METRO AND WATERS S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THIS
BAND TO SET UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS E OF A LINE FROM BDL-
ORH-MHT. WITH THIS RAINFALL EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
W OF THE LINE...VFR MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN DOMINANT EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONAL -SHRA.

THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR/VFR TO FULL VFR BY THE LATE
EVENING TONIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH 20-30 KT AT TIMES
IN ANY EMBEDDED T-STORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN OVERALL TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS A BAND OF RAIN MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE DAY. MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

EXPECTING THE GUST WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS TO REMAIN OVER THE E AND
S WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THEN CROSSES FROM THE WEST BY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS SAVE FOR
STELLWAGEN BANK REGION...BOSTON HARBOR...OR NARRAGANSETT BAY

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...DIMINISHING SEAS BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE
NEEDED ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. A
STEADY SOUTH WIND WILL BRING BUILDING SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HEIGHTS MAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>234-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-040815-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
404 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS COULD
CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-040815-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
404 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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