Tornado Warning 25, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

235 
WWUS55 KBOU 182013
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
213 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

COC001-005-182030-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130618T2030Z/
ADAMS CO-ARAPAHOE CO-
213 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MDT FOR SOUTHERN
ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES...
    
AT 212 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AURORA...OR 16 MILES EAST OF DENVER...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...SPORADIC DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AURORA...MANILA VILLAGE AND WATKINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A
VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 10473 3980 10472 3980 10449 3964 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 254DEG 12KT 3973 10465 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

RPK

251 
WWUS55 KBOU 182029
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

COC001-005-182038-
/O.EXP.KBOU.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-130618T2030Z/
ADAMS CO-ARAPAHOE CO-
229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3964 10473 3980 10472 3980 10449 3964 10450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 254DEG 12KT 3973 10465 

$$

RPK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1157 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF UTAH IS HELPING TO FIRE
EARLY THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS. 12Z DENVER SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BUT GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD THIS MORNING THOUGH
NOW LEVELING OFF NEAR 0.6 INCHES WHICH IS DOWN A BIT FROM THE
SOUNDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN SOME ON THE PLAINS
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S GENERALLY. SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PRODUCED
A MODEST DENVER CYCLONE WITH THE CONVERGENCE LINE NEAR DIA. NO
RECENT HRRR RUN BUT EARLIER RUNS SHOWED THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAT WE ARE SEEING NOW. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH HI
RESOLUTION NCEP MODEL RUNS. STILL EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY TO BE GENERALLY EAST OF DIA TO GREELEY AND POSSIBLY
FAVORING MORE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE PLAINS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I70
WHERE MOISTURE LOOKS DEEPER. ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AND ADDED ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE HWO. WITH THE
DENVER CYCLONE CANNOT ELIMINATE SAME THREAT NEAR DIA ALTHOUGH AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER THREAT END.

&&

.AVIATION...MOVED CHANCE OF STORMS UP A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON
ITEMS NOTED ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT TRICKY BUT AFTER
COORIDNATION WITH CWSU WE SETTLED ON DCVZ BOUNDARY SLIPPING BY
AIRPORT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
DENVER WITH STORMS FARTHER EAST POSSIBLY PRODUCING MORE DECENT
RAINS. RIGHT NOW ANY FOOTHILLS STORMS NOT LIKELY TO BE WORRISOME
FOR BURN AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE WEAK RIDGE THAT'S BEEN OVER
COLORADO EAST. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER UTAH. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HELPING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 0.10 TO
0.25 INCHES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READIES RANGING FROM 0.60 TO
1.00 INCHES EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN
ADDITION TO THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF LINE
FROM GREELEY TO DIA WHERE CAPES WILL BE 1000-2000 J/KG. STILL ENOUGH
SHEAR IN PLACE FOR A FEW SUPER CELL THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND ALONG THE URBAN FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR...CAPES WILL BE 500-1000
J/KG. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SAME BALL PARK AS YESTERDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING CONVECTION TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TONIGHT WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER COLORADO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EAST
OF COLORADO. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN
ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ADHERE TO NORMAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...NORMAL PATTERNS RETURN. THE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MINIMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT PROGGS SHOW ALL BUT THE FAR EAST OF THE
CWA IN PRETTY DRY READINGS...MOSTLY UNDER 40S F ALL FOUR PERIODS.
THERE ARE SOME 40S TO LOWER 50S F READINGS OVER THE BORDER AREAS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASE AFTER THAT.
THE ONLY CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER AREA LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. VALUES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT. THERE
IS ONLY A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROGGED ON THE QPF FIELDS OF
THE ECMWF ONLY LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LATE DAY THURSDAY. WILL GO
WITH NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ARE ARE 3-6 C
WARMER THAN TODAY'S. THURSDAY'S HIGHS COOL OFF A TAD...1-2 C FROM
WEDNESDAY'S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE FLOW
ALOFT STAYS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE IS MINIMAL MOISTURE...AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AVIATION...THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR
NORTHERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING
IT TO THE DENVER AREA...WILL MENTION A FEW AT 2000 FEET IN THE TAFS
FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MAKING IT INTO THE DENVER AREA. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 17Z WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. HEAVY
RAIN...HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL END AROUND 02Z.

HYDROLOGY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SCARS. THERE MAY BE SHORT LIVED HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1050 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

COZ030>051-191700-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1050 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR GREELEY TO DIA WHERE SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
THAT COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE EAST. FARTHER
WEST...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE HAS ALREADY FORMED AND THIS SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE RUNNING SOUTH TO
NORTH NEAR DIA. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY STORMS COULD BECOME LOCALLY
MORE INTENSE WITH A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE FOOTHILLS BY LATE MORNING AND THEN ON THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL HELP INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AFTER
2 PM.