Wind Advisory 3, NWS Birmingham, AL

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
700 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS FORECAST AND
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED.
MID LEVEL FORCING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED AND A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

HAVE INCLUDED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING AN UNUSUALLY DEEP LAYER OF
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO NEAR 650 MB AND ENHANCED
MOISTURE IN THE 650 TO 800 MB LAYER. HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
VALUES BENEATH THE MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR
VIRGA BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
COULD REACH THE GROUND. CONDITIONS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND LIGHT
WINDS PROMOTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE FAST FORWARD
MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR THE ADEQUATE WARMTH AND
MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG TROUGH
WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT A GLANCE THIS SYSTEM HAS THE LOOK OF
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER
POOR. EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
HIGH QUALITY GULF MOISTURE AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE A TIME FRAME WHERE LITTLE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT...BUT THEY WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY. A SNOW FLURRY IS
EVEN POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH. THE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR
ARE MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     41  20  49  27  59 /  10   0   0   0  10
ANNISTON    42  22  49  29  60 /  10   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  43  24  51  34  62 /  10   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  45  25  54  33  63 /  10   0   0   0  20
CALERA      43  25  51  33  62 /  10   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      45  25  49  33  60 /  20   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  47  26  54  32  64 /  10   0   0   0  10
TROY        47  24  52  30  63 /  30   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

87/56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
650 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2013

ALZ011>015-017>050-171300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
650 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
TOMBIGBEE...LOWER BLACK WARRIOR...LOWER CAHABA AND TALLAPOOSA
RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER STATEMENTS FOR FORECAST STAGE
INFORMATION.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER TOMBIGBEE...LOWER BLACK WARRIOR...LOWER CAHABA AND TALLAPOOSA
RIVERS WITH IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.