Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2013

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

February 6, 20139 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Feb 6, 2013, 4:21 PM EST for 9 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Feb 7, 2013, 12:00 PM EST. It was in force for 22 hr. 17 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 6, 2013, 4:21 PM EST (21:21 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 7, 2013, 12:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 8, 2013, 9:41 AM EST
In force
22 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Alcona County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 8, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.62 Ne Prudenville, MIREPORTED AT COOP STATION HTLM4 SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS
Feb 8, 5:04 AM ESTHEAVY SNOW 103 Se Omer, MI16HR TOTAL.
Feb 8, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 65 Ne Mio, MI14 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.
Feb 8, 6:30 AM ESTSNOW 5.511 N Lake City, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 630 AM. SNOWDEPTH 13 IN.
Feb 8, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.9Houghton Lake, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 14 IN.
Feb 8, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 62 Ne Luzerne, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 8 IN.
Feb 8, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 6.71 Wsw East Tawas, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 9 IN.
Feb 8, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 7.25 Ssw Lake City, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.
Feb 8, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 8Gladwin, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 9 IN.
Feb 8, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 3.82 Sw Glennie, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 730 AM. SNOWDEPTH 7 IN.
Feb 8, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 5.92 Nw Houghton Lake, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 730 AM. SNOWDEPTH 10 IN.
Feb 8, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 4Higgins Lake, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM. SNOWDEPTH 9 IN.
Feb 8, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 72 Se Lake City, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH 12 IN.
Feb 8, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 7.43 Se West Branch, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH 11 IN.
Feb 8, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 8Oscoda, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM. SNOWDEPTH 10 IN.
Feb 8, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 10Gladwin, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM.
Feb 8, 8:30 AM ESTSNOW 4.8Mio, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 830 AM. SNOWDEPTH 9 IN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2013-02-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2013-02-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 73 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
678 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
88 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

190 
WWUS43 KAPX 062121
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...HEAVY SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND ADVANCE
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY...AN AREA OF
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. RIGHT NOW...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISVILLE BACK
THROUGH CADILLAC WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
GLADWIN...ARENAC AND IOSCO COUNTIES.

MIZ030-032>036-041-042-070500-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0003.130207T0500Z-130208T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALCONA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
421 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY. 


HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...COMBINED TOTAL
   FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

 * LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A
   PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
   THURSDAY NIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ025>029-031-070500-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0003.130207T0500Z-130208T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...
GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE
421 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY
TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...COMBINED TOTAL
   FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

 * LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A PERIOD OF
   HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
   NIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ024-070500-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALPENA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ALPENA
421 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...COMBINED TOTAL
   FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

 * LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A PERIOD OF
   HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
   NIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

ADAM
9 follow-up statements
650 
WWUS43 KAPX 062124
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
424 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...HEAVY SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND ADVANCE
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY...AN AREA OF
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. RIGHT NOW...HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISVILLE BACK
THROUGH CADILLAC WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS GLADWIN...
ARENAC AND IOSCO COUNTIES.

MIZ030-032>036-041-042-070500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALCONA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
424 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...COMBINED TOTAL 
   FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

 * LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A 
   PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
   THURSDAY NIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ024>029-031-070500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE
424 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY
TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...COMBINED TOTAL 
   FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

 * LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A PERIOD OF 
   HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY 
   NIGHT. 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

ADAM
629 
WWUS43 KAPX 070303
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1003 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...HEAVY SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND ADVANCE
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY...AN AREA OF
LIGHTER SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
M-55 CORRIDOR.

MIZ030-032>036-041-042-071115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALCONA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...
HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1003 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
   NIGHT.

 * LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A
   PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
   THURSDAY NIGHT.

 * PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ024>029-031-071115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...MANISTEE
1003 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY
TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
   NIGHT.

 * LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT A PERIOD OF 
   HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY 
   NIGHT. 

 * PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$
739 
WWUS43 KAPX 070954
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
454 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

MIZ029-071700-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
OSCODA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MIO
454 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY. 

 * PERIODS OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO
   A MORE INTENSE AND STEADY SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE
   EXPECTED... WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT. STORM
   TOTAL SNOWFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING OF UP TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ032>034-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
454 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY. 

 * PERIODS OF SNOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STEADIER AND MORE
   INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   NIGHT.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
   EXPECTED... WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT BEFORE
   SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL BY
   FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK.

$$

MIZ030-035-036-041-042-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
454 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM
EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * PERIODS OF SNOW AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL
   BECOME MORE INTENSE AND STEADY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
   THROUGH TONIGHT.

 * SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
   INCHES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 9 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
   THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES. STORM
   TOTAL SNOWFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6
   INCHES TO LOCALLY MORE THAN ONE FOOT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ024>028-031-071700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE
454 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

 * OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
   WAY TO STEADY SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
   CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE
   EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW IS 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

JPB
692 
WWUS43 KAPX 071524
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1024 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...HEAVY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND LEAD TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL AND GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ALPENA TO CADILLAC.


MIZ032>034-072330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
1024 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY.

 * LIGHTER SNOW AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION TO
   STEADIER AND MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL AS WE GO THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

 * ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES TONIGHT BEFORE
   SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL BY
   FRIDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

$$

MIZ029-030-035-036-041-042-072330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.130207T1700Z-130208T1100Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1024 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

 * LIGHTER SNOW AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION TO
   STEADIER AND MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL AS WE GO THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

 * ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT. STORM
   TOTAL SNOWFALL BY FRIDAY MORNING OF UP TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND 
   TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>023-072330-
/O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1524Z-130208T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA
1024 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY.

 * FREEZING DRIZZLE PRODUCING LIGHT ICING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO STEADIER SNOWFALL LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING
   AND ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF FREEZING
   DRIZZLE AND HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ024>028-031-072330-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.130207T1524Z-130208T1100Z/
ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE
1024 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

 * FREEZING DRIZZLE PRODUCING LIGHT ICING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
   MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO STEADIER SNOWFALL LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER SNOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
   BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY FRIDAY
   MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF FREEZING
   DRIZZLE AND HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK
   TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$
343 
WWUS43 KAPX 072110
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
410 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WIDESPREAD SNOW...LOW VISIBILITIES AND SLICK ROADS TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN-UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ALPENA TO CADILLAC.

MIZ032>034-080500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
410 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY.

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY
   MORNING.

 * AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL
   RESULT IN STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

$$

MIZ029-030-035-036-041-042-080500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
410 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY
   MORNING.

 * ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS
   WILL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
   INCHES. 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ024>028-031-080500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE
410 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY
   MORNING. 

 * 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>023-080500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA
410 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY
   MORNING. 

 * 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

ADAM
834 
WWUS43 KAPX 080307
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1007 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WIDESPREAD SNOW...LOW VISIBILITIES AND SLICK ROADS TONIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN-UP OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ADVANCE
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM ALPENA TO CADILLAC.

MIZ032>034-081100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE
1007 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
6 AM EST FRIDAY.

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY 
   MORNING. 

 * AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TONIGHT. THIS WILL 
   RESULT IN STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES. 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

$$

MIZ029-030-035-036-041-042-081100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...WEST BRANCH...
TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1007 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY. 

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY 
   MORNING. 

 * ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT. THIS 
   WILL RESULT IN STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 
   INCHES. 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ024>028-031-081100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALPENA...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE
1007 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY 
   MORNING. 

 * 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>023-081100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA
1007 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

 * WIDESPREAD SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY FRIDAY 
   MORNING. 

 * 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS.

 * VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$
539 
WWUS43 KAPX 080855
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PULL EAST AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO COME TO AN END. ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK HOWEVER...DUE TO OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL.  

MIZ016>022-025-026-031-081000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130208T1100Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...
TRAVERSE CITY...MANISTEE
355 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SLICK TRAVEL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DUE
TO RECENT SNOWFALL.  

$$

MIZ029-030-032>036-041-042-081500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1500Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...CADILLAC...
LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...
STANDISH
355 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

 * SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.   

 * ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED...
   BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 5 TO 10 INCHES.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS...ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

MIZ023-024-027-028-081500-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130208T1500Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
355 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

 * SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  

 * UP TO ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...
   BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 3 TO 6 INCHES.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS...ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS HEAVIER SNOW WILL RESULT IN 
   SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$

ARNOTT
024 
WWUS43 KAPX 081140
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
640 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PULL
EAST AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO COME TO AN END. ROADS WILL
REMAIN SLICK HOWEVER...DUE TO OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL.

MIZ032-033-081245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1500Z/
WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
640 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

MIZ023-024-027-028-081245-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-130208T1500Z/
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATLANTA...ALPENA...KALKASKA...GRAYLING
640 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

$$

MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042-081500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1500Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
640 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

 * SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

 * ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF LESS THAN TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED... 
   BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 5 TO 10 INCHES. 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS...ALONG WITH REDUCED 
   VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

 * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 
   8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. 

&&

$$
336 
WWUS43 KAPX 081441
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
941 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013


MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042-081545-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130208T1500Z/
OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
941 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 6, 12:37 PM EST, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 12:37 PM EST, 3 hours 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1237 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING AN END TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING ON NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN TEXAS WILL
LINK UP WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SO THAT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DROP SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SITTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO
SUNSHINE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. STILL
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IMPACTING A PART OF
NW LOWER MICHIGAN. LAST BIT OF LAKE SNOWS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING
TOWARD THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TOWARD SOUTHWEST.

REST OF TODAY...RELATIVE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM IF YOU WILL. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL SHIFT UP INTO THE STRAITS/MACKINAC
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IF ANY.
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT WE GET SOME
CU/STCU TO FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DAYTIME "HEATING."

LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL PLACEMENT.
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO THE
CWA THROUGH THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. INITIALLY...SNOWFALL WILL BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BEST SNOWFALL LOOKING
TO OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TIGHTENS AND ROLLS UP THROUGH SE LOWER
MICHIGAN PLACING THE BEST F-GEN RESPONSE UP THROUGH THE S/SE PART
OF THIS CWA INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE TWEAKED FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS JUST A BIT AND HAVE A THREE PERIOD COMBINED
SNOWFALL TOTAL (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
FROM HARRISVILLE TO CADILLAC AND AREAS SOUTH...GREATEST ACROSS
GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES AND AGAIN WITH THE HEAVIEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. NO HEADLINE DECISIONS
YET...BUT SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE A WARNING ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES
WITH THE REST OF THE WATCH COUNTIES GOING INTO ADVISORIES. BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE REST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TO SAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

UPPER LEVEL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC STARTING TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT
ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. EARLY THIS MORNING...UNDERCUTTING
ARCTIC JET BRANCH ROTATING BENEATH A POLAR VORTEX OVER JAMES BAY.
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT RISES SPREAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST.  MIDNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006MB LOW ALONG
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
INDIANA AND ILLINOIS.  1020MB HIGH WAS PARKED OVER THE MID/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOW BANDS COMING IN OFF
ALL THREE LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
SURFACE LOW...WITH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF MANITOBA/NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/HEIGHT RISES WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER LAKES TODAY
AS JET AXIS CROSSES MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO A POSITION PUTTING MICHIGAN IN THE JET ENTRANCE REGION
TONIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
REGION TODAY...AND GIVE WAY TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETS
UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL
WITH NUISANCE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT TODAY...THEN SNOW EVOLUTION
TONIGHT WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN.

AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WEAKEN...EXPECT ORGANIZATION OF CURRENT LAKE SNOW
BANDS TO WEAKEN AS WELL (LOSS OF LAKE SUPERIOR EFFECTIVE FETCH WILL
HELP).  CAN SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WHITEFISH BAY
VICINITY MUCH OF THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF THAT...WARM ADVECTION AC/AS
DECK ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL INVADE
THE UPPER PENINSULA AND TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH MORE CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.  DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
FROM THE TEENS-LOWER 20S EASTERN UPPER...WITH MAINLY 20S ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER.

AS WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW
INCREASES...DEEP LAYER SATURATION EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THIS WILL GET SNOWFALL GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER (WHERE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY MAY BE IMPACTED BY DOWNWARD
BRANCH OF A LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION) ...AND
0.10-0.25 INCH FOR NORTHERN LOWER (HIGHEST WEST OF AN ACB-HTL LINE
CLOSER TO FRONTOGENETIC UPWARD FORCING).  SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AT
FIRST GLANCE SHOULD VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DUE TO ORIENTATION OF
THERMAL GRADIENT/WARM ADVECTION...BUT BETTER FORCING AT FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH.  SO POSSIBLE
THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE UNIFORM AND WILL GO A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY (WHICH IS AROUND 14:1).  HAVING THIS IN
MIND...WILL GO WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND 2-3/2-4 INCHES ELSEWHERE (3-4 INCHES ALONG/WEST
OF M-37 CORRIDOR).  AS THIS WILL DOVETAIL INTO THE LONGER TERM
FORECAST...WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED SPANNING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY (MORE DETAILS BELOW).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WISCONSIN BY 00Z
WITH THE SFC HIGH NE OF THE REGION AND THE SFC TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING
UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN, AND IS ALSO COUPLED WITH THE RRQ OF THE 500 MB JET
STREAK, THE CORE OF WHICH 80-100 KNOTS IN QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM ALSO
IS TAPPING THE GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS
FOR THE 850 MB LEVEL AND THE 700-500 MB LAYER LAYING OUT OVER C
LOWER. THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION, WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE DYNAMIC LIFT GOING, AIDING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH ALL
THESE FACTORS, IT LOOKS LIKE MODERATE SNOW SOUTH OF M-72, TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY AMOUNTS NEAR M-55, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTH OF M-72 AND MINOR AMOUNTS IN E UPPER. SO BASED ON THAT WE WILL
HAVE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-72. WILL START IT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW WILL START WITH THE
ISENTROPIC AND DYNAMIC LIFT AS DISCUSSED EARLIER.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FOR THE EVENING, THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOW IN THE SE
COUNTIES, SO BASICALLY EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF M-72. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE BORDERLINE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (AROUND -11C OR
-10C) AND WITH THE NORTH CHANNEL AND THE A GOOD PORTION OF GEORGIAN
BAY FROZEN, THE FETCHES ACROSS LAKE HURON IN NE LOWER WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET SIGNIFICANT BANDS, BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A
LITTLE ENHANCEMENT, TRIED TO UP SOME OF THE AMOUNTS ALONG THE LAKE
HURON SHORE. SO WILL STRETCH THE WATCH OUT TO MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THINGS BEGIN TO QUICKLY DRY OUT AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF LAKE HURON. THIS TAKES THE 700-500 MB LAYER
MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW
-10C BY 12Z AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY WITH NE WINDS IN NW LOWER,
AND MAYBE NNE. THIS COULD BRING SOME LAKE SNOW TO NW LOWER. ADDED
SOME MINOR AMOUNTS THERE OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC, AND THE 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
BUILDING. MOISTURE AT 850 MB IS LESS THAN 10% AND THE 700-500 MB
LAYER RH IS LESS THAN 40%. SO THE SKY WILL PROBABLY CLEAR, PARTLY
SUNNY AT THE LEAST. OVERNIGHT, WILL BE DRY AS WELL, WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS IN E UPPER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TRIES TO GET SOME MOISTURE OVER
THE 500 MB RIDGE AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS HAS NOW COME ON BOARD WITH THE ECMWF
TRACK THAT IT WAS ADVERTISING FROM THE 04/12Z RUN, AND SUBSEQUENTLY
THE 05/00Z AND 05/12Z. HOWEVER, WITH THE NEW 06/00Z ECMWF, THE SFC
LOWS ARE NOW TOGETHER. SO THE FORECAST WILL GO LIKE THIS...SATURDAY,
THE RETURN FLOW GETS GOING IN THE MORNING AND GOES THROUGH THE DAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND -5C BY 00Z NEAR THE STRAITS, AND
0C NEAR LDM. MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEAR E UPPER BY
00Z. THE DAY LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART, AS THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF
ON ITS QPF WHICH LOOKS MORE OF WHAT I WOULD EXPECT WITH THE PATTERN.
THE MOISTURE STILL LOOKS UNCOORDINATED WITH THE 700-500 MB RH MAX
OVER THE DRY AIR AT 850 MB OR VICE VERSA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. SO
WILL BACK OFF THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY, THE DAY SHOULD
BE DRY AS THE MODELS STILL HAS THE STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SW. WILL
HAVE TO TO STEP THE POPS DOWN MORE AS THE ECMWF HAS HELD STEADY WITH
THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND THE GFS
HAS NOW FOLLOWED SUIT. THE MAIN THRUST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
GFS, DESPITE NOT HAVING THIS FEATURE YESTERDAY, STILL IS ABOUT 100
MILES WEST WITH THE SFC LOW. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THE MIX OF
RAIN WILL GET INTO E UPPER. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF'S
MORE CONSISTENT TRACK. MONDAY, THE MODELS BEGIN TO GET IN LINE AGAIN
WITH THE TRACK TO A CERTAIN EXTENT PUSHING THE SFC LOW INTO QUEBEC
BY 00Z. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT THERE, WHICH IS THE COLDER OF THE TWO
MODELS AT 850 MB, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME N TO NNW FLOW LAKE
EFFECT. GFS IS STILL -8C TO -6C EVEN IN E UPPER, SO NO LAKE EFFECT
IF THIS IS THE CASE. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT, THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT
QUICKLY SO IF THERE IS ANY INSTABILITY, THERE WON'T BE MUCH SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR. LOOKS
LIKE A DRY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ONSET OF SNOW THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW NEAR PLN WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WILL RESULT IN A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST.  COULD SEE SOME LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ON LAKE HURON THURSDAY...AS WELL AS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
MACKINAC OVER TOWARD SEUL CHOIX POINT ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ025>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...BA
SYNOPSIS...JSL
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JPB
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 6, 11:33 AM EST, 4 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1133 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
071100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1133 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL ADVANCE INTO EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SEE ONGOING WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. GREATEST STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISVILLE THROUGH
CADILLAC. SEE ONGOING WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF TWO WAYS:

BY PHONE: 1-800-647-8676 (REPORTS ONLY PLEASE...NO FORECASTS)

BY FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX.

ADAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 6, 4:15 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchAPXAlcona, Arenac, Benzie, Crawford, Gladwin, Grand Traverse and 8 more12 hr
Feb 6, 4:21 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryAPXAlpena, Antrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Crawford, Emmet and 8 more38 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2013Every winter storm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.