Storm Warning 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

962 
FZAK62 PAFC 012343
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 1 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 979 MB COMPLEX LOW NEAR 52N 179W WILL MOVE NEAR 55N 171W AT 976 MB
MON MORNING...THEN TRACK NEAR 60N 164W AT 981 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 25 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 TO 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF 178W...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. E OF 178W...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING
S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W OF 178W...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. E OF
178W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT W OF 177W. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W OF 177W...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT TO 20 FT. E OF
177W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-021500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT W OF 169W. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

207 
FZAK62 PAFC 021156
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A COMPLEX LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MERGES INTO A 976 MB LOW MON
MORNING NEAR 55N 170W. THIS LOW WEAKENS TO 981 MB AND MOVES INLAND
NEAR 60N 165W TUE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MON AFTERNOON. A
SECOND FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING ENTERS THE GULF
TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
TO 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. E OF 175W...VARIABLE
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. E OF 175W...N TO W
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT W WIND 20 KT W OF 167W. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

254 
FZAK62 PAFC 022351
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-031500-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A COMPLEX LOW NEAR 56N 168W AT 979 MB WEAKENS TO 982 MB AND MOVES
INLAND NEAR 60N 165W TUE AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO 63N 167W
LATE TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR POSITION THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUE
MORNING ENTERS THE GULF TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 TO 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF 175W...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. E OF 57W...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT BECOMING
NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF 175W...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. E OF 175W...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO
30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
TO 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.   

$$

PKZ414-031500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 2 2013

.TONIGHT...W OF 167W...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. E OF 167W...S WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 PM AKDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WITH A DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING PROVIDING FOR A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND. IN
THE ZONAL FLOW...THERE ARE PLENTY OF FEATURES TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE
EASTERN BERING INTO THE MAINLAND. A DECENT WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL CURRENTLY CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND RAIN.
THERE IS A GOOD BACK EDGE TO THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS IS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME MID
LEVEL WARMING IS STARTING TO SHUT OFF SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH STRATUS OVER THE BERING FOR CONTINUED CLOUDINESS.
THIS MID LEVEL WARMING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TONIGHT
AND EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT WEST OF
THE CHUGACH. A GOOD VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW IN
THE WESTERN BERING CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. A VERY STRONG JET CORE
IS DIGGING BEHIND THE WESTERN BERING LOW AT 150 KT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MOST MODELS YESTERDAY DID NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON VERY
WELL. AS A RESULT...THE FEATURES ARE SPED UP ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM
YESTERDAYS FORECAST. AS IT STANDS...THE MODELS ARE GETTING CLOSER TO
THE SITUATION. WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN DEFINITELY BECOMING MORE LONG
WAVE/MERIDIONAL...THE CONVERGENCE OF THE MODELS IS BETTER THROUGH
MONDAY. THE ENERGIES ROTATING IN AND OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ARE
DIFFERING BETWEEN MODELS RIGHT NOW. SO...THE EXACT POSITIONING OF
FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT PAST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER
WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM
THE KAMCHATKA AREA IS HANDLED MUCH DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE HEMISPHERIC
MODELS. THEREFORE...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW...THE BEST BET IS A EC SOLUTION
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN ENSEMBLE MEANS VIA WPC FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...
MODERATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS. HELPING WITH THE PRECIPITATION PROCESS
IS THE FACT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE INSTABILITY
WILL WANE BEHIND THE WAVE TONIGHT IN A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND MID LEVEL
WARMING RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS IN CONCERT WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING
CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...A MID
LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH A DEEPER
TAP OF MOISTURE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AT ALL LEVELS.
STRONGER WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE TYPICAL GAPS ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL. A STRONG JET PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ENHANCING THE WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS TO
DEFINITE STRONG WIND HEADLINES. DO NOT EXPECT WIND WARNING CRITERIA
AS OF YET. THE WAVE MOVES TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF OVER
THE REGION TUESDAY EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS EAST OF THE
ANCHORAGE AREA WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AND THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS POINTED.

SOUTHWEST/AKPEN...
A MID LEVEL FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DIRECTLY BEHIND IN A SOMEWHAT STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MID LEVEL WARMING. THE LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING
WRAPS UP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TO THE COAST
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE BERING INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE TAP IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY A MODERATE JET AND GOOD BAROCLINICITY. GALE FORCE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TO HIT THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
BREAKS UP MONDAY AS IT HITS THE COAST AND THE STRONGER JET CORE MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AKPEN INTO THE GULF. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE VENTURING INTO THE GULF MONDAY
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND AT
TIMES MODERATE RAIN INTO TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW IS DEEPENING IN THE WESTERN BERING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
FRONT DEVELOPING. BY LATER TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL
BERING BACK TO THE PARENT LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING. THE TRAILING
COLD/COOL FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING IS WELL SUPPORTED.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL MOVE WITH THIS
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MOVES TO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. STRONG JET IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN FROM EASTERN RUSSIA WILL
ENHANCE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO
STORM FORCE. THE LOW WRAPS UP IN THE EASTERN BERING AND BEGINS TO
FILL AS THE JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE GULF AND REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD OVERALL HANDLE ON A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN BERING REMAINING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
YUKON AND ALBERTA/BC. THE ENERGY FLOWING AROUND THE TROUGH IS
SOMEWHAT AT DEBATE FOR SURFACE FEATURES. OVERALL...MILD AND WET FOR
THE MAINLAND WITH SOME WIND. COOLER AND SHOWERY OVER THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 185 411
         GALE 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 180 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NELSON AUG 13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1155 PM AKDT SAT AUG 31 2013

AKZ181-011500

...MINOR ASH FALL REMAINS POSSIBLE BETWEEN PERRYVILLE AND CHIGNIK...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INSTRUMENTATION NEAR VENIAMINOF VOLCANO
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED LEVELS OF ACTIVITY AT THE VOLCANO.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THE ASH TO THE EAST WHICH COULD
STILL BRING SOME VERY LIGHT ASHFALL TO AREAS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BETWEEN PERRYVILLE AND CHIGNIK THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.