Blizzard Watch 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

695 
WWAK42 PAFC 250125
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST SUN FEB 24 2013

AKZ181-251430-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0013.130225T0900Z-130226T0300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0017.130225T0900Z-130226T0300Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
425 PM AKST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM AKST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM AKST
MONDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES...HEAVIEST ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
  LOCAL GUSTS TO 70 MPH THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH LATE 
  MONDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE 
  LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY 
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-251430-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.130225T0900Z-130226T2000Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
425 PM AKST SUN FEB 24 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM
AKST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM AKST
TUESDAY. 

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL REACH 40 BELOW AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
  THEN MODERATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN DROP
  TO 45 BELOW MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY RISE TUESDAY
  MORNING ENDING THE ADVISORY.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ161-251430-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0013.130225T2100Z-130226T2100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
425 PM AKST SUN FEB 24 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON...

* LOCATION...NORTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON.

* SNOW...3 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH 
  THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
  EVENING MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PEAK 
  MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  MAY PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY 
  DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

882 
WWAK42 PAFC 251406
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 AM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

AKZ181-260300-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0017.000000T0000Z-130226T0300Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
506 AM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* SNOW...UP TO 2 INCHES...HEAVIEST ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...NORTH TO NORTHWEST 25 TO 45 MPH. GUSTS TO 60 MPH THROUGH
  CHANNELED TERRAIN.

* TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
  THEN BECOME SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHERLY
  WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE 
  VERY DIFFICULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ161-260315-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0013.130225T2100Z-130226T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0019.130225T2100Z-130226T2100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
506 AM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON AKST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON AKST TUESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW...3 TO 7 INCHES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS FROM DILLINGHAM
  NORTH.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES MAINLY WEST OF
  KING SALMON. 

* WIND...NORTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THIS MORNING WITH THE
  HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK THIS EVENING
  INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED
  IN SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN
AREAS.

&&

$$

AKZ155-260315-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-130226T2000Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
506 AM AKST MON FEB 25 2013

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY...THEN WILL AGAIN
  DROP TO 45 BELOW TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY RISE TUESDAY
  MORNING ENDING THE ADVISORY.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT FEB 23 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE PATTERN AND LOCATION OF MAJOR UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES...AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST THEY DIVERGE
ON THE LOCATION OF IMPORTANT SURFACE FEATURES SUCH AS THE LOW IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. DIVERGENCE
INCREASES BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL MODELS THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF...WITH SOME
GFS USED IN THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN STEERING LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BERING
STRAIT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STEERING LOW. ONE IS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THE OTHER IS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
(AKPEN) AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST. A FRONT LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
BOTH OF THESE LOWS IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TO MOST AREAS. AS THE AKPEN LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO COASTAL
AREAS AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF IS FURTHER
SOUTH.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS/BERING SEA...THE MAIN STEERING LOW
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
BERING SEA. THE GENERAL FORMULA WILL BE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN ALEUTIANS THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AKPEN THEN EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. AREAS SUCH AS THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL HAVE LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM THE ALEUTIANS ACROSS THE
AKPEN AND INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON DETAILS...THEY ALL SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW 195
MARINE...GALE WARNING 132 150 155 170 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 165 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 13