Areal Flood Advisory 708, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE VFR CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SITES THROUGH TODAY. ISOLD TO SCT TS/SH WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANT RULE OUT EFFECTS TO
LVS/TCC AND ROW. USED VCTS AND VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WILL
UPDATE ONCE CELLS REFORM AND CAN GET A GAGE FOR WHICH TERMINAL
SITE WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWING
DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PUSH. LVS/ROW AND TCC WILL BE IMPACTED. PRIOR
TO THE MAIN FRONTAL PUSH...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PROVIDE MVFR CONDITIONS. THUS A BUSY OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2013...
AT 09Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/AZ. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
HURRICANE MANUEL IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE A NEAR-MISS FOR MOST OF NM AND MAINLY IMPACT TX
AND THE FAR SE PLAINS OF NM LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS IN AND
PROVIDES A FOCUS.

A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EAST OVER NM FRIDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL MAKE SW PROGRESS AND WASH-OUT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RECHARGING MOISTURE A
BIT AND HELPING TO KEEP PWATS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT-LIVED BREEZY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND UP A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF NM AND STRONGER WESTERLIES PUNCH BACK IN WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY...MAINLY NORTH...GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES.

DRY AIR FORECAST TO PUNCH IN BEHIND SUNDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND HANG AROUND FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THE NEXT...AND MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEUTRAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS LOOK TO TREND
UP A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE LEADING TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND NO RAIN-COOLING FOR A CHANGE.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL COLLIDE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
MAKE THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS THE FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL WIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THEN THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE ERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND STORMS HARD TO COME BY OVER
THE PLAINS. FAVORED AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...PARTICULARLY IN THE PECOS
WILDERNESS/WATERSHED AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMBINE
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO GET A STRONG STORM OR TWO GOING THERE.
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORM ARE EXPECTED.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL MOUNTAINS...WEST-CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NW PLATEAU SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SIMILAR
TO THE ONE THAT PASSED THROUGH YESTERDAY/WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED STORMS FORECAST AREAWIDE...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE NORTH WHERE WIND SHEAR AND
A FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ARE FORECAST TO BE SUCH THAT A FEW
STORMS WITH LARGE/PLENTIFUL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. VENTILATION RATES WILL TREND UPWARD AS WELL
WITH THE INCREASING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
500 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2013

NMZ501>540-201200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
500 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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