Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Las Vegas, NV

413 
WGUS75 KVEF 132343
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
443 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

CAC071-140045-
/O.CON.KVEF.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120714T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
443 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM PDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 434 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...OR 29 MILES WEST OF
PARKER. THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND 
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 62 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 124 AND 
ALSO HIGHWAY 95 NORTH OF VIDAL JUNCTION BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 
30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN WASHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND ON
AREA ROADWAYS. FLASH FLOODING IS NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLER. TO ESCAPE
RISING WATER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED
ROADWAY OR WALK THROUGH FLOODWATERS. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

REPORT FLOODING BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...
NWSVEGAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 11482 3446 11461 3412 11461 3408 11475
      3408 11509

$$

JENSEN

896 
WGUS75 KVEF 140042
FFSVEF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
542 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

CAC071-140048-
/O.EXP.KVEF.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120714T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
542 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM PDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE AREA...ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED TO THE 
SOUTH AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO 
COUNTY. 

PERSONS TRAVELING IN SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS EVENING 
SHOULD BE AWARE OF RUNNING WATER IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND PONDING 
OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

LAT...LON 3449 11482 3446 11461 3412 11461 3408 11475
      3408 11509

$$

JENSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
321 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...GRADUALLY REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST ABOUT AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER SOCAL CONTINUES TO BECOME
STRETCHED OUT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TAKING ON MORE OF AN
ELONGATED LOOK TO IT AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST. MODEL 500 MB PROGS
SHOWED THIS IN THEIR VORTICITY AND HEIGHT FIELDS QUITE NICELY ON THE
12Z RUNS AND OVERALL WITH RESPECT TO GENERAL SYNOPTIC SET-UP THINGS
LOOK ON TRACK. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HEAD TOWARDS THE MOJAVE
NATIONAL PRESERVE THIS EVENING AND THEN TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA
(LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES) BY SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH BY SATURDAY EVENING.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWAT WAS 1.46 INCH ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM OUR
OFFICE AND 1.44 INCH ON A 13Z SOUNDING FROM EDWARDS AFB) LIES IN
PLACE SO THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THAT TO WORK WITH. THE 12Z
GFS SHOWS A 50 KT+ JET STREAK AT 250 MB SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS OF SOCAL THIS EVENING TOWARDS NORTHWEST ARIZONA ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THE
BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERALL EXPECT THE MAIN
ISSUE IN THIS AREA TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD TRIGGER
FLASH FLOODING. FURTHER SOUTH THINGS COULD BE MORE INTERESTING THIS
EVENING AS A DRY PUNCH OF AIR HAS PUSHED NORTH ACROSS THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING AND GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE A
BETTER CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO
WATCH FOR MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. STORMS
IN THIS AREA MAY HAVE A BETTER SHOT TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING GUSTY WINDS. HAIL IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH MOST
LIKELY WOULD BE SMALL...WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 15000 FEET. THE
WRF AND LOCAL NMM MODELS BOTH HAVE INDICATED THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST INYO COUNTY.
POPS THIS EVENING WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE WRF AND NMM AND RADAR
TRENDS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE HIGH UNLOAD POTENTIAL IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS FOR HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT LINCOLN COUNTY COULD STAY QUITE ACTIVE AS EVERYTHING
THAT DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING HEADS IN THAT GENERAL
DIRECTION. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN WILL BE TRICKY AND BLENDED CONTINUITY
WITH THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING EXCEPT FOR NW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THE MORONGO AND CADIZ
BASINS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY
WITH PWATS OF 1.25 INCHES OR GREATER AND 850 MB DEWPOINTS OF 12C+
OVER THE EASTERN CWFA AND ONCE AGAIN THE UNLOAD POTENTIAL WILL BE
THERE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REALLY GET GOING. IN ADDITION THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE OVER LINCOLN/CLARK
COUNTIES SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. FURTHER
WEST DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL START TO WORK IN FROM THE
PACIFIC AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH. I DID TRIM
POPS BACK A LITTLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF BARSTOW. AS LONG AS WE CLEAR
OUT TOMORROW MORNING...WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD START TO GET CONVECTION
GOING AND I DID ADJUST UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. TEMPS TOMORROW
SHOULD TREND UP WHERE WE GET MORE SUN BUT IN MANY AREAS FURTHER EAST
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A BLEND OF THE
MET AND MAV WERE USED FOR HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION WIND DOWN SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE GETS KICKED ACROSS UTAH
ON SUNDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE DIGS SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA. OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THEN TOWARDS SOCAL. WITH
MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS OUR AREA AND THIS ENERGY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWFA DRIER AND STABLE
AIR IS SHOWN TO BE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE AND THESE AREAS SHOULD STAY
FREE OF CONVECTION. POPS WERE INCREASED SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWFA AS THE WRF ESPECIALLY DEVELOPS CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL GRADUALLY
RESULT IN DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LINGERING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN THE EAST WILL STILL SUPPORT KEEPING IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE ON
TUESDAY. AGAIN THE MOIST-DRY BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUSING AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. I ADJUSTED DOWN MAX TEMPS TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS AS BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS LOOKED
CONTAMINATED BY RECENT TRENDS.

BY WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THAT EDGES WEST INTO
ARIZONA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPS
TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. BY THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT MAY TURN
SOUTHERLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO SNEAK BACK IN. THUS WE
LEFT IN SOME HIGH GHOST POPS TO LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THESE WERE INCREASED TO MORE OF A BROADBRUSHED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS AROUND...TEMPS SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL GIVEN THE HIGHER HEIGHTS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE THEN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING WILL BE WHEN
ANY TSRA WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE VALLEY. THE SET-UP IN THE
ATMOSPHERE FAVORS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY LOOKS MOST LIKELY IN THE VALLEY THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. WHILE
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
REDUCED. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBY
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY TSRA AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 10 KTS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY
AOA 8K-12K FEET AWAY FROM TSRA.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THOUGH THE
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY
STORMS. AWAY FROM SHRA/TSRA WINDS SHOULD FAVOR DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL
TRENDS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8K-12K FEET AWAY FROM TSRA.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WET STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY SO NO HEADLINES APPEAR NEEDED AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS IN
AND NEAR STORMS WILL BE A HAZARD NEAR ANY CURRENT FIRES ALREADY
GOING.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NVZ015>022.
AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR CAZ522-524-527.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523-525-526.
&&

STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ522-524-527-NVZ015>022-140930-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-LINCOLN COUNTY-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-SHEEP RANGE-
SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012 /1126 AM MST FRI JUL 13 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. NEVER DRIVE
YOUR CAR INTO AN AREA WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER LINCOLN...CLARK
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
CHANCES BEGINNING TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ519>521-NVZ014-140930-
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
DECREASE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ523-525-526-140930-
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-
1126 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
REMEMBER...MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. NEVER DRIVE
YOUR CAR INTO AN AREA WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH CHANCES
BEGINNING TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

STACHELSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
323 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNW HUALAPAI MOUNTAIN 35.15N 113.91W
07/13/2012                   MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DRIVEWAY DAMAGED. ROCKS AND MUD WASHED ACROSS DRIVEWAY
            AND ROAD.

0255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE HUALAPAI MOUNTAIN 35.11N 113.81W
07/13/2012  M1.25 INCH       MOHAVE             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF RUNOFF WHICH FILLED HIS LAKE TO SIX FEET DEEP.
            THE LAKE WAS EMPTY BEFORE THE STORM. RAINFALL MEASURED AT
            1.25 INCHES WITH THE THUNDERSTORM.

&&

JH