Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
234 PM MST WED AUG 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE FIRING ON SCHEDULE ALONG THE RIM WITH A FEW
CELLS POPPING UP ON THE SKY ISLANDS. STILL CONCERNED FOR A DECENT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TODAY. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING STILL SHOWED
PLENTY OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TO KEEP THE THREAT HIGH. PLUS WIND SHEAR
ON THE MORNING SOUNDING LOOKS BETTER THAN RECENT MEMORY. WE STILL
HAVE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING LEFT TO GO SO ACTIVITY MAY HOLD OFF IN
THE VALLEYS FOR ANOTHER 1 OR 3 HOURS...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS HAVE
INCREASED SINCE I BEGAN WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. THINKING THE STORMS
ALONG THE RIM WILL GENERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH WEST INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN AND MIX WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR. DOWNBURST WINDS ARE A CONCERN ALONG WITH  THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING DUST. A FEW HAIL STONES ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING WERE TRACKING AT ABOUT 18KTS SO
ANTICIPATE A SIMILAR STORM SPEED TODAY. STILL CONCERNED OVER
LOCALIZED FLOODING EVEN WITH THE FASTER STORM MOTION. PRECIP WATER
VALUES ARE UP AROUND 1.5 AND THE ACTIVITY MAY FORM INTO AN MCS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

INCREASED POPS FOR TODAY ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LINE FROM
GREENLEE COUNTY DOWN TO SOUTHERN PIMA. ALSO UPPED QPF AMOUNTS A TAD.

THE NEXT BIG CONCERN IS THE HEAT FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. WE WILL
BE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS STARTING AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY...WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ECMWF IS RUNNING WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BASED ON THE
850-700MB THICKNESS REGRESSION METHOD...THE TUCSON AREA WILL HOVER
AROUND 109 OR 110 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS THICKNESS VALUES ARE
RUNNING ABOUT 10 DAM LOWER THAN THE EURO WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
BY ABOUT 4 DEGREES. WITH THE UPPER HIGH EXPECTED TO SIT OVER THE
SW...WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY PLANTED SQUARELY OVER THE STATE...AND
THE EXPECTED DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DECIDED TO ERR
ON THE SIDE OF HOT AND INCREASED TEMPS TO JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
RANGE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE HOT CONDITIONS MAY EVEN
LAST INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. CONVECTION SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY REACHING THE
LOWER DESERTS OR VALLEYS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT STORMS SO WILL
CARRY THE LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA ESPECIALLY FROM KOLS TO KTUS
NORTHEAST TOWARD GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 KTS...POSSIBLY GREATER...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING OR 09/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONFINE
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS OUTSIDE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

JJB

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1031 AM MST WED AUG 8 2012

AZZ501>515-090615-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER VALLEY/ALTAR VALLEY-TUCSON METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS-
DRAGOON AND MULE AND HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS-
CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS-
1031 AM MST WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH ACROSS MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DECREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 PM MST WED AUG 8 2012

AZZ509>511-082300-
GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM AZ-UPPER GILA
RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ-WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN MEADOW
AZ-
335 PM MST WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM MST...

AT 327 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAFFORD...SOLOMON...FORT
THOMAS...THATCHER...SWIFT TRAIL JUNCTION...PIMA...FRYE MESA DAM AND
MOUNT GRAHAM.

LAT...LON 3273 10955 3261 10970 3280 11011 3299 11001
      3310 10974 3296 10947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 035DEG 19KT 3294 10962

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
341 PM MST WED AUG 8 2012

AZZ507-508-513-082315-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW
5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
341 PM MST WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MST...

AT 340 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SIERRA VISTA...MOVING WEST
AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SIERRA VISTA...NICKSVILLE...
CORONADO NATIONAL MEMORIAL AND RAMSEY CANYON PRESERVE.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF SAINT DAVID MOVING TOWARD
KARTCHNER CAVERNS STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3134 11045 3195 11044 3196 10998 3134 10991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 076DEG 10KT 3145 11023

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
418 PM MST WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N HEREFORD            31.45N 110.19W
08/08/2012  M62 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1200056

RSM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
425 PM MST WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N HEREFORD            31.47N 110.19W
08/08/2012                   COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF ... 0.35 RAINFALL IN 10 MINUTES

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1200057

RSM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
527 PM MST WED AUG 8 2012

AZZ504>506-514-090100-
SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING
ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK AZ-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING
KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
527 PM MST WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PINAL AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MST...

AT 525 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF ORACLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ORO VALLEY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIOSPHERE 2...CATALINA...
SADDLEBROOKE AND ORACLE JUNCTION.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3245 11094 3255 11115 3277 11107 3277 11073
      3262 11080 3246 11073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 117DEG 10KT 3251 11084

KD