Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
OFFER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REGARDING THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY...WILL ALLOW NPW TO
EXPIRE AT 02Z. WILL HOLD OF AN ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
WITH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE DURATION/AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION TOMORROW.

STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND
THEN SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN PUSHING DRIER
AND COOLER SURFACE AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
FRIDAY...AND WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY BY AUGUST STANDARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEING TO REBOUND FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK...BUT INCONSISTENTLY PLACED QPF
SIGNALS INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76 100  75 101 /  30  30  10   0
FSM   75 101  76 101 /  10  20  30  10
MLC   76 100  74 101 /  30  20  20  10
BVO   71  99  70 100 /  30  30  10   0
FYV   69  96  71  97 /  10  30  20  10
BYV   68  96  71  95 /  10  30  20  10
MKO   75  99  73 102 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   72  98  73  98 /  20  30  10   0
F10   74 100  74 101 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   76  99  76 100 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MANY OF THESE STORMS ARE BRIEFLY BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS... SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON... CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS SUCH... THE FIRE DANGER ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
OVER THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

OKZ049-073-075-072200-
LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
422 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN PITTSBURG...NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 421 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HIGGINS...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...HIGGINS...GOWEN AND SARDIS.

ANOTHER STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR YANUSH AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3457 9538 3457 9560 3497 9550 3488 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 002DEG 8KT 3482 9541

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
432 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-072200-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
432 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 432 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FIGURE FIVE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT
MOVES TOWARD VAN BUREN.

LAT...LON 3532 9427 3536 9444 3537 9443 3537 9447
      3539 9453 3560 9441 3555 9420
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 018DEG 10KT 3554 9433

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
435 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

OKZ071-072200-
MCINTOSH OK-
435 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MCINTOSH

AT 435 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CHECOTAH...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...EUFAULA...CHECOTAH...ONAPA AND LAKE EUFAULA STATE
PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3552 9558 3552 9547 3531 9542 3530 9548
      3530 9550 3529 9551 3525 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 357DEG 11KT 3546 9553

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

ARZ011-072215-
MADISON AR-
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN MADISON

AT 449 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CROSSES...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...COMBS...PATRICK...DELANEY AND CROSSES.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3577 9380 3577 9396 3581 9396 3591 9393
      3590 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 007DEG 7KT 3587 9388

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

OKZ073>075-072245-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-PITTSBURG OK-
515 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHERN
     LATIMER

AT 512 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER SOUTHWEST
HASKELL COUNTY BETWEEN KINTA AND QUINTON.  THE STORMS WERE PRODUCING
WINDS THAT WILL MOVE OUT AWAY FROM THE STORMS AND GUST TO 50 MPH IN
SOME AREAS.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN... BUT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN LATIMER COUNTY AND NORTHEAST PITTSBURG COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM.

LAT...LON 3506 9535 3507 9516 3496 9512 3497 9546
      3519 9544 3519 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 357DEG 4KT 3510 9527

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

ARZ010-011-019-020-072300-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
533 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN

AT 533 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
BIDVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3557 9398 3567 9423 3586 9403 3582 9392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 026DEG 11KT 3580 9399