Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Tulsa, OK

August 16, 2012Franklin County, Madison County, Washington County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 16, 2012, 7:38 PM CDT for Franklin County, Madison County, Washington County, Arkansas. It was in force for 37 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 16, 2012, 7:38 PM CDT (00:38 UTC)
Expired: Aug 16, 2012, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Washington County, AR

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 16, 7:55 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Saint Paul, AR	SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND TOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 17 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 286 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -168 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1248 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

960 
WUUS54 KTSA 170038
SVRTSA
ARC047-087-143-170115-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0238.120817T0038Z-120817T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
738 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
  NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 737 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
  SAINT PAUL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SAINT
  PAUL...BOSTON AND PETTIGREW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 9361 3576 9369 3569 9369 3568 9370
      3574 9391 3576 9390 3576 9398 3578 9406
      3594 9402 3590 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 283DEG 17KT 3585 9397

$$

2 follow-up statements

354 
WWUS54 KTSA 170058
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
758 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARC143-170109-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-120817T0115Z/
WASHINGTON AR-
758 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3576 9361 3576 9369 3569 9369 3568 9370
      3574 9391 3575 9389 3576 9390 3577 9396
      3593 9393 3591 9358 3590 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 283DEG 18KT 3579 9384

$$

ARC047-087-170115-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-120817T0115Z/
FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-
758 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 757 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COMBS...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
BRASHEARS...SAINT PAUL...BOSTON...DUTTON AND PETTIGREW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 9361 3576 9369 3569 9369 3568 9370
      3574 9391 3575 9389 3576 9390 3577 9396
      3593 9393 3591 9358 3590 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 283DEG 18KT 3579 9384

$$

292 
WWUS54 KTSA 170110
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
810 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARC047-087-170120-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-120817T0115Z/
FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-
810 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 815 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3576 9361 3576 9369 3569 9369 3568 9370
      3574 9391 3575 9389 3576 9390 3577 9396
      3593 9393 3591 9358 3590 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 283DEG 18KT 3578 9377

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 16, 3:16 PM CDT, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 3:16 PM CDT, 4 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROF STRETCHING FROM FAR
NW AR INTO CNTRL OK...WITH TRUE COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WCNTRL OK. HAVE SEEN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING BOUNDARY...WITH
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT. SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
MEAGER...BUT HIGH INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG) WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AS
WELL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO SE OK OVERNIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR THE
RED RIVER/NRN TX FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW IN
PLACE...COULD SEE A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER WAVE
COMING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY S OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ECMWF
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A STRONGER UPPER WAVE INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.

CLOUD COVER/PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY BLENDED THE MET/MAV FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  87  64  86 /  50  20  50  30
FSM   72  92  69  88 /  50  30  60  40
MLC   70  92  67  88 /  50  40  60  40
BVO   64  87  59  87 /  40  20  40  20
FYV   66  86  61  85 /  60  20  40  30
BYV   65  85  60  82 /  60  20  30  20
MKO   69  90  64  88 /  50  30  60  40
MIO   66  86  61  84 /  50  20  20  20
F10   70  90  66  87 /  50  30  60  40
HHW   72  92  70  88 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 16, 4:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
430 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BEGIN TO
WANE SOMEWHAT TOWARD LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.

HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HEAT...GUSTY WINDS...AND CONTINUED DRY FUELS WILL RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. OUTFLOWS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO RESULT IN A QUICK RISE IN WIND SPEED AS
WELL AS ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS THAT COULD CAUSE FIRE FIGHTING
ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. A SECONDARY PUSH OF DRIER AIR WILL
ADVANCE THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 16, 6:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND GST     KELLYVILLE              35.94N 96.21W
08/16/2012  E60 MPH          CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SFP

Local storm report, Aug 16, 6:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SSE TULSA             36.01N 95.86W
08/16/2012  E75 MPH          TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORT...RELAYED VIA KRMG RADIO

&&

SFP

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 6:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ARZ011-020-170000-
FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-
637 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN MADISON

AT 637 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DUTTON...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...RED STAR...SAINT PAUL...PETTIGREW...DUTTON AND
BOSTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3592 9350 3588 9350 3587 9352 3577 9351
      3576 9352 3576 9369 3573 9369 3575 9379
      3593 9377 3593 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 275DEG 17KT 3583 9367

Local storm report, Aug 16, 6:46 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             BIXBY                   35.94N 95.88W
08/16/2012  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SFP

Local storm report, Aug 16, 7:09 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
709 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE BROKEN ARROW      36.00N 95.76W
08/16/2012                   WAGONER            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND A FENCE DOWN NEAR 101ST STREET AND
            THE CREEK TURNPIKE.

&&

SFP

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 7:25 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
725 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

OKZ060-064-066-170100-
CREEK OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-
725 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CREEK...NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHERN TULSA

AT 725 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
KELLYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...LIBERTY...HECTORVILLE...
GLENPOOL...MOUNDS...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE AND SAPULPA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3601 9589 3579 9593 3581 9625 3602 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 272DEG 17KT 3593 9614

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 16, 7:27 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Franklin, Madison	2 hr
Aug 16, 9:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Franklin, Madison	97 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.