Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Tulsa, OK

214 
WWUS54 KTSA 262142 RRA
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
442 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

OKC077-079-262153-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-120726T2200Z/
LE FLORE OK-LATIMER OK-
442 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LATIMER AND WESTERN LE
FLORE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3502 9488 3482 9482 3471 9527 3491 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 257DEG 25KT 3487 9504

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
350 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS NW ARKANSAS WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
GENERAL ZONE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS NE
OKLAHOMA...THOUGH MCV CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR KPNC MAY TRIGGER AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. REGIONAL MESONANLYSIS
INDICATES DCAPES 1200-1500 GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-44 AND
LOCALLY PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT WIND GRIDS SHOWING VERY HIGH VALUES
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...THUS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
RELATIVELY HIGH. GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTH EXPECTED TONIGHT.

CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 02Z AND THE PRESENT
CONFIGURATION WELL SUPPORTED BY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. WILL LOOK
AND SEE JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE WHETHER ANY COUNTIES CAN BE DROPPED
AS STORMS ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW 75.

BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CONVECTION WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY WITH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING SOUTH OF I-40.
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL FOOTPRINT WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN IN THAT AREA...BUT TEMPS WILL HEAT UP AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SITUATION IS MARGINAL AT THIS POINT AS DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO
FALL OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND THUS HEAT INDEX MAY BE CLOSE OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ACTUAL TEMPS. NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
AN ADVISORY AS A RESULT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF BY THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT BECOMING LIKELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXCESSIVE HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION ALONG EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD IMPACT NW ARKANSAS BUT PROBABILITY
TOO LO2W TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78 102  79 104 /  30  10  10  10
FSM   78  99  77 103 /  60  30  10  10
MLC   76  96  76 102 /  60  20   0  10
BVO   70 103  74 105 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   69  98  71 100 /  50  20   0  10
BYV   69  98  71 100 /  50  20   0  10
MKO   76 100  75 102 /  50  20  10  10
MIO   73 101  75 103 /  20  10   0  10
F10   75 100  75 103 /  40  20   0  10
HHW   77  95  74 100 /  60  50  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
123 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-270630-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
123 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DANGEROUS HEAT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 3 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED INTO THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
90S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS WHERE HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS...VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGERS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE GREATEST FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WHERE HIGHER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE LOCAL SPOTTER NETWORK MAY BE NEEDED...PRIMARILY
TO RELAY ANY DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER
         POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
                             DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN PROBABLE FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WHILE
DANGEROUS HEAT AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.

HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS BACK OVER THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK TO BE COMMON AND VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGERS WITHIN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EXCESSIVE HEAT RELATED RESPONSES ARE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER
PROLONGED STRETCH OF HEAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
336 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
07/26/2012                   WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MAPLE AND MISSION

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
358 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E ROGERS              36.33N 93.97W
07/26/2012                   BENTON             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON RAMBO ROAD EAST OF ROGERS.

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYFIELD                36.13N 93.94W
07/26/2012                   WASHINGTON         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AT STATE HIGHWAY 45 AND 303.

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELKINS                  36.00N 94.01W
07/26/2012                   WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

&&

BAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
416 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-076-262215-
CRAWFORD AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
416 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 415 PM CDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF COTTONWOOD TO 35 MILES WEST OF
HODGEN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3507 9423 3497 9422 3495 9429 3494 9435
      3495 9436 3492 9444 3459 9445 3459 9469
      3545 9469 3545 9419 3508 9419
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 270DEG 11KT 3536 9458 3479 9523

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

OKZ049-073>076-262145-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
419 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...WESTERN LE FLORE...SOUTHEASTERN
     PITTSBURG...NORTHERN PUSHMATAHA AND LATIMER

AT 419 PM CDT...SSCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MILTON TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF DAMON TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF STANLEY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3450 9579 3451 9578 3451 9568 3459 9568
      3459 9570 3460 9571 3520 9488 3532 9469
      3458 9470 3445 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 249DEG 25KT 3517 9485 3481 9529
          3446 9569