Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Topeka, KS

469 
WWUS53 KTOP 272151
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

KSC157-272230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-120527T2230Z/
REPUBLIC KS-
451 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
REPUBLIC COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 446 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCANDIA...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
         DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REPUBLIC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 9770 3974 9793 4000 9794 4000 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 198DEG 35KT 3985 9778

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

778 
WWUS53 KTOP 272207
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
507 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

KSC157-272230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-120527T2230Z/
REPUBLIC KS-
507 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
REPUBLIC COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 505 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BYRON...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
         DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3986 9762 3988 9789 4000 9787 4000 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 198DEG 35KT 3999 9769

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

OMITT

367 
WWUS53 KTOP 272220
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

KSC157-272229-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-120527T2230Z/
REPUBLIC KS-
520 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL REPUBLIC COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

LAT...LON 3986 9762 3988 9789 4000 9787 4000 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 198DEG 35KT 4010 9764

$$

OMITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE
RESOLVING MEMBERS SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM INITIATION ALONG A
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT BETWEEN 21-22Z IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WELL WEST
OF THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY MATURE AND MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY ENTER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BETWEEN 01-04Z. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. WITH
RELATIVELY LARGE T-TD SPREADS DURING THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD MITIGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL IN
MOST ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SUSTAINED
ISOLATED/SEMI-ISO CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS STORMS
EVOLVE...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS COLD POOLS BEGIN TO DOMINATE
THE STORM-SCALE PROCESS. AS THE UPPER ASCENT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WILL ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF LOCALIZED ASCENT FROM COLD POOL
GENERATION AND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH A MODEST
INSTABILITY FIELD...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS REMAINING DRY. LIKEWISE...SEVERE
WEATHER IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FOCI.

MONDAY...A FEW ELEVATED EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW AND QUICKLY EXIT THE
CWA BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. EVEN
THOUGH MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED NEAR OR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY BE ON THE WARM
SIDE AS ONLY WEAK CAA ARRIVES LATE. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO REACH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. BLAIR

A BREAK FROM THE HEAT NEXT WEEK AS COOLER CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
WAA RETURNS OVER THE FRONT INTO KANSAS. CHANCE FOR DAYTIME
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY COMES FROM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OF TIMING DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM WITH NAM THE SLOWER LESS AMPLIFIED OF THE
TWO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S MONDAY COOL TO THE UPPER 70S
WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE COULD LEAVE HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THURSDAY TO NEAR 70 ON
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PASSING
WAVE ON THURSDAY THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY WITH WAA
RETURNING AHEAD OF WARMER TEMPS.  67

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR AND ABOVE 20KTS SUSTAINED WANE TO AROUND 10KTS AS A FRONTAL
PASSAGE VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AT KTOP/KFOE AND 09Z AT
KMHK. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA TRACKING NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM MAY NEAR KMHK AFT 07Z
WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE FOR COVERAGE OF SH OR TSRA TO MAKE IT TO
KTOP/KFOE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KTS WILL MIX DOWN
AFTER 07Z WITH SFC WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST MAY CREATE LLWS
AFTER 07Z.

BOWEN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-282030-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
328 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW
OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OF GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN STRENGTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE TURNPIKE...ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CLAY CENTER.