Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Great Falls, MT

094 
WWUS45 KTFX 260403
WSWTFX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
903 PM MST TUE DEC 25 2012

MTZ011-013-261200-
/O.EXA.KTFX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T1800Z/
HILL-CHOUTEAU-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...HAVRE...BIG SANDY
903 PM MST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 BELOW TO
20 BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. AS A RESULT WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING: FROM 8 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES: 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* OTHER IMPACTS: EXPOSED SKIN CAN DEVELOP FROSTBITE IN 20 TO 30 
  MINUTES.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: HAVRE...BIG SANDY...LOMA.

* TO SEE A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HAZARD PLEASE VISIT 
  WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=TFX:

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$

MTZ047-261200-
/O.CON.KTFX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T1800Z/
BLAINE-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...CHINOOK
903 PM MST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
WEDNESDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST
WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 BELOW TO
20 BELOW ZERO WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES. AS A RESULT WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE 25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING: FROM 8 PM TONIGHT TO 11 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WIND CHILL VALUES: 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO.

* OTHER IMPACTS: EXPOSED SKIN CAN DEVELOP FROSTBITE IN 20 TO 30 
  MINUTES.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: CHINOOK.

* TO SEE A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THIS HAZARD PLEASE VISIT 
  WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/WRH/WHV/?WFO=TFX:

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$

598 
WWUS45 KTFX 261050
WSWTFX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
350 AM MST WED DEC 26 2012


MTZ011-013-047-261200-
/O.CAN.KTFX.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T1800Z/
HILL-CHOUTEAU-BLAINE-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...HAVRE...BIG SANDY...CHINOOK
350 AM MST WED DEC 26 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 AM MST Tue Dec 25 2012

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
Only minor modifications to forecast for today. Biggest forecast
challenge is the location of the boundary of the cold air. Models
show this air mass being moved further to the east today as ridge
rebuilds over the area and next Pacific system approaches. Even as
this occurs, temperature recovery will be slow and highs today
across the hiline are not expected to break out of the single
digits. Southwest Montana should see more warming with highs in
that area reaching into the upper teens and lower 20s. Quiet day
otherwise with little in the way of precipitation or wind expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1750Z.
VFR conditions are expected until 12Z Wednesday. Expect widespread
clouds 10000 to 12000 ft MSL will dissipate during the afternoon.
Ceilings above 15000 ft will develop this evening then lower the
rest of tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow will develop over the
western and southwest mountains Wednesday morning and mountains will
become generally obscured. Some light snow should also develop in
the southwest valleys and southern east slopes by late morning with
at least areas of MVFR ceilings and visibilities if not widespread
MVFR ceilings and visibilities. There also should be local IFR
ceilings and visibilities in the snow. Winds will remain light and
mainly easterly. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 AM MST Tue Dec 25 2012/

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Water vapor indicates an upper level high
pressure ridge over the west coast and a low pressure trof moving
east of the zones. As this trof continues to move east, high
pressure will build over the region. Temperatures, however, will be
mainly determined by the surface boundary of cold air as it retreats
to the north. Cold overnight lows will make warming of the airmass a
struggle and will keep most temps across the central and northern
zones below guidance. The ridge will move east of the zones
Wednesday as another low pressure trof moves over the pacific
northwest. Once the ridge has moved east, the region will remain
under the influence of a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft through
Thursday. This will keep the region...mainly the southwest
zones...unsettled with light snow in the forecast. Zelzer

Thursday Night through Tuesday Night...Forecast models are in good
agreement with general forecast trend through this period. However,
the exact details and locations of certain features this weekend
differ somewhat, and will discuss this later. An upper level ridge
of high pressure will move into the area in the wake of the exiting
upper level trough, which will keep the area mostly dry Thursday
night through Friday night. Models are also in good agreement with
bringing breezy westerly downslope winds to the plains of north
central and central Montana during this time, so have increased
associated high and low temperatures to near and above normal
levels, respectively. A large-scale upper level trough of low
pressure will then move southeast into western Canada and CONUS
Saturday through Sunday. Energy from this trough will split during
this time, some moving across Montana and some moving into the
southwestern CONUS, ultimately weakening the overall strength of the
trough. Models differ a bit on the exact timing of the disturbances
moving over the TFX CWA. Am therefore only moderately confident in
any one model solution and will be continuing a more broad-brushed
approach to that period at this time, avoiding significantly warm or
cool temperatures and high chances of precipitation. Regardless,
models continue to downplay how much precipitation is generated.
Will keep temperatures near seasonal averages with just a chance of
mainly mountain snow. An upper level ridge of high pressure will
then begin to move back into the area from the west for the early
part of next week, which will cause temperatures to warm back to
slightly above normal with mostly dry conditions and breezy westerly
winds. Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  10   3  15   5 /  10  10  10  20
CTB   2  -7   8  -1 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  15   7  21  10 /  10  20  30  40
BZN  15   4  24   9 /  10  10  30  60
WEY  15  -1  21   8 /  10  20  50  50
DLN  21   8  28  11 /  10  20  40  60
HVR   1 -15   8  -8 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  11   1  20   3 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOSS
LONG TERM...COULSTON
AVIATION...BLANK

weather.gov/greatfalls

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
358 AM MST TUE DEC 25 2012

MTZ008>015-044>055-261215-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
358 AM MST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.