Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 AM EST THU JAN 19 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PLEASANT
DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A COOL
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE NATURE COAST...MID AND UPPER 40S
CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RIDGES
BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. PLEASANT DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VEERING FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WILL
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO SOME 5
TO 7 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH READINGS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S EACH AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE REINFORCED FROM THE
NORTH AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
NE OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ARE CLEARING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE
ACROSS PGD...FMY AND RSW. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
SIMILAR SPEEDS EXPECTED. DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS NUDGES SOUTH A
BIT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS BY
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL SUPPORT LONG
DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THESE LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
35 PERCENT COMBINED WITH HIGH ERC VALUES OVER PINELLAS...SARASOTA
AND LEE COUNTIES WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE FOR THESE
COUNTIES. MARGINALLY HIGH ERC VALUES COMBINED WITH THE LONG
DURATIONS OF RH'S BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL ALSO WARRANT A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ISSUANCE FOR LEVY...HERNANDO...PASCO...POLK AND CHARLOTTE
COUNTIES AS WELL. THE DRY AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  52  76  59 /   0   0   0   5
FMY  75  51  78  57 /   0   0   0   5
GIF  69  48  75  56 /   0   0   0   5
SRQ  71  49  75  58 /   0   0   0   5
BKV  69  36  77  48 /   0   0   0   5
SPG  69  57  75  60 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR LEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-182245-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
535 AM EST WED JAN 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PAXTON