Red Flag Warning 29, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

101 
WWUS82 KTBW 232349
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
749 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FLZ051-052-240100-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0029.000000T0000Z-120524T0000Z/
HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
749 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY
8 PM THIS EVENING...THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
129 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE
TRYING TO CLOSE OFF A LOW BY FRIDAY...BUT THEY HAVE SINCE BACKED
OFF OF THAT SOLUTION A BIT. HOWEVER...THEY DO STILL SHOW A WEAKER
SYSTEM TRYING TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW FUTURE RUNS DEVELOP THIS AREA. THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY CARRIES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER THOSE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD SO WILL USE A BLEND.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST WILL
SUPPORT STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE WEAK UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA THE
EASTERN GULF AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

ON SATURDAY LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES
WILL KEEP OVERALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE ISOLATED RANGE (POPS 20
PERCENT) WITH LOW END SCATTERED RANGE POPS (30 PERCENT) EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF FORT MYERS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS
RETROGRADE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
(EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS. DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA
COMES UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVERGENT/WET SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES WEST INTO THE GULF WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
A POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY. MEX POPS HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 40 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME DUE TO THE FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODELS.

ON TUESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (POPS 40 PERCENT)
ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHING REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. WITH A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWING
ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
CARIBBEAN RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED HIGHER IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCT-BKN CU FIELD
HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEADING TO A FEW
ISOLATED/WDLY SCT THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY/EVENING. BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
FROM KPGD SOUTHWARD TO THE FORT MYERS TERMINALS. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY
NIGHT...SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON
LOCATION OR TIMING TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. SEA BREEZES WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  91  75  92 /  20  30  20  20
FMY  72  91  74  92 /  20  30  20  30
GIF  71  92  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
SRQ  71  90  73  93 /  20  30  20  30
BKV  65  92  69  92 /  10  20  20  10
SPG  76  89  77  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
AVIATION...14/MROCZKA
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
423 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-232030-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
423 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE FAR SOUTH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING THAT INCREASES TO A CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
FROM NORTH OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY TO AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION
CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND HAIL. ALL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY TODAY. IF THUNDER IS
HEARD OR LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

09/RKR