Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

502 
WWUS82 KTBW 101812
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
212 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR POLK COUNTY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING...

.A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ERC VALUES ABOVE
35 WILL PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN POLK COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

FLZ052-111100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.A.0007.120411T1600Z-120412T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120411T0000Z/
POLK-
212 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR POLK COUNTY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR POLK COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA...POLK.

* WIND...WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN 
  NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.

* HUMIDITY...AROUND 30 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

&&

$$

PRC

196 
WWUS82 KTBW 102358
RFWTBW

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
758 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR POLK
COUNTY... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR POLK COUNTY...

.THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND ERC VALUES
ABOVE 35 MAY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN POLK COUNTY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FLZ052-111100-
/O.EXP.KTBW.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120411T0000Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.A.0007.120411T1600Z-120412T0000Z/
POLK-
758 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR POLK COUNTY...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR POLK
COUNTY...

* AFFECTED AREA...POLK COUNTY.

* WIND...NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING
  TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD.

&&

$$

JRJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
407 AM EDT TUE APR 10 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A WEAK U/L DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH WILL BECOME ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA THURSDAY WITH DRIER
COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BECOMING A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON THURSDAY. PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT. THE PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
500 MB TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST. RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THROUGH THE SEVERAL DAYS
FOLLOWING...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST AND WILL
PROVIDE A RETURN FLOW WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. THE 500 MB RIDGING
WILL SLIDE OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE AND 500 MB PATTERN WILL PROVIDE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND A VERY DRY
WEATHER FORECAST WITH A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG AT PGD-LAL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT EASTERLY
AND BECOME WESTERLY BY 18-21Z AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z WED AND SKIES REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECOMING NEAR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A REINFORCING AREA OF DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND
30 PERCENT TODAY AND 25 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DURATIONS WILL BE GREATER THAN FOUR HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR PENINSULA WITH A RED FLAG WARNING REQUIRED FOR POLK
COUNTY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  66  83  61 /   5   5   5   5
FMY  87  64  86  63 /  10   5  10   5
GIF  86  60  86  60 /  20   5  10   5
SRQ  82  62  82  61 /   5   5   5   5
BKV  84  55  84  49 /  10   5   5   5
SPG  82  68  81  66 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...35/JOHNSON