Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2012

Tornado Watch 600

August 31, 20125 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 31, 2012, 1:56 PM CDT for 5 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2012, 1:56 PM CDT (18:56 UTC)
Expired
Aug 31, 2012, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 70 counties

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Bond County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pike County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Pike County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Dyer County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 2:44 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXGreene, Jersey, Pike31 min
Aug 31, 2:48 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXMadison17 min
Aug 31, 3:27 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXGreene, Pike48 min
Aug 31, 4:20 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHBollinger, Wayne25 min
Aug 31, 4:29 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHBollinger, Cape Girardeau31 min
Aug 31, 4:40 PM CDTTornado WarningPAHBollinger23 min
Aug 31, 5:34 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXLincoln, Saint Charles11 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 298 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2012-08-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 947 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2012-08-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -60 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
947 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-143 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1049 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

376 
WWUS20 KWNS 311902
SEL0
SPC WW 311902
ARZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
       SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
       FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
       SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
       FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ALTON ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO
SFC HEATING ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS IN ERN QUADRANT OF REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ISAAC. AREA VWP DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LVL SHEAR
FOR LOW-LVL MESOS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES GIVEN RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE/LOW
LCLS. WHILE LOW LVL SHEAR IN WW REGION IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY IN THE LWR MS VLY...LOW LVL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT
STEEPER AND MAY YIELD A SIMILAR SVR THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19035.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 30, 9:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCPhillips5 hr
Aug 31, 1:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene64 min
Aug 31, 6:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett and 1 more89 min
Aug 31, 3:53 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCass, Champaign, Christian, Clay, Coles, Cumberland and 15 more5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2012Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2012Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2012Every tornado watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.