Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1925

September 8, 2012Allegany County, Garrett County, Maryland; 26 counties in Pennsylvania; 8 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 8, 2012, 5:00 AM EDT for Allegany County, Garrett County, Maryland; 26 counties in Pennsylvania; 8 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 8, 2012, 5:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC)
Expired
Sep 8, 2012, 6:00 AM EDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 36 counties

Allegany County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Elk County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Forest County, PA, Greene County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Barbour County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Marion County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Preston County, WV, Taylor County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 00:00Z on 2012-09-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 587 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 00:00Z on 2012-09-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 21 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
587 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1511 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

775 
ACUS11 KWNS 080901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080900
PAZ000-MDZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-081000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...NRN WV...WRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 080900Z - 081000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST WITH A CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVING INTO WRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT MAY INCREASE AS
THE LINE MOVES INTO CNTRL PA BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING UPON HOW THE LINE
ACTS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A FINE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR THE
PA-OH STATE-LINE AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LINE HAS SHOWN SOME
INCREASED ORGANIZATION WITH LIGHTNING INCREASING AND SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ECHOES WITHIN THE LINE. THIS IS LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE STRONG FORCING AND COULD ALSO BE A RESULT OF AN
ENHANCED IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO WRN AND
CNTRL PA...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 250
J/KG. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE LINE COULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THE
CONVECTION REACHES A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CNTRL PA
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. FOR THIS
REASON...THE LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WW ISSUANCE
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS PA AND NRN WV
EARLY THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   42047904 42027980 41898040 41458050 40708036 39248072
            39028018 39497868 40537783 41667817 42047904

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 8, 11:38 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery and 2 more97 min
Sep 8, 12:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll and 13 more9 hr
Sep 8, 1:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester7 hr
Sep 8, 2:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 9 more93 min
Sep 8, 3:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSaint Mary's, Somerset65 min
Sep 8, 4:22 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester and 6 more53 min
Sep 8, 12:57 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Crawford, Erie, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango2 hr
Sep 8, 8:42 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerks, Bradford, Carbon, Clinton, Columbia, Cumberland and 18 more93 min
Sep 8, 12:40 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne and 1 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.