Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1913
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 7, 2012, 1:41 PM CDT for 53 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 7, 2012, 1:41 PM CDT (18:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 7, 2012, 3:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 53 counties
Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Saline County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Warren County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1095 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -182 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1368 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 256 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 257 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 5.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
380
ACUS11 KWNS 071841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071841
MOZ000-072015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071841Z - 072015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY
ABOUT 2000Z AS THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN KS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED EWD ATOP A
WWD/NWD-GRADUALLY-SLOPING FRONT THAT INTERSECTS THE SFC FROM N-CNTRL
TO SWRN MO INTO NERN OK. AS THIS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC FRONT WHERE
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG...IT SHOULD
INTENSIFY WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. ALSO...A BAND OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPING INVOF A FRONTAL SEGMENT IN N-CNTRL
MO MAY EVOLVE INTO DEEPER CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 20-35
KT...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES PER SPRINGFIELD VWP
DATA...SUGGEST ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
OF CONCERN...WITH SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 36689399 37339454 38849447 39409305 39689171 38779098
37689099 36749166 36529311 36689399SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Audrain, Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone and 57 more | 6 hr |
| Sep 7, 3:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 7, 5:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Dunklin, Mississippi and 7 more | 7 hr |
| Sep 7, 6:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Dent, Douglas, Howell, Iron, Jefferson and 12 more | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.