Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1258 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION IS TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS
EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
MIDLAND TO CHILDRESS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP EASTWARD. EXPECT
LINE TO MOVE TO A SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE AROUND 00Z...BUT MAY SEE A
FEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO TAFS MAY BE UPDATED FOR THAT
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AT KABI.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE I-10
CORRIDOR. KSOA AND KJCT HAVE AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PATCHES OF
MVFR STRATUS...MAINLY BETWEEN 9-12Z.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

DISCUSSION...

LOOK FOR VERY CHALLENGING FLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION BELOW HAS DETAILS.

AVIATION...

AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS TO AIR TRAFFIC WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...VERY STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING. WITH
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...CEILING BASES WILL BE RAGGED. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH SURFACE
WINDS FOR MOST OF TODAY. SOME GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 30 KNOTS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PLAN FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
NORTH...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

HUBER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

SHORT TERM...

AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR EL PASO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS PACIFIC FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES IN THEIR DAY ONE OUTLOOK...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...CENTERED ON SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE GOOD VEERING
WITH HEIGHT AND BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KNOTS. THUS...I WOULD
EXPECT SOME SUPERCELLS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY FROM 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON TO 06Z TONIGHT. AGAIN...I AGREE WITH THE RISK
ASSESSMENT FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WELL DEVELOPED MID LATITUDE
CYCLONES LIKE THIS ONE ALWAYS PRESENT THE RISK OF TORNADOES.
BUT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA WHERE
BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE
FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. I DO EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SO...HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S LOOK ON TRACK.

HUBER

LONG TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY IN THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY
MORNING. I LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH MOST
CONVECTION ENDING BY 18Z. NORTH WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY...AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL BY ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH NIGHTS WILL RANGE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS TAPS INTO SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE WHICH RESULTS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A DRY SOLUTION.
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IF MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DANIELS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 82  56  81  53  82 /  50  50  10   5   0
SAN ANGELO 	 84  55  83  53  81 /  50  50  10   5   5
JUNCTION 	 85  65  83  55  83 /  30  60  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
201 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-141915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
201 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
214 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ098-131945-
HASKELL TX-
214 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR HASKELL COUNTY...

AT 211 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
RULE...OR ABOUT 16 MILES WEST OF HASKELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL VEHICLE DENTS...
  MINOR INJURY POSSIBLE...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCHESTER BY 230 PM CDT
  O'BRIEN BY 235 PM CDT
  US-277 NEAR THE HASKELL-KNOX COUNTY LINE AND WEINERT BY 245 PM CDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3332 9947 3304 9997 3307 10000 3331 10000
      3341 9988 3340 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 228DEG 35KT 3320 9997

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
221 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ049-131945-
FISHER TX-
221 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR FISHER COUNTY...

AT 216 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HOBBS...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF SWEETWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  A FEW LOOSE OBECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...
  DANGEROUS WALKWAYS...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HITSON BY 245 PM CDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3294 10015 3286 10014 3288 10014 3265 10048
      3278 10062 3297 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 228DEG 35KT 3278 10046