Red Flag Warning 7, NWS San Angelo, TX

605 
WWUS84 KSJT 022056
RFWSJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
256 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012


TXZ076-022200-
/O.CAN.KSJT.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120303T0100Z/
CROCKETT-
256 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CROCKETT COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS AT 20 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL REMAIN BELOW OUR 20 MPH
THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WE NO LONGER EXPECT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CROCKETT COUNTY.

$$



HUBER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...
THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OK...TO
LAWTON...TO BROWNFIELD AS OF 08Z. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS
MOVING ACROSS KS WITH A STRONG H25 JET EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A DRYLINE
HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...DROPPING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WSW. THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...A STRONG H7 JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRANS
PECOS REGION TODAY AND WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING...WE WILL TAP
INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND MIDDAY BUT BY AROUND 2 PM WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE WEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH. THIS WILL KEEP ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH AFTER SUNSET AIDED IN PART BY A
SECONDARY PUSH BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE FALLING BELOW 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

JOHNSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...WITH A
RESULTING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...CLOSING OFF OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...GULF
MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE. A TIGHTENING DRYLINE SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA AND
CURVING NORTHEAST INTO THE RED RIVER AREA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
CWA DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
BY LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAINFALL
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME 60S OVER THE BIG COUNTRY ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. POST FRONTAL MORNING LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.
MORNING LOWS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST WAS QUITE COMPLICATED GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING AND ANTICIPATED VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CROCKETT COUNTY...BUT DROPPED FOR OTHER
COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO LESS THAN
20 PERCENT EVERYWHERE...EXCLUDING MAYBE THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY.
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED WEST OF A ROBERT LEE TO SONORA
LINE WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO LESS THAN 10 DEGREES. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY BUT ONCE WE HIT THE
CRITICAL SURFACE TEMP /UPPER 70S/...VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WINDS AT 20FT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 MPH IN CROCKETT COUNTY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 MPH FARTHER EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THE FARTHER
EAST YOU GO WITH AROUND 10 MPH BEING MOST COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
BIG COUNTRY...HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. WHAT ALL OF THIS
MEANS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND
CONCHO VALLEY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CROCKETT
COUNTY.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AROUND SUNSET BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 03Z AS A SECONDARY PUSH BEHIND THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT AFTER 01Z...ENDING THE THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FOR
SATURDAY. WE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20FT WINDS NEAR 15 MPH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 71  36  59  37  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO 	 78  37  60  33  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
JUNCTION 	 81  41  63  31  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CROCKETT.

&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
652 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-030100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
652 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THE MAIN HAZARD WILL AGAIN BE FOR ANY FIRE TO SPREAD VERY QUICKLY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.