Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
348 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT COMING IN AT THE VALUES GUIDANCE WAS
INDICATING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS JUST NOT
AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED. HPC HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS MAX OVERNIGHT
PRECIP BY ABOUT AN INCH...SO WE WILL DELAY ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR TONIGHT AS GROUNDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES.

SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL STILL BE IN PLAY
AND LIKELY MORE OF A PRIMARY THREAT THAN FLOODING. THE AREA IS
FAIRLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20...WITH THE FRONT STILL
MARCHING SOUTH. THE SEVERE WEATHER FOCUS WILL STILL BE PRIMARILY
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE
MORNING SOUNDING STILL SHOWED SOMEWHAT OF A MID LEVEL CAP...AND IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS LIMITING FEATURE STILL
EXIST ON THE EVENING SOUNDING.

THE FORECAST REMAINS WET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE CUT OFF LOW
IN THE ROCKIES WILL SEND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR THESE
DISTURBANCES TO TAP INTO...BUT SOME DRYING WILL BE OBSERVED IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL LIFT
NORTH RETURNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

A STRONG 5O KT LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SET UP
TOGETHER NICELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO HELP ENHANCE RAINFALL ACTIVITY...SO
OUR HEAVIEST RAIN MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. THE EXTENDED
TEMPS ARE NEAR MEX NUMBERS...AND I JUST GENERALLY SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE ON NAM AND MAV NUMBERS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS.

ELEVEN

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM KTRL...TO
KDEQ...TO KPBF. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW STG TSTMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME SITES HAVE
MANAGED TO IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL
AFTER 09/00Z...AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVERTAKES THE REGION. S/SE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND REMAIN GUSTY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  55  44  60  54 / 100  60  70  80  70
MLU  47  53  42  64  56 / 100  80  50  60  70
DEQ  42  59  38  59  51 / 100  30  40  80  70
TXK  42  56  40  59  53 / 100  40  50  80  70
ELD  43  56  40  63  53 / 100  60  40  60  70
TYR  44  52  44  55  54 / 100  50  70  80  70
GGG  46  54  45  57  55 / 100  50  70  80  70
LFK  51  54  47  58  58 / 100  80  70  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

11/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1155 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SHAPING UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO TO FOUR INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
THEN IT IS EXPECTED BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SURFACE LOW
FORMING ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
CUT OFF UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PROVIDE POSSIBLE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
RAIN DOES APPEAR TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH WATER BECOMES AN ISSUE.

ELEVEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

ARZ060-061-071-082300-
HEMPSTEAD-LAFAYETTE-NEVADA-
402 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CST...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     HEMPSTEAD...LAFAYETTE AND NEVADA...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BLUFF CITY...BODCAW...ROSSTON AND WILLISVILLE...

AT 354 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO HOPE. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH.  .

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

VII

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
419 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

TXZ097-108>112-082315-
BOWIE-CAMP-CASS-FRANKLIN-MORRIS-TITUS-
419 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CST...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     FRANKLIN...MORRIS...TITUS...CASS...CAMP AND BOWIE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     CASON...COOKVILLE...DAINGERFIELD...DALBY SPRINGS...LEESBURG...
     MOUNT PLEASANT...NAPLES...NEWSOME...OMAHA...PITTSBURG...
     PURLEY...ROCKY BRANCH...SCROGGINS AND US 259 AND I 30
     INTERSECTION...

AT 417 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF NEWSOME...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LEESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

VII

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
420 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

TXZ125-126-136>138-082315-
GREGG-HARRISON-MARION-SMITH-UPSHUR-
420 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CST...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...SMITH AND UPSHUR...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BIG SANDY...CLARKSVILLE CITY...DIANA...EAST MOUNTAIN...
     GLADEWATER...HARLETON...LIBERTY CITY...LONGVIEW...ORE CITY...
     WEST MOUNTAIN...WHITE OAK AND WOODLAWN...

AT 417 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG SANDY...OR 7
MILES WEST OF GLADEWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

VII

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
458 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>003-TXZ112-126-090000-
BOSSIER-CADDO-CASS-COLUMBIA-LAFAYETTE-MARION-MILLER-UNION-WEBSTER-
458 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CST...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA...LAFAYETTE AND MILLER...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
     UNION...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     MARION AND CASS...
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     CADDO...BOSSIER AND WEBSTER...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ATLANTA...BRADLEY...BUSSEY...CALION...CANFIELD...DODDRIDGE...EL
     DORADO...EMERSON...LAWSON...LISBON...MACEDONIA...MAGNOLIA...
     MCNEIL...MOUNT HOLLY...NORPHLET...RAVANNA...SMACKOVER...
     SMITHLAND...TAYLOR...URBANA...VILLAGE...WALDO...WELCOME...
     WESSON...CULLEN...GILLIAM...HOSSTON...IDA...PLAIN DEALING...
     RODESSA...SPRINGHILL...VIVIAN...BEREA...BIVINS...JEFFERSON...
     KILDARE...LODI AND MCLEOD...

AT 451 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR
JEFFERSON TEXAS...TO VIVIAN LOUISIANA...TO MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE STORMS
WERE MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO NEAR TWO INCHES. PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR
IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH THESE STORMS.

VII

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
508 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

ARZ059-070-TXZ097-111-112-090000-
BOWIE-CASS-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-MORRIS-
508 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CST...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     LITTLE RIVER AND MILLER...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     MORRIS...CASS AND BOWIE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ASHDOWN...MANDEVILLE...OGDEN...RICHMOND...TEXARKANA...HOOKS...
     MAUD...NAPLES...NASH...NEW BOSTON...OMAHA...REDWATER...ROCKY
     BRANCH...SIMMS AND WAKE VILLAGE...

AT 503 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKY BRANCH...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SIMMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO NEAR TWO INCHES. PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR
IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH THESE STORMS.

VII