Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Charleston, WV

819 
WWUS51 KRLX 292215
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

OHC009-053-079-087-105-163-WVC035-053-105-107-292245-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-120629T2245Z/
ATHENS OH-GALLIA OH-JACKSON OH-LAWRENCE OH-MEIGS OH-VINTON OH-
MASON WV-JACKSON WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
615 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR VINTON...MEIGS...NORTHERN LAWRENCE...JACKSON...GALLIA AND
SOUTHERN ATHENS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOUTHWESTERN WOOD...
WIRT...NORTHERN JACKSON AND MASON COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALBANY TO RADCLIFFE TO 9
MILES WEST OF MABEE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALBANY TO 8
MILES EAST OF WELLSTON TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORTSMOUTH...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
134 AND 166 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS 
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL FROM THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY
FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3937 8275 3938 8252 3940 8251 3939 8230
      3941 8228 3904 8128 3893 8149 3875 8174
      3859 8224 3860 8227 3853 8241 3869 8271
      3875 8270 3876 8267 3884 8266 3885 8276
      3894 8276 3895 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 301DEG 61KT 3920 8203 3904 8231
          3884 8278

$$

28

812 
WWUS51 KRLX 292242
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
642 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

OHC009-053-079-087-105-163-WVC035-053-105-107-292250-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-120629T2245Z/
ATHENS OH-GALLIA OH-JACKSON OH-LAWRENCE OH-MEIGS OH-VINTON OH-
MASON WV-JACKSON WV-WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
642 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR VINTON...MEIGS...NORTHERN
LAWRENCE...JACKSON...GALLIA AND SOUTHERN ATHENS COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO...AND SOUTHWESTERN WOOD...WIRT...NORTHERN JACKSON AND MASON 
COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS AND 
HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3937 8275 3938 8252 3940 8251 3939 8230
      3941 8228 3904 8128 3893 8149 3875 8174
      3859 8224 3860 8227 3853 8241 3869 8271
      3875 8270 3876 8267 3884 8266 3885 8276
      3894 8276 3895 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 301DEG 61KT 3897 8155 3881 8183
          3861 8230

$$

28

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
521 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
EVEN WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND THE HEAT
HOLDS WITH HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
515 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS...MAINLY JUST TO THE CLOUD
FORECAST...OTHERWISE CURRENT TIMING OF MCS MOVING THROUGH AREA
LOOKS GOOD IN THE GRIDS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 70-80MPH PLUS WINDS
ALONG WITH DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
RADAR ALSO INDICATES 60-70KT VELOCITY SIGNATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERY TRICKY FORECAST IN ALL ASPECTS AS MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY...EVEN WITH A WEAK FRONT
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. IN THIS SCENARIO...THE HI RES MODELS WILL BE
USED EXCLUSIVELY TO DETERMINE WHAT OUR MAIN PLAYER WILL BE FOR
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

THE MAIN PLAYER TONIGHT IS AN IMPRESSIVE MCS COMING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AT TIME. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MCS WILL ROLL THRU AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY TONIGHT...WILL HAVE HIGH
POPS NORTH WITH LITTLE FAR SOUTH...DUE TO CAP BEING STRONGER SOUTH.
POPS SHOULD END QUICKLY REMINDER OF NIGHT BEHIND THE EARLY MCS.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL CONCENTRATE LOWER AFTERNOON POPS UP NORTH CLOSER
TO THE FRONT...BUT AGAIN MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE KEY SUCH
AS LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE MCS.

WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND
COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...WILL HAVE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE LOW LANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY. TEMPS QUITE WARM TONIGHT AND
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HARD TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MODEL VARIABILITY IN MESOSCALE FEATURES. SO HAVE
GENERAL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...WITH MAX POPS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...THEN DROPPING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT. IF AN MCS FORMS
UPSTREAM...HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED AS DETAILS ARE RESOLVED. HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES COULD GREATLY VARY DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE
CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS MOVE THROUGH. NO CONFIDENCE TO DETAIL
THIS AT THIS POINT...SO STAYED MORE WITH THE SYNOPTIC TEMPERATURE
PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. IN GENERAL...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US...WITH HOT
WEATHER STICKING AROUND. WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE THE GFS SHOWS A TRAIN OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES/CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION...MIXED WITH
SOME POTENTIAL DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT AS WELL. THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS MUCH MORE DIURNAL. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THINK THAT THE
GFS IS REASONABLE IN HINTING AT MCS/S...BUT OF COURSE TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE AN MCS TO ROLL ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z TONIGHT...AFFECTING PKB...CKB AND
EKN....WITH CRW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS. OUTSIDE CONVECTION...VFR. ONCE CONVECTION
PASSES...EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR FOG AT THESE TERMINALS UNTIL 13Z.

AFTER 13Z...VFR WITH GENERALLY SCT050.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION MAY DROP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AFFECT CRW...HTS AND BKW TERMINALS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

VAZ003-004-WVZ033>035-301930-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014>020-027>029-
301930-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS...CONSIDERABLE
LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS WERE MOST LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING WERE MOST LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ105-WVZ005-013-024>026-030>032-301930-
LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE-LINCOLN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS WERE MOST
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING WERE MOST LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ036-038>040-046-047-301930-
FAYETTE-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
STRONG WIND GUSTS...CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS
WERE MOST LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS WERE MOST
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ037-301930-
NICHOLAS-
320 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS WERE MOST
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WIND
GUSTS...CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...AND LOCAL DOWNPOURS WERE MOST
LIKELY WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM