Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Raleigh, NC

790 
WWUS52 KRAH 230000
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCC057-123-167-230010-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-120523T0015Z/
DAVIDSON NC-MONTGOMERY NC-STANLY NC-
800 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN STANLY...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS 
NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU OBSERVED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE 
HAIL...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL 
FREE 1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...OR NOTIFY YOUR NEAREST LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3551 8029 3551 8019 3556 8022 3558 8007
      3550 8006 3532 8009 3532 8031 3547 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 180DEG 6KT 3546 8020

$$

WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
216 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAGGY 500 MB TROUGH ALOFT. A VORT MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. AS
EXPECTED CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES. CURRENTLY ONE BOUNDARY SET UP OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
A SECOND OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE A MESO-LOW HAS SHOWN UP IN
THE SURFACE OBSERVATION. ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED IN THIS VICINITY. WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CERTAINLY A FEW WARNINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
FROM HAIL AND THE SECONDARY THREAT BEING WINDS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE WE SAW CONVECTION
FIRST START TO BLOSSOM. THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 5.5 DEGREES. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG...THE INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE BUT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NON-EXISTENT AT THIS TIME. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST AS PW VALUES HERE ARE OVER
1.5 INCHES WITH 1-1.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. STRAIGHT AND
SHORT HODOGRAPHS AT THE CURRENT TIME BECOME LONGER AND MORE CURVED
LATER THIS EVENING (AFTER 0Z) AS THE VORT MAX GETS CLOSER TO THE
AREA BUT THE TIMING WILL BE OFF AS HEATING WILL BE GONE FOR THE DAY.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH HIGHER
TEMPS IN THE EAST AND THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD. WINDS AT
MOST STATIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DISTURB AN
ALREADY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT CONVECTION TO WIND
DOWN DURING THE PERIOD FROM 0-3Z. THERE IS A VERY MINIMAL RISK FOR
SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS FROM 9-12Z BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
60S.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE MAPS SHOW A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CENTERED AT THE 400 MB LEVEL CROSSING THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. CROSS
SECTIONS OF OMEGA SHOW THE BEST LIFTING BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. A SIMILAR SETUP TO TUESDAY AS FAR AS INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR GO WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING
AND ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. COVERAGE SHOULD BE BETTER IN THE
EAST VS THE WEST DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT SHEAR COULD BE A
LITTLE BIT BETTER IN THE SOUTHWEST MAKING THAT AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO SEVERE STORMS...DESPITE LESS COVERAGE. THEREFORE WE COULD AGAIN
SEE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS ACROSS THE BOARD THAN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...YIELDING A BIT WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALTHOUGH THEY STILL WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOW 80S NORTH TO
MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE TO
DECREASE POP FRIDAY AND RAISE TEMPS EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN BUILDING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY... NEW ENGLAND...
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...
THE MID LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO WARM WHICH WILL INTRODUCE MID LEVEL
CAPPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING FRIDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 20-30 POP FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF THE CURRENT
UPPER TROUGH AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. EXPECT INCREASING
SUNSHINE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S... WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS. MODELS BUILD
THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL RAISE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT NEAR 90 FOR THE NW PIEDMONT EACH DAY.

THE BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER... TUESDAY STILL LOOKS HOT AND LIKELY DRY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT UPPER 80S NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED AT EASTERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE BUT ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS ENTER THE VICINITY OF
THE AIRFIELDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BETWEEN
1-3Z AT MOST SITES. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS
AND MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS
CONVECTION INCREASES...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE 24
HOURS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR SOME
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS FROM 9-12Z AT ALL STATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME. ALONG WITH THE LOW CEILINGS SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. FOR
WEDNESDAY EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY VFR DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...ELLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-232000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL... AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE
TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
552 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             4 S BUTNER              36.08N  78.76W
05/22/2012  E0.75 INCH       GRANVILLE          NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200270

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
601 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             2 NE GORMAN             36.07N  78.79W
05/22/2012  E1.00 INCH       DURHAM             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POLICE OFFICER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING THE
            GROUND ON I85

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200271

SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
642 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ038-073-074-083-084-222345-
ANSON-DAVIDSON-MONTGOMERY-RICHMOND-STANLY-
642 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS STANLY...RICHMOND...
MONTGOMERY...DAVIDSON AND ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

AT 641 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ALBEMARLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE NEAR
LOCUST AND NORTHWEST OF POLKTON.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE NEW
LONDON...BADIN...NORWOOD...AND MOUNT GILEAD.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8035 3551 8019 3561 8010 3558 8006
      3551 8006 3551 8000 3518 7985 3482 8001
      3481 8032 3482 8033 3519 8029 3516 8035
      3517 8038 3516 8046 3520 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 231DEG 5KT 3537 8019

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ038-230000-
DAVIDSON-
704 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS DAVIDSON COUNTY BEFORE 800
PM EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
WEST OF HIGH ROCK...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALISBURY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LINWOOD.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 83 AND 96.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8024 3571 8005 3567 8006 3559 8023
      3565 8031 3567 8031 3568 8034 3569 8034
      3571 8033 3572 8034 3571 8038 3573 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 231DEG 8KT 3563 8038

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
721 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ021-022-230015-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-
721 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST GUILFORD AND
FORSYTH COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

AT 721 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WALKERTOWN...OR ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINSTON-SALEM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WALKERTOWN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 8025 3626 7991 3624 7992 3603 8015
      3613 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 213DEG 6KT 3615 8018

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
729 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ084-230030-
RICHMOND-
729 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHMOND COUNTY THROUGH 830
PM EDT...

AT 729 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EAST ROCKINGHAM...OR ABOUT OVER ROCKINGHAM...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROCKINGHAM...ELLERBE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM
YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 7987 3488 7987 3491 7985 3495 7987
      3498 7987 3499 7989 3502 7990 3505 7988
      3506 7990 3513 7991 3512 7962 3515 7960
      3483 7965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 179DEG 10KT 3492 7976

WSS